The LT3000 Blog

There is a very old saying in markets - that the four most dangerous words in the English language are 'this time is different', and...

I am often asked why I expect value investing (traditionally defined as focusing on buying sectors of the market trading at relatively low m...

Gold has been a longtime investment favourate of many investors, despite its lackluster long term track record,* and not just for perpetual ...

To anyone who has been paying attention to issues of free speech and radical liberalism in places such as the US (and increasingly in most W...

It is popular in markets to make definitive predictions about the future, and then position one's portfolio to benefit should those pred...

In his recent state-of-the-nation address, Russian president Vladimir Putin demonstrated new nuclear capabilities the nation has been develo...

In markets, there is a frequent biasing of the general over the specific, and it is a recurring source of opportunity for investors that are...

It's an age-old question, and is one that is usually answered a lot less well than it should be. As is usually the case for questions li...

I took a quick look at Expedia (EXPE US) last night (yes, this is indeed how I like to spend many of my Saturday evenings). Expedia is one o...

It is popular in many financial circles to compare the level of asset prices (which is the inverse of the cost of capital) to 100-year marke...

Despite the putative universal overvaluation of global equity markets at present (although the current correction, which Jim Grant would des...

It's been a eventful week for markets. After a long period of subdued volatility and steady (and accelerating) gains, global markets suf...

The market is supposed to be efficient. There are a lot of smart and hungry investors out there competing vigorously with one another to fea...

A few days ago, news emerged that Japanese cryptocurrency exchange Coincheck had been hacked, with more than US$500m worth of digital tokens...

Suppose I was to offer you two job opportunities. For one, I would pay you a flat US$500k a year, in perpetuity (the value option). For the ...

There is currently a generally held view that one of the biggest risks global equity markets face at present is that interest rates rise mor...

I am often asked how I source my ideas - particularly operating as a one-man band running a global equity fund. I currently have approximate...

The US pharmaceutical industry is fundamentally broken. As has now been widely publicised, drug prices have been rapidly rising for several...

It is often said that successful investors require a paradoxical blend of confidence and humility. Confidence, it is argued, is essential s...

We are currently living in an era of increasing societal polarisation, in which the level of popular angst, outrage, and disagreement over v...

I am a big fan of multi-disciplinary thinking. I think it leads to vastly superior judgement, and in the field of investing, superior judgem...

We are currently living in an era of putative radical disruption. New players such as Elon Musk's Tesla Motors are - it is argued - disr...

I really can't resist a quick addendum to my recent bitcoin post . I thought I had said all that needed to be said. But as Bitcoin'...

I really hate to do this. There has already been an inordinate wastage of humanity's collective time spilling ink on Bitcoin in recent m...

I started this blog nine months ago, and have since published 30 articles (excluding this post). On average, each article takes me about fou...

Back in February, I wrote about how my biggest fear in markets was not a melt down, but rather a melt up - a risk I felt investors continued...

Nobel Laureate Richard Thaler was recently reported as expressing bemusement about why global stock markets continued to levitate, and parti...

Livewire Markets today posted an article by Stephen Koukoulas from Market Economics, entitled "The Truth About our Debt". The full...

I was distressed and saddened this week to learn that Google had decided to fire James Damore for his circulation of an internal memo that d...

Overnight (I reside in Asia), Michael Kors (KORS US) announced an above-expectation fiscal 1Q18 result, which sent the stock up 21.5% to US$...

If the bears are to be believed, we are living in a world of overvalued global markets inflated by excessive central bank stimulus, that off...

Of the many absurdities traditional economic theory has served up, one that I find particularly bemusing is the following: that deflation is...

A large and perennial frustration I have when researching companies in the US is the propensity of many companies to add back stock-based co...

In 2011, my girlfriend at the time, who knew next to nothing about finance and investments, asked me out of the blue if she should buy some ...

I have found that a fruitful place to look for good investment ideas is amongst stocks that suffer from what might best be described as the ...

Nagacorp (3918 HK) is a company I have followed for a while. The company owns a first-class asset - an exclusive monopoly license to operate...

In recent years, Silicon Valley has witnessed something of a technology bubble Mark II, although this time the excesses have been concentrat...

Permit me a little bit of a rant here, but it is actually a very important case study in public policy gone awry, and how vested interests c...

The NZ Herald recently reported on the Labour Party's proposal to eliminate negative gearing tax deductions for property investors. The ...

I attended the University of Auckland between 2001-05. Throughout this period I had to J-walk back and forth across a busy street regularly ...

Today it is my great pleasure to introduce to you the co-founder and CEO of dollar-discount.com. Since its founding two years ago, the compa...

The Wall Street Journal reported this morning that Fidelity has announced a reduction in its online trading commission rates from US$7.95 to...

I recently took a quick look at ASX-listed Money3 (MNY AU). A well-known NZ-based small-cap outfit own it and have labelled it one of their ...

I took a break from blogging (and more than casual on-the-road research) last week by taking a quick vacation to Japan - a long overdue firs...

Most stock market investors worry incessantly about the risk of a potential market melt down. I don’t. I worry about the risk of a market m...

I woke up to a pleasant but also slightly bittersweet surprise today over my morning coffee – overnight (I reside in Asia) Softbank had a...

Michael Lewis has stated that what inspired his fantastic book The Big Short (subsequently made into a Hollywood movie) was the mystery and ...

I like to go hunting for bargains in off-the-beaten-path places, and particularly in areas of distress. When a figurative financial bomb ...

Approaching a decade on from the global financial crisis (GFC), I continue to remain amazed by how little the world has learnt. Indeed, Aust...

A frequent source of public policy confusion is the issue of whether corporate tax cuts/tax cuts for the rich (the two are similar but not...

The Cyclically-Adjusted PE (CAPE) multiple – usually calculated as the market price divided by 10yr average inflation-adjusted EPS – is fas...

The LT3000 Blog got off to a seemingly inauspicious start by posting a long thesis on KORS a day before the company’s 3Q result came in s...

Over the past few months, I have accumulated a 70bp position in Beijing Capital International Airport (694 HK) at an average price of HK$7....

I recently initiated a 20bp position in Michael Kors (KORS US @ $41.09) – the global luxury goods company run (Chief Creative Director) b...

Welcome to The LT3000 Blog. I have recently left a decade-long occupation as a professional securities analyst to pursue my passion as ...