Thursday 16 August 2018

Is Elon Musk's attempted Tesla privatisation a covert bail-out?

I've been a long time follower and admirer of Elon Musk. I've listened to all his interviews, watched many of his presentations, and read the excellent biography written by Ashlee Vance. The serial entrepreneur has achieved feats of growth and innovation over the past 15 years that ex anti most (myself included) would have considered impossible.

Monday 13 August 2018

A capitulation point in Turkey?

If the media and financial market consensus is to be believed, Turkey is currently in the midst of a veritable financial crisis. Yet in truth, there is no such crisis at present - at least not yet - and although one is certainly possible, that outcome is far from assured. What we actually have at the moment is merely a crisis of confidence (and, perhaps, in domestic civil/political liberties), and for the former, is one that may already be close to peaking. While it is impossible to definitively call any sort of capitulation point, the below chart of the USD/TRY certainly appears to indicate to me that we are either at or very close to the proverbial capitulation point.

Wednesday 1 August 2018

The (real) cautionary tale of David Einhorn

Greenlight Capital's David Einhorn was recently the subject of a widely-circulated hit piece by the Wall Street Journal, which came a few weeks in advance of Einhorn reporting a truly disastrous 18% loss in the first half of 2018 (in rising US markets). This result capped a abysmal 30 month stretch of performance, which has seen the former star's cumulative losses mount to some 30% (during a bull market) - a fall from grace that has attracted considerable media attention.