Thursday, 6 June 2019

Greek update #3: The narrative flips; selling Piraeus

Late last year, I wrote a blog post on the Greek banks, with a particular focus on Eurobank. I discussed how the popular narrative at the time had completely crushed Greek bank share prices, despite clear evidence existing that the economic and banking-industry fundamentals were actually markedly improving, not deteriorating. I took a meaningful position in Eurobank (2.0%), and eventually also about a 50bp position in Piraeus, mostly in the 0.60-1.15 range.

Saturday, 1 June 2019

The (real) way to solve the (real) US trade deficit problem

Last year, I wrote a piece (here) opining that Trump had a point in objecting to the US's large and persistent trade deficit - even if he may have arrived at that conclusion through a different intellectual route than I. I continue to hold that view. However, what I do not support is the means by which Trump is seeking to address the problem, which are both unlikely to solve the problem, and also quite likely to create significant costs in the process - albeit that the US economy could well still end up a net beneficiary of the policies.*