The LT3000 Blog

Eclectic musings on value investing, business, economics, and life

Monday, 16 October 2017

Why I (and the market) are not worried about nuclear war with North Korea, and why Richard Thaler is wrong

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Nobel Laureate Richard Thaler was recently reported as expressing bemusement about why global stock markets continued to levitate, and parti...
Thursday, 12 October 2017

The (real) truth about our debt

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Livewire Markets today posted an article by Stephen Koukoulas from Market Economics, entitled "The Truth About our Debt". The full...
Friday, 11 August 2017

James Damore vs. The Google Archipelago

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I was distressed and saddened this week to learn that Google had decided to fire James Damore for his circulation of an internal memo that d...
Wednesday, 9 August 2017

Michael Kors +21.5%, and why value investing is so hard

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Overnight (I reside in Asia), Michael Kors (KORS US) announced an above-expectation fiscal 1Q18 result, which sent the stock up 21.5% to US$...
Sunday, 6 August 2017

BMW & bargains in plain sight

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If the bears are to be believed, we are living in a world of overvalued global markets inflated by excessive central bank stimulus, that off...
Saturday, 5 August 2017

Deflationary delusions, the wealth effect, and the direction of causality

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Of the many absurdities traditional economic theory has served up, one that I find particularly bemusing is the following: that deflation is...
Monday, 31 July 2017

Seeing through the stock-based compensation ruse

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A large and perennial frustration I have when researching companies in the US is the propensity of many companies to add back stock-based co...
Friday, 28 July 2017

Why I think digital currencies will go to zero

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In 2011, my girlfriend at the time, who knew next to nothing about finance and investments, asked me out of the blue if she should buy some ...
Sunday, 23 July 2017

The 'ick factor', and Ambac as an interesting long

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I have found that a fruitful place to look for good investment ideas is amongst stocks that suffer from what might best be described as the ...
Wednesday, 19 July 2017

Time to take a punt on Nagacorp?

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Nagacorp (3918 HK) is a company I have followed for a while. The company owns a first-class asset - an exclusive monopoly license to operate...
Saturday, 15 July 2017

Unicorn bubbles, Clutter, and the value of time

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In recent years, Silicon Valley has witnessed something of a technology bubble Mark II, although this time the excesses have been concentrat...
Tuesday, 16 May 2017

E-cigarattes; cultural bias; pluralistic society; and warped incentives

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Permit me a little bit of a rant here, but it is actually a very important case study in public policy gone awry, and how vested interests c...

Negative gearing & surging rents: Is Andrew King disingenuous; delusional; or just plain dumb?

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The NZ Herald recently reported on the Labour Party's proposal to eliminate negative gearing tax deductions for property investors. The ...
Saturday, 4 March 2017

J-walking, and how investors' risk perceptions are irrationally distorted

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I attended the University of Auckland between 2001-05. Throughout this period I had to J-walk back and forth across a busy street regularly ...
Thursday, 2 March 2017

A (satirical) interview with the co-founder of dollar-discount.com

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Today it is my great pleasure to introduce to you the co-founder and CEO of dollar-discount.com. Since its founding two years ago, the compa...
Wednesday, 1 March 2017

Brokerage/ETF price wars, and implications for the cost of capital

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The Wall Street Journal reported this morning that Fidelity has announced a reduction in its online trading commission rates from US$7.95 to...
Tuesday, 28 February 2017

Giving Money3 a wide berth

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I recently took a quick look at ASX-listed Money3 (MNY AU). A well-known NZ-based small-cap outfit own it and have labelled it one of their ...
Monday, 27 February 2017

Vacationing in Japan, and going long Yen

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I took a break from blogging (and more than casual on-the-road research) last week by taking a quick vacation to Japan - a long overdue firs...
Thursday, 16 February 2017

Why I worry more about a melt-up than a melt-down

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Most stock market investors worry incessantly about the risk of a potential market melt down. I don’t. I worry about the risk of a market m...
Wednesday, 15 February 2017

Fortress Investment Group; buying breakouts; position sizing; and perpetual self-loathing

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I woke up to a pleasant but also slightly bittersweet surprise today over my morning coffee – overnight (I reside in Asia) Softbank had a...
Tuesday, 14 February 2017

Martial arts & the UFC; Michael Lewis; and why rouge punters predicted the GFC, not the mainstream

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Michael Lewis has stated that what inspired his fantastic book The Big Short (subsequently made into a Hollywood movie) was the mystery and ...

Crisis investing, prejudice, 'blink' investing, and Ferrexpo as a compelling long

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I like to go hunting for bargains in off-the-beaten-path places, and particularly in areas of distress. When a figurative financial bomb ...
Monday, 13 February 2017

Bubble-trouble with Australian/NZ mortgage risk-weightings

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Approaching a decade on from the global financial crisis (GFC), I continue to remain amazed by how little the world has learnt. Indeed, Aust...
Sunday, 12 February 2017

Do tax cuts for the rich help or harm the economy? It depends!

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A frequent source of public policy confusion is the issue of whether corporate tax cuts/tax cuts for the rich (the two are similar but not...
Saturday, 11 February 2017

Why the CAPE multiple is fatally flawed

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The Cyclically-Adjusted PE (CAPE) multiple – usually calculated as the market price divided by 10yr average inflation-adjusted EPS – is fas...
Wednesday, 8 February 2017

KORS 3Q result no kors for concern

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The LT3000 Blog got off to a seemingly inauspicious start by posting a long thesis on KORS a day before the company’s 3Q result came in s...

Beijing Capital International Airport: Ready for take-off

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Over the past few months, I have accumulated a 70bp position in Beijing Capital International Airport (694 HK) at an average price of HK$7....
Tuesday, 7 February 2017

Michael Kors is out of fashion

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I recently initiated a 20bp position in Michael Kors (KORS US @ $41.09) – the global luxury goods company run (Chief Creative Director) b...
Monday, 6 February 2017

Welcome

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Welcome to The LT3000 Blog. I have recently left a decade-long occupation as a professional securities analyst to pursue my passion as ...
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About Me

Lyall Taylor
Former sell-side Equity Analyst/regional Head of Research; long time stock market enthusiast; and current Portfolio Manager of a self-seeded fund (LTCP Fund) on Wealth Management Alliance's (WMA) platform. If you are an accredited investor and have investment interest, you can contact me at lta@wma.asia for further information.
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