Sunday, 12 January 2020

Demystifying post-GFC economics; the problem with scarcity; interest rates; long political cycles; and the end of history

The post-GFC era has given rise to widespread investor confusion, as macroeconomic and market outcomes have deviated from the received economic wisdom about what 'ought' to have happened. Old hands have been particularly wrong footed, as their tried and true mental and financial models about how the world operates, which worked so well during 1980-2007, have failed them. Traditional monetary policy has stopped working, and many economies (e.g. Europe) have remained sluggish and unresponsive to very low, or even negative, interest rates. Low rates were supposed to stimulate investment and consumption, and yet both have remained weak. "Unprecedented" unconventional monetary stimulus (in quotation marks as very similar policies were tried - with similar results - in Japan during the 1990s) in the form of QE has been undertaken, but despite this vigorous 'money printing' which was expected by many to result in inflation, we have had disinflation bordering on deflation, with inflation stubbornly refusing to rise towards central bankers' 2% trend-rate goal.

Government deficits and debt-to-GDP have risen markedly, and yet long government bond rates have fallen precipitously, in many instances into negative territory - something many previously deemed impossible. Aren't the 'bond vigilantes' supposed to enforce fiscal discipline, and drive up interest rates as the credit-worthiness of governments declines? And despite the general sense of malaise, including often extended periods of weak growth, stock markets have continued to rise, defying widespread calls over the past decade for imminent doom.

Bonds and stocks were also supposed to move in opposite directions, as falling rates signalled deteriorating growth, which was good for bonds but bad for stocks, and vice versa. Many traditional 60/40 stock-bond portfolios are structured on this basis, due to the putative diversification benefits that derive therefrom. And yet stock prices have risen even as bond yields have fallen. Some have concluded from this that 'the bond and stock markets are telegraphing very different messages' (i.e. the stock market that growth is strong and improving; bond markets that it is weak and deteriorating), when in reality they may well be telegraphing a third common variable that has been missed. And more than anything else, there has generally been a pervasive sense of ill-ease; that something is amiss; that surely the Fed and other central banks are singularly to blame; and that unintended negative consequences inevitably await.

So what's going on here, and why has everyone got it so wrong? If you don't understand something, its invariably because you are looking at reality through a false prism, and there is something wrong with the mental models you are using to interpret reality. What has happened is that a lot of investors - many of whom pride themselves of being independent thinkers - have unwittingly accepted a lot of conventional economic wisdom uncritically, without thinking more deeply about what might be happening. The process calls to mind Keynes' famous quote: "Practical men who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influence, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist". And instead of going through the laborious and uncomfortable process of reexamining long-held beliefs, most of these investors have instead contented themselves with simply blaming the Fed, while preparing for the inevitable doom that surely awaits.

I have been giving these issues a lot of thought over the past decade, and I have reached a very different conclusion about what is happening. While the intellectual influences that have contributed to the perspective I outlined below are diverse, and a lot of it are also my own original insights, the Japanese economist Richard Koo has probably contributed more to the development of my thinking of these issues than any other singular source (I highly recommend his book The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics; Dumas' book Bill From the China Shop was also highly influential to me when I read it in 2008). With the mental models I am currently using, which I hope to outline below, there is nothing at all surprising or unusual about what we are currently seeing; indeed, it is exactly what we ought to expect. Some potential/speculative futures are discussed towards the end of the article.


The problem with scarcity

Traditional economics is premised on the fundamental notion of scarcity. This extends to both the consumptive and investment realms, where: (1) consumer wants are considered infinite and always in excess of the financial resources of consumers (which in turn reflect resource constraints in the real economy), requiring those wants be rationed down to the highest priorities; and (2) businesses always have a larger number of investment projects they would like to undertake than the available supply of funding, which requires capital be rationed (which in turn ensures capital has an appreciable cost).

When these criteria are met, traditional monetary policy (and a lot of traditional economic theory) works just fine (and continues to work today in most of the emerging world). If the economy is sluggish, the central bank can lower rates, making access to capital more affordable, and because access to capital was previously a constraining factor holding back demand, the release of this constraint will boost the economy. When rates fall, consumers are able to borrow at more affordable rates to finance their (now slightly less) constrained consumptive desires, while businesses' access to affordable capital rises, allowing them to finance more investment projects, and quicker. Both investment and consumption can therefore be reasonably expected to rise if the cost of capital is lowered (particularly because investment is also linked to the level of consumptive demand - higher consumptive demand requires additional supply-side investment/capacity to meet that demand).

However, if this increase in demand exceeds the ability of the real economy to supply it, inflation will occur. This is what is known as 'overheating'. If the economy is at risk of overheating (or is overheating), the central bank can rotate the stimulatory dial back down, making capital more costly. Businesses are then forced to defer investment activity (typically by paying down debt and steadily accumulating retained earnings from operating cash flow, until they are able to afford to invest in those new projects from internal savings), while consumers are forced to defer debt-fuelled consumption for the same reason, and perhaps pay down debt accumulated in the past cycle as well. Aggregate demand cools, slowing the economy and reducing inflationary pressures (the Philip's Curve works for this reason). The central bank can then loosen rates once again, and the cycle continues.

Aside from central bank intervention, free market interest rates are also expected to behave in a similar fashion, and drive similar outcomes. If the supply of savings exceeds the demand to borrow those savings to consume and/or invest, aggregate demand will weaken, and interest rates will fall. This will lower the cost of capital, encouraging businesses to borrow to invest, and also encouraging investors to take more risk, as 'risk-free' rates of return decline. It also makes consumptive borrowing less costly for consumers, and encourages banks and other financial markets to supply more funds to such borrowers, as alternative high-return uses of capital moderate.

Aside from stimulating the greater use of aggregate savings on the demand side, traditional economics also argues that lower rates reduce the incentive to save, and therefore also act to reduce the aggregate supply of savings (and simultaneously increase consumption, on the basis that consumption is income less savings). Consequently, as rates fall, both the demand to utilise savings will increase and the supply of savings will decline, resulting in a shortage of savings that results in market interest rates rising. The same works in reverse, it is argued - as rates rise, demand for savings to finance investment/consumption declines, while the supply of savings rises as the incentive to save increase (also slowing consumption). This slows the economy (falling investment and consumption), and the growing excess of supply should lead to a decline in interest rates.

This model may seem superficially good and reasonable, but the problem is that the model assumes the existence of perpetual scarcity, which is an unsound assumption - particularly with respect to investment demand, and also the 'incentive force' on saving behaviour. More pointedly, underpinning this model is the assumption that the propensity to save will always fall short of the propensity to invest and/or borrow to consume, which implies that savings are always necessarily scarce, which is a fundamentally flawed assumption.

Keynes noted long ago the 'paradox of thrift' - for any one individual, saving is a good and prudent thing, but from a systemic point of view, saving subtracts demand from the economy, because one person's spending is another person's income. If everyone suddenly saved 50% of their income, the economy would collapse. In order for those savings to continue to circulate in the economy, they have to be used either to finance real capital investment by businesses (either via equity or debt financing), or they need to be borrowed and consumed by some combination of other consumers or the government. If such savings are not utilised, they will plunge the economy into a deflationary depression.

The assumption of perpetual scarcity is most sound with respect to the consumptive realm. Most people would indeed like to consume at rates significantly above their current level of consumption, but are unable to do so as they are fiscally constrained. However, even here, the assumption is imperfect and to some degree problematic. Firstly, the assumption breaks down at the individual level as somebody gets richer. No matter how rich you are, you can only drink one beer at a time, eat one meal at at time, and fly on one jet at a time. The definition of being rich (to me at least) is when you are 'making it faster than you can spend it'. You go away on an expensive vacation, and by the time you come back, you're investments have passively earned more than you have spent many times over. Wealth compounds but time does not. When rich people surpass this threshold, the assumption of scarcity-constrained consumption breaks down, because past this point, they cannot help but save more and more money (unless and until it is donated to charity).

In economic parlance, the 'marginal propensity to consume' declines precipitously as income and wealth accumulates. Furthermore, the demand for consumption-related debt from the affluent also disappears. If you're already rich, why would you need or want to borrow money to finance consumption? This can have systemic (and political) consequences when income and wealth inequality increases materially, as it has in the developed world over the past 40 years (more on this later). It can easily end up resulting in a situation where those who would like to consume more don't have the money, and those that have the money do not want to consume more. Traditional economic models pay absolutely no heed to these critically important 'distributional effects'.

In addition, the assumption that the median person can and will inevitably borrow more and save less as interest rates fall (the latter due to a 'reduced incentive to save') contains within it many flaws. For a start, debt needs to be paid back (or at least people can't sustainably go deeper into debt or be allowed by banks to carry negative equity to their death bed), and more importantly, most people aspire to retire at circa 65 and enjoy 20 years or more of retirement, and are therefore desirous of accumulating retirement savings (as well as enjoying a debt-free retirement), to fund not only living costs, but the likelihood of escalating healthcare costs/needs as they age.

While the traditional model may well work for those in early adulthood, those in the latter half of adulthood are likely to seek to accumulate savings and reduce debt (at least the sort not backed by assets, such as investment property), regardless of the level of interest rates. Indeed, falling rates make it harder to accumulate savings for retirement, by both reducing the benefits of compound interest during the accumulation phase, and reducing the level of investment income generated by a given amount of previously accumulated savings during the distribution phase, requiring a larger nest egg be accumulated in the first place. Low interest rates could therefore just as reasonably be expected to increase savings rather than decrease them.

The model that lower rates decreases the incentive to save (and vice versa) therefore ignores real world realities - people do not live forever, and need to save for retirement and time-shift their consumption, and they need to do this regardless of prevailing interest rates. And demographic considerations - where a long period of falling birth rates result in the median age moving into the late 40s or above - could reasonably be expected to result in a significant increase in the propensity to save and decreased propensity to borrow and spend that is noticeable at the aggregate level.

The degree to which these dynamics are not understood by people that should know a lot better is as astounding as it is disappointing. In the post GFC era, we have heard repeated claims from central banks and policymakers around the world that 'banks are not lending' in response to stagnant or declining consumer debt. It has always been assumed that this is because the banks lack the capacity to lend (inadequate capital or liquidity), or because they are being excessively risk averse (to some extent true after the trauma of the GFC, but not to the extent claimed). The assumption that a lack of supply of funds has been the source of the problem has laid behind a lot of central bank policies designed to boost bank liquidity. However, no thought has been given to the situation where a lack of demand for credit may be the primary issue - consumers may simply have no desire to borrow money and go further into debt, while the rich have already maximised their consumptive desires and have no need or desire to borrow. In other words, contrary to policymaker belief, there is no scarcity of supply of borrowable funds - there is actually a lack of demand.

However, the most significant problem with the scarcity model is how it pertains to business investment. Real capital investment (distinct from secondary portfolio investment, where one investor merely exchanges cash for stock, and the vendor stock for cash, which results in no net cash absorption) does not take place in a vacuum; instead, businesses invest capital only where they see an economic reason to do so - particularly in countries like the US where companies are generally run with a focus on RoE and shareholder value maximisation. In such countries, companies will not borrow money to make additional investments/add capacity - even at very low rates - unless there is a compelling business rationale. If not, they will just use excess FCF to pay dividends/buy back stock. After all, if your existing factories are only operating at 70% utilisation, why one earth would you want to build a new one?

This can easily result in a situation where growth in consumption is weak due to growing inequality, demographic factors and consumers savings for retirement, which leads to a reduced need for further corporate investment, regardless of interest rates or the availability of funding. In other words, access to finance ceases to be the constraining factor; it is not that companies lack access to capital, but rather they do not have a sufficient number of worthwhile capital projects to invest in.

The causes for reduced demand for capital investment - particularly relative to to the growing availability of capital supply - actually runs a lot deeper than just this. Aside from the factors discussed above, the need for new capital investment is generally driven by three factors: (1) population growth; (2) the emergence of new technologies that are capital intensive to roll-out; and (3) the actual roll-out of #2.

Population growth is fairly self-evident. If population is growing either through natural increase or net migration, more of everything is needed. This will drive a certain degree of ongoing investment. It is no coincidence that economies with a lot of net migration (US, Australia, Canada, UK, etc) have performed 'better' than those without (in quotation marks because per capita statistics often tell a very different story), and that Japan has performed the worst, given the viciously and unprecedentedly negative demographics the country is facing. On a per capita basis, Japan has actually grown only slightly more slowly than Western peers over the past 30 years, but because it's population is shrinking, the excess of savings and the weakness in investment demand dynamics has been by far the most pronounced.

More interesting are #2-3, which can be thought of as comprising two axis on a 2D plane that drives investment cycles. In order to have a major capital investment cycle, there first needs to be the emergence of a new technology that is capable of providing a new product or service, or providing an existing product or service more efficiently (and which is also capital intensive to roll out). Secondly, you need to roll that technology out to reach a saturation point of the installed base, which depending on the technology, can often take many decades. This dynamic is best highlighted by way of example.

Let's say the railroad is invented. That's the invention. The next thing you need to do is take maximal advantage of this technology by rolling out railways across the country/world to the point where further penetration of the technology no longer adds any value and so is therefore not required. That requires a tremendous amount of capital investment, in steel production, locomotive production, and construction activity and the like, and it will take a very long time. However, at some point, you will reach a saturation point where you have built enough railways. At that point, the investment demand will revert to sustaining levels, unless a radical new technology capable of improving it arises. At that point, there would be another major investment cycle as obsoleted capital stock is replaced with upgraded capital stock.

Another example is air travel. Global RPKs are still growing at some 5% a year, aided by continuing growth in low-cost carriers and rising incomes in the developing world. This continues to drive the need to produce more planes to meet this demand. This trend will continue for a long time as emerging country consumers become richer. But at some point, no matter how rich you are, you don't want to do any more air travel. The constraining factor for many affluent people is no longer the cost of travel, but how much time they want/need to spend sitting in an uncomfortable seat at 40k feet being capitulated around the world at 900km/h. At some point, no matter what people's incomes, the demand for more investment air travel will stop. At this point, scarcity will cease to function. No more airports, Boeing factories, or net aircraft fleet investment will be required beyond sustaining requirements, unless there are major new innovations. If a new plane was invented, for instance, that was twice as fast and a half the cost (very doubtful this will occur), you would then need to retrofit the entire existing fleet, which would drive another significant investment cycle.

In short, if the pace of technological innovation slows down, there will be less need for major retrofitting capital investments, as saturation levels are reached. Today, we have some investment cycles in new technologies - notably in cloud computing infrastructure and associated implementations, as well as software development across a variety of fronts. Regulatory-driven investments into renewable energy is another source of capital demand/absorption (trying to colonise Mars also seems to be an excellent way to - shall we say - 'absorb a lot of capital'). However, in general, outside the world of software and ICT, the pace of technological development has rapidly decelerated - particularly in more capital-intensive fields - which has coincided with an increasing degree of saturation of developed-market material consumer wants (as oppose to services demand). Most consumers now have enough clothes, food, appliances, cars, and other toys.

Furthermore, technological innovation today is also increasingly making the material world more efficient, and contributing to the consumption of less resources. In the past, more was the order of the day. More cars. More clothes. More food. More stuff. Now, ICT and the rapid development in computing power is helping us to do more with less. The sharing economy improves resources utilisation, and IoT/AI will continue to drive radical enhancements in the efficiency of resource usage across a variety of industries. This is further contributing to savings outstripping investment demand.

Finally, one other thing that has been exacerbating the increase in total capital supply in an environment of declining demand/need for capital is rising life expectancies, which I blogged about here. While the thesis is hard for many people to accept, and encountered some scepticism, all you really have to do is consider how much capital Warren Buffet or Charlie Munger could have accumulated had they passed away aged 65, and compare how much they have actually accumulated at ages 85-95. Capital compounds geometrically, and when you combine increasing inequality with rising life expectancies, you increasingly have the capacity not only for very large fortunes to accumulate, but for the aggregate supply of savings/capital to mushroom alongside that fact (although in the case of Buffett, charitable donations are resulting in the recirculation of some of those funds). Buffett bemoans the lack of worthwhile places to allocate his US$130bn cash hoard, but his geometric accumulation of capital, along with many others, is a core reason why. There is increasingly simply too much capital/savings, and not enough worthwhile places to invest it. Many investors don't like to accept it, but the world does not owe you a high return on capital.

What it all adds up to is that capital scarcity has been declining, as the supply of savings has increased, while the demand for the use of those savings to finance investment and/or borrowing for consumption has fallen. In other words, savings have ceased to be scarce or a constraining factor holding back economic growth. There is no - and never has been - any guaranty savings/capital will always be scarce, and hence able to command a high return, and a lot of the confusion investors are experiencing gives way as soon as that reality is understood. Indeed, none other than Karl Marx once said that in the long run, interest rates would go to zero as the capitalists would run out of things to invest in, and at that point there would be no choice but to redistribute the capital. To some extent, he is right and that is what is happening and - irrespective of intermediate cycles and whether we have or have not already reached that point - will probably inevitably occur in the very long term, as the global population peaks, and we reach a technological plateau (although we are still a long way away from that point globally).

Some people believe in exponential technological progress. I'm more in the S-curve camp. This is because while the level of accumulated human knowledge and data continues to increase rapidly, the human capacity to absorb, assimilate and integrate that information - at the individual level - is finite and time constrained. The more we discover, the harder and longer it takes for people to discover meaningfully new insights. People cannot spend the first 60 years of there life learning all the prerequisites they need to make new discoveries. They need to make a living. We have already reached the point of radical specialisation, which introduces its own set of problems, as increasingly 'range', or combinatorial insights from multiple domains, is required for breakthroughs. Furthermore, 'science' can only take as so far, as we remain constrained by the laws of physics/nature. To the extent I am right about this, it seems inevitable that the long term sustainable rate of interest will trend towards zero in the long term (or even be negative, if savings remain in structural excess), although as I note below, there is ample capacity for volatility on the way through.


Making sense of what is happening

With the above context in mind, we can finally begin to find ready explanations for a lot of the phenomena that has confounded investors over the past decade which I referenced in my first three paragraphs. The above analysis makes reference to an excess of savings, but technically this claim is inaccurate, in the sense that - international imbalances aside - in the aggregate, net savings must equal investment (with net savings a composite of gross savings by some economic participants, less net borrowing by other economic participants, including most notably, governments). In other words, any gross savings in excess of investment demand must be dissipated by governments and/or consumers dissaving. Whether the propensity to save is tending to exceed the propensity to invest/borrow can only be inferred from the direction of interest rates, but the tendency of interest rates to continue to decline as debt levels rise, is strong evidence that excess savings is the push/causal factor; rising debt levels the outcome.

Because consumers have generally been reducing their debt burdens in the post-GFC years, and corporates have not needed to borrow to finance investment, it has generally fallen on the government to do the borrowing. In the absence of this 'borrower of last resort', the economy would enter a downward spiral leading eventually to depression. The latter would ultimately achieve the same thing - balancing net savings and investment - but through a much more painful route: crushing savings by hammering corporate profitability - a key source of savings - and mass unemployment, which thwarts consumers' ability to save, while forcing the government into deficit anyway by having their tax income crater. This is precisely what happened during the Great Depression.

Knowing this, it is easy to see why government bond rates have fallen even as government debt levels have risen. The answer is that most observers have misunderstood the direction of causality. The government is being forced into borrowing to absorb excess private sector net savings - just as it has had to do in Japan since the 1990s. This is why investors such as Kyle Bass, who don't understand this stuff, have been calling in vain for a government debt crisis in Japan for years and years to no avail. The push factor has been too much net savings - which has pushed down interest rates - and the 'pull' factor government borrowing to absorb those excess savings. Furthermore, even in the pre-GFC years, the prime mover of the debt/housing bubble was not consumers' desire to borrow, but instead the push factor of excessive global savings, which created huge demand for yield assets that had the effect of pushing down rates and promoting the relaxation of credit standards that induced people to borrow. The speculative appetite to borrow and buy houses only came later once the boom was well established.

In addition, QE does not have the same effect has 'helicopter money', but instead actually has the counterproductive effect of making the existing savings glut imbalance even worse (which highlights how extraordinarily ignorant central bankers are to the dynamics outlined above - they have completely misdiagnosed the problem). Helicopter money would be received by the average consumer and spent. It would stimulate aggregate demand, and would eventually be inflationary. However, QE doesn't operate this way; the CB instead purchases bonds off wealthy individuals, corporations, investment funds, and banks. The prior owners of these assets were either wealthy individuals who are already consuming at their maximum desired level, or the middle class (via investment funds) who are saving for retirement. These funds were therefore already in the 'investment' bucket, and therefore destined for reinvestment into other alternative financial assets, rather than reallocated to consumption, and the 'trickle down' effect has only been modest.

What happens with QE is that these entities wind up with a whole lot of newly minted cash instead of bonds. What they do with that cash is not spend it, but look for alternative investments. That has the effect of pushing down interest rates and driving up asset prices, and percentage cash allocations fall via the mechanism of the price of other assets going up, rather than absolute cash holdings going down (because when this cash is used to buy stocks or other assets off other investors, the cash simply moves to the vendor's account, in something of a pass the parcel as investors try to trade out cash for something more appetising), and ultimately the cash just ends up being held as excess reserves by banks, held on behalf of their customers. This is why QE has not been inflationary. In order to be inflationary, the funds would either have to be consumed, or used to fund real capital investment, but the latter will only happen if real capital investment is capital constrained, which is is not.

Access to capital had already ceased to be a constraining factor for economic growth, and that is why we have not seen more investment and inflation. Instead, US corporates have continued to return more and more capital to shareholders via buybacks - the exact opposite. US corporates literally have access to far more capital than they know what to do with. Most of the borrowing that has occurred and has been stimulated has gone to finance of M&A (notably via private equity), rather than finance new capital stock, which is the 'worst' type of increase in debt. The amplifying effect of QE on the excess supply of capital has, however, likely contributed meaningfully to the VC unicorn tech bubble, which has been a short term economic stimulus, but one with dubious long term durability.

Meanwhile, negative bond rates are also much easier to fathom when you understand the impact of QE in combination with negative short term policy rates, which we have seen in Europe. For reasons we have discussed, QE simply results in investors holding more cash, which results in banks ending up with excess reserves, as the said investors have to park the cash somewhere. When short rates are (for e.g.) -0.5%, banks have to pay the central bank 0.5% a year to hold the funds for them, which means they will look for any and all ways to 'get rid of the cash', in a sort of pass the parcel with other banks. If you have to pay -0.5% on excess deposits, and are desperately trying to get rid of cash, buying bonds at a -0.2% yield seems like a much less bad idea than it otherwise would.

Low but still positive long rates of say 0.2% also make a tonne of sense when you realise banks have a zero risk-weight on government bond holdings, and can fund those purchases at -0.5%, or at worst, 0.0%. They are doing that, however, because there is no consumer or business demand for credit capable of absorbing their excess cash reserves. They have no where else to put the money. Yet authorities continue to say, gee banks aren't lending - it must be because they don't have enough liquidity - so let's do more QE so banks have more funds they can lend. The end result is to massively exacerbate the excess of liquid savings looking for any sort of home possible.

This is how you end up with the environment we have seen: relatively weak growth in investment and consumptive demand; falling consumer debt; rising fiscal deficits and government debt burdens; falling interest rates; and rising asset prices. It's also how you end up with a breakdown in the historical inverse correlation in the performance between bonds and stocks - they are both going up as capital has ceased to be scarce and a precipitously falling cost of capital is driving up the price of everything. And the truth is, as high as asset prices have gone so far, it is not inconceivable that we could end up with the biggest asset bubble of all time the way things are going - eclipsing even the dot.com bubble (as I argued here). It seems to be a logical outcome should the current trajectory continue, as rates go to zero or below, and the huge excess of liquid savings desperately seeks out any and all sources of cash flow return, driving asset prices to the stratosphere.

This explains also why market have done so well, despite sluggish growth, and this being one of the most hated bull markets of all time. General expectations have been for an imminent economic fallout and major bear market for a decade now, as the unintended consequences of experimental monetary policy comes home to roost, and yet it hasn't happened. Many investors have suffered badly betting on disaster while stocks have risen and risen, and then risen some more. There is no euphoria (outside of certain spots in tech) - markets have gone up not because people are wildly bullish, but because investors have increasingly been dragged - kicking and screaming - into stocks as there has been no where else to obtain a reasonable return, as bond yields have plumbed new lows.


The end of history? How politics might alter the trajectory

Over the past decade, investors have failed to grasp the above dynamics, and in general have been awaiting an inevitable 'normalisation' of interest rates. Had they grasped the above, they would have realised that low rates were not merely reflecting central bank behaviour, but more structural forces, and were likely to have gone to zero regardless of central bank policies (although probably not negative). And the proof is in the pudding - rates that are 'too low' are supposed to lead to inflation, and they haven't, and if we don't have inflation, then it is hard to argue that rates are 'too low' (QE is a different question). Too low on what metric? Certainly not too low such that it has resulted in excessive demand for capital relative to its supply - that would have been inflationary (although, without doubt, QE has been a bad policy and has created more problems than it has solved).

Furthermore, investors would have been a lot more reluctant to hold a lot of cash; short stocks and bet on a crash; and short government bonds on called for a government debt crises, had they understood these dynamics. With the fundamental driver being a structural excess of savings, made worse by central bank policies, the likelihood of an equity and asset price bubble of unprecedented proportions, coupled with zero/negative interest rates, was far from impossible, while the likelihood of a spike in government bond rates and widespread government defaults was exceedingly remote.

However, one thing I have noted recently is that after a decade of being wrong, many investors are now finally coming around to the view that rates are going to be low forever right when some of the conditions that have underpinned the status quo are - for the first time in a decade - at risk of changing course. As usual, investors are behind the curve. Declaring that rates are set to remain forever low at this point (as opposed to it being merely possible/probable) seems to me to somewhat akin to Fukuyama's famously inaccurate call in the early 1990s that we had reached the 'end of history'.

While I do think the general trajectory of rates will be towards zero in the long run, much as has been the case in Japan to date, I think there is nevertheless a risk of intermediate periods of turmoil where rates do go meaningfully higher, driven by an escalation in inflation. However, the mechanism by which this might occur, and hence the source of the risk, seems poorly understood to investors, because it derives from the political rather than economic sphere, and will require a change in course.

It seems to me that a clue as to the potential fundamental chink in the armour of the 'low forever' thesis lies in something I referenced relatively early in the article: the fact that the vast majority of consumers are in fact still subject to scarcity and are under-consuming relative to the level at which they would prefer to, coupled with rising political trends towards populism. They may not want or be able to borrow more, but they would sure prefer to consume more, given the opportunity - particularly experiences (travel) and various other labour-intensive services.

Capitalism is great for driving innovation and efficient resource utilisation, but it has an important Achilles heel, which is that it tends towards increasingly extreme wealth inequality over time - a tendency which is only being exacerbated at present by trends in technology. Taken to a large enough extreme, wealth inequality will eventually crash the entire system, much as it did in 1929. Imagine, for instance, that Warren Buffet came to control close to 100% of national income and wealth (I always like to use an extreme example to highlight an immutable principle that continues to apply when scaled down to a more realistic level). Aggregate consumptive demand would collapse to virtually zero, and you'd have an unimaginably bad depression.

Capitalism is great for the supply-side of the economy, but a sustainably healthy demand-side requires that the level of income and wealth inequality not be allowed to become too extreme, lest consumers cannot afford to purchase goods supplied by the owners of capital. The supply-side determines the capacity of an economy to produce goods and services, but the demand-side determines the actual level of goods and services demanded and produced (up to the economy's capacity limit, demand creates supply in the economy, not the other way around, as the Austrian school of economists falsely believes). If those with all the money don't want to consume, and those that want to consume don't have the money, the economy will collapse. This fundamental limitation of free market capitalism is poorly understood by a lot of economic conservatives.

When wealth inequality reaches extreme levels, there are only three ways the imbalance can be resolved. The first is a 1929-32 type depression (wealth inequality last peaked in 1929) which wipes out all the banks and most companies and hits a giant reset button. The second is a swing to left wing economic policies (as opposed to centre left) that leads to a combination of income/wealth redistribution, improved bargaining power for labour, and eventually inflation; and the third - somewhat counter intuitively for many I'm sure - is a long period of negative interest rates. Any of these outcomes are theoretically possible. Without regulatory intervention, 2008 could easily have morphed into a #1 reset, but the actions of the authorities decisively ruled that option out. Instead, we have so far gone down the road of #3.

It is common to hear people argue that low/negative rates are exacerbating wealth inequality, but that is not in fact true. In the short term and on paper it may initially appear that way, as low rates induce asset prices to rise, but these rising asset prices reflect a fall in the prospective returns on capital, which in the long run is a negative for capital accumulation/compounding, and a negative real return on capital in the bond market actually acts as a de facto wealth tax, which is a form of redistribution (as wealth and income is transferred from wealthy bondholders to governments, who spend and redistribute money to the middle and lower income classes). If rates stay negative for a long time, a very substantial amount of wealth will be redistributed over time in this manner. In this respect, contrary to common perception, negative interest rates are actually part of the solution, rather than part of the problem.

However, while #1 seems very unlikely, and #3 appears the most likely to me, #2 is also possible, and the risks in that regard have risen meaningfully in the last few years, right when most investors are finally capitulating to the conclusion that rates are destined to remain low forever. We are already starting to witness a rise in populism, and although this has superficially been associated with 'right wing' populism, in actuality - as I discussed here - this mislabelling actually reflects an incipient inversion in the traditional left-right political spectrum.

In the past, the left was the party of the working classes/labour, and the right the party of business. However, in modern times, the left has been captured by the liberal, rich elite, and has let its focus drift to identity/minority issues, and the priorities of rich liberals including climate change, while abandoning its traditional mainstream working class voter base, which traditionally economically conservative parties have started to swoop in and capture. Trade barriers, and policies to restrict immigration to improve the bargaining power of labour, for instance, have traditionally been left wing policies, as they are good for labour and bad for capital/business. Ultimately, however, the label doesn't matter - it's the actual set of policies and their effects which are important.

However, while populism has only taken a mildly left turn to date (economically), there are no assurances it will stop there, and we could quite easily see a move much further to the left in coming years. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, for instance - two leading Democratic contenders - have campaigned for radically higher taxes on the rich, including wealth taxes as high as 8% on billionaires, in the case of Sanders (Warren advocates for 3%). Jeremy Corbyn's UK's policy prescriptions were also more left wing than any prescription we have seen in the Anglo-sphere in quite some time. While none of these candidates have a critical mass of support yet, with populism on the rise the future trajectory of policy remains highly unpredictable.

Stepping back from the contemporary political fray, it seems to me the bigger picture, long term causal meta could well be this: right wing policies are good for supply but - in the long run - bad for demand (due to rising inequality), while left wing policies are bad for supply but - in the short run - good for demand. When you've had too much left wing policies, as was the case in the 1970s, you end up with a stagnant economy and high inflation. This gives rise to a desire for change amongst the electorate, which takes expression in ballot box outcomes. In the case of the late 1970s/early 1980s, discontent with the status quo resulted in the election of Thatcher and Reagan for this reason.

Initially, when policy swings to the right, it is good for growth; the rich get richer, sure, but the poor and middle classes also get richer. That is because in a stagnant economy with high inflation, underinvestment happens, and a lower cost of capital and more investment is desperately needed. There is too much demand and not enough supply. However, with right wing economic policies, after a long enough time, supply catches up and overtakes demand, at which point you start to see downward pressure on interest rates as the supply of compounding, reinvestable savings starts to outpace capital investment needs. Falling rates result in rising house prices and ultimately induce the middle class to go on a borrowing binge, and this continues - perhaps for 2-3 decades or more - until the middle class cannot afford to take on more debt (or no longer wish to do so). That point was reached in 2008 in the US/Europe, and is at/approaching that point in Australia at present.

After this point, a continuation of right wing economic policies results in the rich continuing to get richer, but now the poor and middle classes start to stagnate and get poorer. This happens as the deleterious effects of rising income inequality more than offset ongoing (slower) growth. This results in an inevitable rise in political tensions, as growing grass roots discontent leads to increasing desire for change. It also explains why today's elite is so unable to comprehend what is happening and why populism is rising - from their perspective things are great - never better. Their incomes and wealth continue to mushroom. But large parts of the population are getting left behind. It also explains why 'outsider' candidates such as Trump have found such appeal, as traditional candidates are all part of the elite - the rich who have been getting richer - and therefore have ceased to understand and represent a growing proportion of the electorate, or cater to their growing sense of malaise.

If my model is right (and it is admittedly still speculative and unproven at this point), it seems to me the next step in this long cycle would logically be for a swing back to the left, and in my view it has already started, as trade and immigration tensions have risen (which are policies designed to improve the bargaining power of domestic labour). As noted, an initial swing to the left is bad for supply but good for demand - particularly coming from a point of significant inequality - and in the initial stages of a swing left, the rich get poorer but the poor and middle class get richer, as wealth and income is redistributed from the rich to the poor. Furthermore, coming from a position of already sufficient/excess supply, a decline in trend-rate growth in supply does not manifest as an issue for some time, because there is already an output gap to exploit. However, if the swing to the left last long enough and goes far enough, you eventually get to the point where demand overtakes supply, and you end up with inflation, rising rates, and eventually stagflation. At this point, the rich get poorer, and the poor and middle class get poorer too. At this point, the populist impulse becomes to swing back to the right, and the process starts all over again.

We see these kinds of oscillations between left-wing and right-wing populism in South America all the time, where the cycles are much shorter. In the West, we have had a long 30-40 year swing to the right (economically), which is longer than the investment careers of most investors alive today, so people are ill-prepared for the consequences of any major systemically-important political shift, and are unlikely to envisage the potential consequences. Indeed, as Jacob Mitchell of Antipodes said recently in an interview, a whole generation of investors has been taught to 'ignore politics', but he noted that that perspective might increasingly be the wrong position to take in the future. I completely agree with him in principle (although how that its actioned, I'm not so sure). What also remains to be seen is whether the various structural factors tending towards lower rates, including the effect of technology, outweigh the economic effects of changing political policies. On that I do not know.

The mechanism that more left wing policies that are stimulatory to demand (and ultimately inflation) will likely take will probably be a combination of significantly higher fiscal spending, as well as a more aggressive push for higher taxes on the rich - particularly in the form of wealth taxes, which have been relatively rare tax to date. There is a very substantial and growing opportunity for politicians to campaign to the middle classes about the injustice of the current system and the need for radical redistribution, and surveys indicate that Millennials are a lot more pro socialism and anti capitalism than prior generations, and also own relatively little capital (and generally can't afford houses). People that don't own any capital are usually less supportive of capitalism than those that do.

In the US, free universal healthcare and free university education will probably be the initial volleys, including also potentially UBI. It is quite possible it does not stop there, however, until meaningfully negative economic outcomes manifest (which will likely take a while), as the dynamics of politics is such that one always needs to promise more/something different from the incumbent to get elected; the tendency towards entitlement-inflation therefore well entrenched for this reason.

One of the reasons productivity growth has slowed down in recent decades is that a larger and larger portion of the economy is being subsumed by less and less productive sectors, such as education and healthcare, where costs continue to mushroom. There is still rapid innovation and productivity growth happening in software and ICT, and to a lesser extent manufacturing, but the portion of the economy this encapsulates has become smaller. If the government continues to expand significantly in size; government deficits rise high enough; and wealth and other income taxes on the rich increase sufficiently, it is entirely conceivable we could end up in a world where a scarcity of capital returns, and inflation increases - as unlikely as that may now seem/feel (including to me). This is particularly the case as baby boomer's are now starting to retire, and so are starting to pass their point of peak savings activity in the lead up to their retirement years, while the fiscal burden of state-guaranteed pensions will also continue to escalate in coming years as well.

What ultimately ends up happening is anyone's guess. Predicting the long term outlook for interest rates is particularly difficult, as one scenario is redistribution via negative interest rates for an extended period of time, while the other is via inflation and radically higher rates - both opposite ends of the continuum! The former could also be expected - initially at least - to potentially lead to one of the biggest equity bubbles of all time (if not the biggest), while the latter could lead to asset price carnage even worse than the early 1970s.

I feel very fortunate that my investment approach does not rely on predicting macro outcomes such as these, or variables such as interest rates. I plan to keep doing what I always do - find stocks trading at low prices relative to their likely future distributable cash flow. A margin of safety, and low prices/rapid cash flow payback is always the best hedge against an uncertain future.


LT3000



145 comments:

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  2. This is deep, I suspect I will revisit this post. Thank you

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  3. Wow - what a post! More meat there than there is on Meat Loaf.

    A lot for a simple engineer that never studied economics to absorb. One thing that came to my mind was wrt your observation about Captalism's Achille's heel - the tendency to wealth inequality (leading to low demand, in large part due to constraining household income). I find it interesting that it is in China that we have the lowest share of household income to GDP. The irony is that this has occurred in what is ostensibly a hard left (communist) system. As such, this state of affairs has not been driven by capitalism, but rather by government policy.

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    1. Thanks Mars,

      I think the dynamics of inequality for developing countries is somewhat different, as in these countries, there is a relatively low installed base of capital (albeit in the specific case of China, the gap is being rapidly bridged), consequently there are ample opportunities to use the extra savings generated by rising inequality to fund productivity-enhancing capital investments. China has demonstrated this by using considerable domestic savings to fund aggressive investment.

      China is not a communist system; it is communist in name only. It's state-directed/managed capitalism - a hybrid that does not easily sit on the typical communist-capitalist continuum.

      Cheers,
      LT

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    2. Agreed on all counts. But it's an interesting talking point.

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  4. I said on that other platform that all economists should read this post. In truth, all capitalists should read it too (as an aside, I think economist Michael Pettis has been on board for a long time, on most of the above, if not all). It seems that capitalists are unable (and very likely unwilling - human nature being what it is) to see investment and consumption coexisting in a symbiotic relationship. The issue gets wrapped up in all sorts of self righteous notions about thrift, frugality, prudence etc, versus it's opposites. The general notion is that investment (savings) are good, and spending (consumption) is bad. Of course, as with all ideologies, there is a good kernel of truth here - just not the whole truth.

    Capitalists, in the main, seem unable to accept that both are an essential part of the whole, and that to enlarge one you may need to enlarge the other, it may not always be the 'virtuous' one that needs enlarging.

    One would think that purely from a self-interest stand-point that they would come around. Even towering intellects such Buffet & Munger seem to view this through an ideological lens (Buffett less so). Remarkable considering that reason and the avoidance of dogma has been something they have championed their whole lives.

    On the subject of the 'end game', or how to restore the balance, I'm wondering if apart from the stated 3 options, that there might be another route. Is it possible that as returns on capital head ever lower (after all ROE's must eventually be tied to prevailing interest rates), that it will eventually be more attractive to be an employee than to be an owner of capital. To this point this may not have been a substantial factor, as employees have not been sufficiently scarce (unemployment has been fairly high).

    Until machine can do everything, humans will have to provide services to those savers (owners of capital). Ultimately, the appeal to labour would have to be a factor - would it not? This would, in principle, redress the labour-share-of-GDP, reduce savings and restore interest rates?

    Employees might become pampered pooches - but through the assistance of automation, that's all they may have to be.

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    Replies
    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  5. Thank you for your excellent article. It is thought provoking.

    I am not sure if your #3 way to solve inequality, i.e. negative interest rate can actually solve the problem. If we look at the US as an example, S&P 500 is trading on roughly 16x PE, so 6.3% earnings yield. If profit margin remains at the current level, capital is still compounding a lot faster than labour can. Using your logic, inflation can solve the problem but there is no inflation if labour is not being valued more. Profit margin needs to come down a lot to solve the problem. If profit margin is down too much, companies go under.

    In my mental framework, savings/investments/money are all a claim to the society's resources (which ultimately is relative labour hourly output). Inequality means a small minority of people can command most people's labour because they had a track record of more efficient in allocating/coordinating these labour. I don't think government is an efficient mean to do this job, so using the government as the agent for redistribution is not optimal. To reduce/break inequality, we need the rule of allocation to be changed, i.e. those minority needs to lose their command (so wealth destruction). During the transition, resources will not be allocated optimally, so we will have corporate profit decline, companies going busted and unemployment increases, basically the depression. It sounds tough but it is the necessary evil.

    Your solution #3 is whether this process can be achieved over a long time so the pain is not as much. I think it is possible if and only if none of the participants in this reorganisation have overly concentrated bargaining position.

    If we look internationally, there is a large inequality within the tradable economies. A US person has much more wealth (or command in global resources) vs. someone in India or China. If the US/Europe suddenly wants to restructure the global wealth system through negative yield, the creditor countries (say China, as an example) will not want to lose its capital deposited in the US (which is a form of claim on future US production) as well as remain as the cheap provider of labour. Once a country realises a reorganisation is happening, they won't let that slippery slope to continue gradually (i.e. small negative capital compounding), but to intervene to secure their interest. In the prior centuries such actions including war and seizure of land and natural resources. I am not sure what could happen in the future, but it won't be a smooth process.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks for your thoughtful comment.

      On your first para, the compounding is in fact declining, because (1) although US RoEs remain high, the level of reinvested cash flows is declining (more capital returns - buybacks etc); (2) valuations are rising so the rate of reinvested return is falling. This has happened most obviously in the bond market (which is huge), and in property as cap rates fall, but is also happening in the stock market.

      I agree that an 6.3% earnings yield is still relatively high though in the context of a capital surplus. That is why on current trends there is a decent chance prices go much higher from here, unless there is a swing to redistributive policies as discussed.

      No argument with you that the government is not an efficient allocator of resources. But when you get into a severe liquidity trap, it's actually a choice between no demand and government intermediated demand. The latter at least creates demand which creates supply (which means jobs and productive output that would otherwise not exist).

      This was Keynes' insight in the great depression. Fiscal conservatives banged on about how the government allocates resources less efficiently than the private sector, which is generally true, but when you have (1) 25% of the population out of work and desperate for work; and (2) many useful things that could be produced with the labour (infrastructure, and more goods and services for consumption, which people desperately needed), clearly the lasse faire system is not working and government intervention to stimulate demand is value additive.

      Cheers,
      LT

      Delete
    2. Thanks LT for your reply.

      On your first paragraph, an increasing valuation (so lower yield) doesn't solve the relative distribution of wealth. If the current system is preserved, the capital return/buyback do not go to the working class, but back to the capitalists which goes back to the system. (this is like how the Fed balance sheet props up asset prices) So unless wages increases (i.e. profit margins decline), there is no redistribution of wealth. In fact, the higher the asset prices are, the worse is the inequality which we have observed in the past ten years.

      I haven't read as much about the depression as you. But I do remember Jim Grant's mentioned the recession prior to the Fed's establishment was under pure lasse faire which incidentally ended much quicker and shallower. There is a theory that the Fed created the bubble prior to the depression, without the Fed's intervention, there won't be that bubble and depression.

      Back to government redistribution of wealth topic. In a depression like that, a lot of paper capital is destroyed and resources (labour and capital) becomes free (as in freedom). In this chao wealth is redistributed instantly. Total "wealth" is lower but relatively people are more equal. If the government does not step in, there will likely be social unrest (e.g. revolutions in France or Nazi in power in Germany). So the government's spending is more about buying time for the free market to do its job properly - efficient resource re-allocation.

      If my idea is correct, then without this prior redistribution of wealth (i.e. recession/depression), increased government spending and Fed intervention just further distorts resource allocation and wealth inequality, that’s why it hasn't worked so far.

      Cheers.

      Delete
  6. Great article Lyall, I will be rereading this many times, it made me think off your previous article on tax cuts, it is rather consistant by governments that alot more if not all emphasis is placed on the supply side and demand is ignored.
    Good luck with 2020 (I like Howard Marks definition off luck being "when preparation meets opportunity").
    Regards
    Anthony

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks Anthony. The points discussed here do indeed have a lot in common with the tax cuts article. As we already have an excess of savings, corporate tax cuts to increase the availability of savings for corporates to use to fund investment could be predicted to have no effect on investment, and that's what we've seen - they've all gone into buybacks.

      A slightly separate issue is the impact on competitiveness and where companies choose to base their production facilities, though. High taxes can encourage companies to domicle offshore. From that perspective tax cuts may help re-domicle investment onshore.

      Cheers,
      LT

      Delete
  7. Thanks a lot for this article, which has me thinking:
    Would the statement of capital scarcity declining be still correct taking a global perspective, including all developing markets with their growing population and the massive need for infrastructure build and strong hunger for more consumption? Wouldn't there still be more capital demand than supply to serve the needs?
    And if yes, how could a potential 4th alternative look like when taking such a global perspective?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks Klaus,

      The answer is yes - there is still a capital deficit in many places in the world - most obviously in Africa - but there are some complexities in putting the capital to work.

      One of the issues is that you can still only utilise 100% of your potential GDP. Go above that and you end up with inflation. So the pace of investment is constrained to perhaps 30-40% of GDP (or 45% in the case of China), regardless of how much theoretical savings exist in DM.

      The other issue is that in China and many other Asian countries, the run-rate investment needs are being met by the run-rate pace of domestic savings. The preference for self-funded investment arose due to the Asian Financial Crisis - reliance on fickle foreign capital flows has proven too destabilising in the past. In theory developing countries should borrow as much as they can from the excess savings pools in DM to fund catch up investment, but in practice this leads to bouts of inflation, currency depreciation, risk aversion, capital flight, and defaults & crises.

      So in theory yes, but in practice it is a bit harder. However, we did see in 2000-10 a huge boom in EM, which was driven by a combination of the commodity boom, which boosted export Fx earnings, and a massive wave of yield-seeking capital gushing out from DM as the Fed cut rates to zero. This lowered the cost of capital in EM and drove an investment boom, exactly in accordance with what you're suggesting above could/should happen.

      So to some extent it is happening. The problem though, as noted, is that you can't boost domestic investment above domestic output capacity. As those limits were reached in 2010-12, EM inflation picked up and growth slowed. Falling commodity prices and a rising USD also stressed external accounts and Fx debt servicability.

      I do think places like Africa will meaningfully surprise on the upside over the next few decades, however, as very high costs of capital which are holding back growth ease as yield-seeking funds eventually find there way there.

      Cheers,
      LT

      Delete
  8. Interesting take that I've never really considered so far.

    My own shallow view at this point is mostly the opposite, in that I would resurrect Say's Law to say that a sustained general glut will not ordinarily exist over a long period of time, unless government intervention prevents the market from self-correcting.

    The key observation I'd point to is the recent spike in the US repo rate, which went up to 10% at one point until the Fed stepped in to inject liquidity into the market. This event suggests that the market interest rate is actually much higher than observed, and that the low interest rates are brought about by intervention instead of being the ordinary state of affairs.

    Growth is slow because the artificially low interest rates result in a misallocation of resources, causing unproductive firms to stay in business, which then deploys labour and capital in an inefficient manner. The reduction in productivity in turn prevents inflation from further increasing because wages cannot increase.

    Had the Fed not intervened to force interest rates down, the higher interest rates would lead to a brief contraction as unproductive firms are shut down and workers are laid off, but the economy will eventually recover when the freed up labour and capital is redeployed.

    Aside from that, another issue to consider is whether deflation really is such a bad thing. Central banks around the world are lowering interest rates with the aim of avoiding deflation, but what we're observing is actually cost-push deflation instead of demand-pull deflation (or should I call it cost-pull and demand-push deflation), which in my view isn't necessarily a bad thing. Given that economists have had to reconsider a number of established paradigms in recent years, perhaps it's time to reconsider the paradigm that deflation is always bad.

    Finally, as a point of clarification, I wonder how your views in this post square with one of your previous posts that points to the current account deficit in developed countries as one of the contributing factors behind low inflation and negative interest rates in those countries.

    My take, based on the argument I've written above, is that China has been artificially devaluing its currency, which requires it to reduce interest rates below the market level. The rise of China in recent years has meant that China's interest rates have flow-on effects on other central banks, which are forced to lower their rates too in order to prevent their currencies from appreciating too much against the RMB, resulting in a downward spiral of global interest rates.

    Just a few random thoughts from my end.

    ReplyDelete
  9. What an excellent post. I need to read it over a few times. Kudos !!

    ReplyDelete
  10. I think Hulsmann's book is worth a read. One may not agree with it but it does make you think harder about what we call excess savings... are they really excess savings or a result of central bank policy to reinflate using fractional reserve banking system where those 'savings' are not 'saving' in the real sense of foregone consumption etc. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8zYg4E4zbPo or read the short book /PDF https://mises.org/library/ethics-money-production

    Ignoring the central bank's role in distorting the price of money has led to exactly the sort of policies Richard Koo proposes (use the low interest rate as a signal to governments to borrow and 'invest' if it yields a net positive expected return (not hard if one fifth of government bonds have negative yields). But, Japan have been doing this hard for decades, to which Koo will say 'not hard enough!'. Hmmm.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Very insightful analysis, thank you!
    We have this very long term decreasing trend interest rates, which favors elites, and makes income producing assets scarcer and scarcer. There may be another cyclical process which operates on top of that, a process which ebbs and floats between elite power and power of the masses. Peter Turchin has analysed these waves through history and traced them until today. He calls this new field of empirical historical science cliodynamics. Highly recommended!

    ReplyDelete
  12. Hi Lyall,

    Everybody is kissing your ass about this post because they want more stock tips- me included.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Lyell, this is a pin-to-the-wall type of piece! You mention at the end that you're happy as your strategy does not need macro calls and that you buy stocks with low prices to future FCF. Surely that FCF needs to be discounted. Given the wide range you give for future interest rates and the compelling reasons for them, I'm curious what interest rate you use. Thanks again for the great article.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks Malcolm,

      I would say that the issue is, no matter what the future discount rate, you'll always be better off buying assets with a higher cash-flow IRR payback than a lower payback. For sure, if interest rates rise, that will lower valuations, but it will still hurt assets trading at higher prices more than it will hurt assets trading at lower prices. In this respect, value investing is an all-seasons strategy, IMO.

      LT3000

      Delete
  14. Hi, Very interesting article.
    I would like to add:
    Some things are only possible if there is enough demand.
    A good example is video games - if people couldn't afford a gaming console and a few 50$ games a year, then no one would have video games - even the rich. The market has to be big to justify it.
    And this market had a lot of after effect in better graphics, sound, more compute power, AI - for a lot of other things.

    What we don't have today because people just can't afford it?
    maybe VR (very expensive right now for a good experience).

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. A recent report that 93 per cent of invasive cervical cancers worldwide contain human papillomavirus (HPV) may be an underestimate, due to sample usabio inadequacy or integration events affecting the HPV L1 gene, which is the target of the polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based test which was used. The formerly HPV-negative cases from this study have therefore been reanalyzed for usabio HPV serum antibodies and HPV DNA. Serology for HPV 16 VLPs, E6, and E7 antibodies was performed on 49 of the 66 cases which were HPV-negative and a sample of 48 of the 866 cases which were HPV-positive in the original study. Moreover, 55 of the 66 formerly HPV-negative biopsies were also reanalyzed by a sandwich procedure in which the outer sections in a series of sections are used for histological review, while the inner sections are assayed by three different HPV PCR assays targeting different open reading frames (ORFs). No significant difference usabio was found in serology for HPV 16 proteins between the cases that were usabio originally HPV PCR-negative and -positive. Type-specific E7 PCR for 14 high-risk HPV types detected HPV DNA in 38 (69 per cent) of the 55 originally HPV-negative and amplifiable specimens. The HPV types detected were 16, 18, 31, 33, 39, 45, 52, and 58. Two (4 per cent) additional cases were only HPV DNA-positive by E1 and/or L1 consensus PCR. Histological analysis of the 55 specimens revealed that 21 were qualitatively inadequate. Only two of the 34 adequate samples were HPV-negative on all PCR tests, as against 13 of the 21 that usabio were usabio inadequate ( p< 0.001). Combining the data from this and the previous study and excluding inadequate specimens, the worldwide HPV prevalence in cervical carcinomas is 99.7 per cent. The presence of HPV in virtually all cervical usabio cancers implies the highest worldwide attributable fraction so far reported for a specific cause of any major human cancer. The extreme rarity of HPV-negative cancers reinforces the rationale for HPV testing in addition to, or even instead of, cervical cytology in routine cervical screening.








      Delete
  15. LT3000 The left/right narrative is false, the elites use it to keep us at each others throats while they steal us blind- been going on since the end of WWII.

    The "left" is not the answer to anything and we (the US) are not swinging in that direction.

    ReplyDelete
  16. I think it will swing to the far left. The rich and middle class will want somewhere to hide and that is gold/bitcoin.

    ReplyDelete
  17. This interacts interestingly with Piketty's r>g - if the rich have maxed-out on their propensity to consume, in the conditions you describe, it's going to be difficult to find enough demand for there to be much g, or indeed many really exciting investment opportunities, so they're going to pile up cash. In fact a mechanism like the one you describe might be an important driver of r>g.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks Alex. I read Piketty's book but I think he has made some huge and fundamental mistakes.

      He assumes r is fixed/stagnant, but he is wrong in my view. If there is an excess supply of capital, r will fall, and that is exactly what we are seeing. Interest rates and bond yields have fallen, real estate rental yields have fallen, and stock valuations have also risen.

      In the past several decades, yes we have had r > g. But the result of that is that r goes down. That's essentially the thesis of my article in a nutshell.

      Delete
  18. Thanks for the great post Lyall, it was truly eye-opening!

    I came across your blog a few months ago recommended by Swen Lorenz, read every post you wrote and have accumulated a few questions. Though at this point, I wanted to ask only one: what would your suggestion be to someone (23 years old, working within financial services in London though not asset-management) who has been investing on the side for a few years to increase his knowledge both from a macro view as in this post, as well as when it comes to detailed equity analysis? I have some basic literacy in analysing companies, but when I look through company presentations, I struggle to develop a view within a fairly short amount of time.

    Would you think that pursuing a CFA would be helpful, or do you have other ideas? Also, from a macroeconomic perspective, do you have suggestions on how to develop my knowledge there as well (I read various finance and economics-focused news, but I’m looking for something that ties everything together)?

    Really enjoy your posts and respect your views on a variety of issues (though I don’t always agree with them fully). Thank you for sharing and am looking forward to your response and next post!

    Christian

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks for your comment Christian,

      To answer your questions, there are no shortcuts to developing deep expertise in marco and company analysis, and the right strategy is probably to simply do more of what you are currently doing, for a longer period of time. It's really a matter of focus and curiosity & a desire to learn, sustained over a long period of time.

      At your age, basically what I would suggest you do is find the best investment thinkers you can, and listen to and read everything they say and write, and keep doing so until you stop learning. This extends to both writing on general big picture philosophy, as well as individual stock or industry analysis.

      I read every single one of Buffett's shareholder letters three times by the time I graduated university. I keep going back and rereading them until I got to the point where I felt I was fully saturated. With really good thinkers like Buffett, as your own thinking develops and matures, you will get more out of their insights when you come back and read them a second, third, or forth time in future years, than the first time you read them, because you will have changed.

      These days, I seek out experts like this in as many fields as I can, and devour everything they write/say to the extent I can find the time. You can learn a lot from knowledgeable people that are willing and able to share their insights.

      In addition, spend as much time as you can looking at as many companies as you can, and then follow the companies' progress over time, whether or not you buy them. Over time, you will steadily accumulate a database of experience to draw on, and you will get faster and faster at analysing companies. The first time you ever look at a bank, you'll be confused and bewildered. It will take you a long time to get your head around all the issues. But just start learning - for eg if you encounter an acronym, google it and look it up. And keep an eye out for people referencing an issue, risk, or opportunity you haven't thought of before, as it will guide you to areas where you need to do more work/thinking. Over time, you'll deepen your knowledge, and you'll eventually be able to value a bank very quickly and accurately.

      Listening to company investor day or conference presentations, and the Q&A with knowledgeable analysts & fund managers, is also an excellent way to learn. Many (US in particular) companies have webinars or conf call playbacks readily available on their websites. Pick and industry or company and start trying to learn the ins and outs, and then also read articles & especially the Q&A on platforms like Seeking Alpha. It will expose you to a variety of different perspectives/angles, which is helpful.

      Hope this helps. Good luck!
      LT3000

      Delete
  19. The massive global corruption by our elites is about to be exposed, keep an eye on when that starts because the landscape in "assets" is going to look a lot different.

    ReplyDelete
  20. Great post and excellent writing, as always.

    Tangential to your thinking here, if assets are what have become relatively scarce in this scenario, one might expect certain consequences, some of which you've commented on in past posts. For instance, an entrepreneur today, even more so than in the past, might consider going into the business of meeting the demand from investors as opposed to that from consumers, where the process of creating new assets might be more relevant to a final analysis than creating new economic value. As you've noted before, one approach that seems to have worked in this respect is to demonstrate to prospective investors just how quickly one can grow by selling the proverbial "dollar for 90 cents." This might even be one of the more honorable approaches, as the tricks, schemes, vehicles, models devised by entrepreneurs and entrepreneurial bankers seem to evolve as rapidly as ever, although the real point is that the problem is compounded when investors, desperate for returns in a low-return world, are bound to be more easily tempted. Second, I can't recall if you've opined on bitcoin, but it certainly has the attractive feature of something in which one can put one's money that has the potential to generate a return, where this potential itself is bound to have greater value in a low-return world. Third, the demand for "ponzis" and frauds, while always healthy, might be expected to increase, in spite of the copious lessons from which investors should have learned better by now. (Or, in a low-return world, is it because of those lessons? I shudder to think.)

    Given the serious social and political implications that you discuss in this post, I only hope that certain speculative behaviors, such as those referenced above, do not increase to the point that they end in a collapse significant enough to make a tough social and political situation even tougher.

    ReplyDelete
  21. We have large asset inflation in stocks, bonds, real estate, etc. Doesn't that modify the common perception that "there's no inflation"?

    I agree with jaberwocky above that "creative destruction" of unproductive capital would limit supply, increase investment,raise prices. Free market economics as opposed to excessive CB money creation leading negative rates and a zombie economy.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. To a large extent, how you answer the Q in your first para is dependent on semantics - how do you define inflation? If you define inflation so as to include an increase in asset prices, then yes, money printing is 'inflationary'.

      In my personal view, we should not entangle asset price and real economy goods and services price inflation. For real estate, the latter would be rents; asset price increases pertaining to falling rental yields are the former.

      Inflation is fundamentally about scarcity - the demand for goods and services exceeding the capacity of the economy to supply those goods and services. If that situation does not exist, but asset prices are going up, then I don't think it's helpful to consider the latter 'inflation' - it is a different phenomenon entirely. Not one without its problems, for sure, but a different set of issues to real economy inflation.

      Delete
  22. Thank you for your blog post, Lyall.

    I am a newbie to economics and finance. Only recently have I tried to learn about monetary policy, banking and the GFC because frankly, the economy confuses me and the rise of populism concerns me.

    Your universal theory (of sorts) has put together what have been seemingly contradictory puzzle pieces. It's so compelling I read it twice and took notes the 2nd time!

    I was wondering:

    1) Do you have any suggestions on an essay/paper which offers a different explanation on post-GFC economics? I'm curious how other smart, reputable folks explain what is happening.

    2) Do you have any suggestions about how an individual can preserve their wealth in the scenario of prolonged low/negative interest rates? The rising prices of stocks & home prices make those seem like scary assets to own.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks for your comment. To reply to your Qs:

      1) Not really. My view is not the mainstream opinion. As noted in the article, Richard Koo is probably one of the relatively few economists who 'gets it', although even I disagree with him slightly on a few points. I highly recommend his book 'The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics' though.

      2) The best strategy is always to find assets trading at a relatively low price relative to the cash they are likely to distribute over time, and where the probability that you receive less cash back over time than you pay is low (margin of safety). That is an all seasons strategy. It doesn't matter what or where the assets are (what industry, country, or asset class), provided those conditions are fulfilled.

      Best,
      LT3000

      Delete
  23. You should read Kondratieff's long wave theory and Neil Howe's 4th Turning. Most of what you say i have come to a similar conclusion. Although you probably extrapolated some of the points further that i had contemplated

    What will cause the next event? 1955 was the peak year for births in the US. Considering retirement age in the US is 65, this year is the peak year for retirements. For the next 7 years 3~4 million workers will retire each year and by 2027 most of the 75 million Baby Boomers will be retired or dead. No more paychecks, less spending, selling down assets = interesting times this decade. Your excess savings could disappear with a glut of savers giving up saving.

    ReplyDelete
  24. Additionally, you noted a 1929-32 depression wipeout of the banks. If you're an Australian, unfortunately not one single Australian bank went out of business during the great depression. The whole 11 survived the event. If however you're looking for real banking failure and real wage collapse, you can't go past the 1890's depression. They even had bank bail-in's of customers savings

    ReplyDelete
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  28. Thanks very much for writing this; I have been baffled for years by how the U.S. stock market keeps going up despite no visible improvement in the rest of America.

    But I'm not in finance, and I don't understand a key point: how do negative interest rates act as a wealth tax? It seems like if I am ultra-rich (or a bank) and I can borrow with negative interest, wouldn't I want to just borrow a billion dollars, park it anywhere and wait for the money to roll in? Or better yet, invest in the stock market bubble and turn it into cash when signs of an impending pop occur? For the prudent wealthy, it seems like the worst case scenario is periods of ~0% return, but based on this post it sounds like we're far from reaching that point.

    How does this money connect with the working class, especially in the short to medium term?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks Qwertie,

      It is the wealthy that hold all the deposits - not just high net worth individuals, but also large corporate bank balances. If they are charged a negative interest rate to park their funds at the bank - say -0.5% - it has the same de facto impact as a 0% rate and 0.5% wealth tax. And it's much higher if you factor in inflation of 1-2%. That's a 2% pa real erosion in the value of those deposits.

      The bank, in turn, gets charged negative interest rates by the central bank. When the depositor parks the money with the bank, the bank then parks the money with the central bank as excess reserves, unless it can find a better use for the funds, which as the article discusses, they are increasingly unable to. The central bank charges the bank 0.5% on deposits with the central bank, and banks the profit. As the central bank is government owned, it is effectively a wealth tax.

      Right now, not many people can borrow at negative rates. A few very high quality corporates might be able to borrow for short periods at say -0.1% in Europe. But that's only because people are trying to avoid having to pay -0.5% holding cash. The corporate makes 0.1%, but whoever ends up the depositor still loses 0.5%. If the corporate borrows, for eg, the cash they receive will become a bank deposit on which they pay 0.5%. If they use the funds to buy - say - a piece of real estate, whoever sells the real estate then ends up with the cash and deposits it at 0.5%. So overall from a system basis, it is effectively a wealth tax.

      Banks would not allow you to borrow money to buy stocks. Brokers can and do, but they will require perhaps a minimum LVR of 50%, and the loan is secured by the stock, and if the stock goes down, you become a forced seller at the worst possible time. A lot of people got margined out in the recent covid-19 sell off for e.g. And brokers usually charge much higher interest rates.

      The money connects with the working class by being profit banked by the central bank, which can be used to fund government spending, which benefits the poor/middle class.

      Cheers,
      LT

      Delete
    2. That's very interesting, I had not heard of the concept of negative interest being applied to deposits - or the rule that banks must ever park cash in the central bank. Is any of this U.S.-specific? Have most countries switched to such similar monetary systems that you can kind of treat them all the same? (I've always kind of wondered what the World Bank does... are they involved at all?)

      Are negative interest rates already happening anywhere on a regular basis? My own (Canadian) bank has always given 0.5% on deposits (though it used to be more) and sometimes boosts the interest rate on new deposits to 1-2%... the bank must therefore have reliable ways to make a return, though my impression is that Canadian banks (but not American ones) are prohibited from investing in stocks/securities.

      Delete
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    hello everyone here i am SYLER TAYLER am a medical doctor from UK but currently in NEW YORK i want to share a great testimony of how Dr SALATO herbal mixture cream saves me from shame and disgrace, my penis was a big problem to me as the size was really so embarrassing and discouraging, a 35 year old  grown man like me having 3.5 inches penis and to worsen it i don't last more than 10 minute  in bed it was really a thing of shame my wife was really tired of me because my sex life was very  very poor , she never enjoyed sex with me, i was always thinking and searching for a solutions everywhere until last one months ago when i saw a testimony of how Dr SALATO herbal mixture cream have been helping people around the globe,i saw one MR TIMOTHY  testifying of how Dr SALATO helped him enlarge his penis size from 4 to 8 inches so i decided to give him a try ,i visited his website link https://drsalatosolutionte0.wixsite.com/drsalato     we talked and he gave me steps to follow which i did and to my greatest surprise in less than two weeks of taking the herbal mixture cream my penis grow to 7 inches i couldn't believe my eyes and as i speak now my penis is now 9 inches long and i was amazed when my wife said i satisfy her so well in bed now all thanks to Dr SALATO  herbal mixture cream,i will forever be grateful To him i also learnt that Dr SALATO also have the herbal cure to problems like
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    ALS
    HPV 123
    PILE
    ASTHMA
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    PREMATURE EJACULATION
    HEPATITIS A,B,C AND MANY MORE
    so if you are suffering from any of these problems please do not hesitate to contact him now email drsalatosolutiontemple@gmail.com  or visit His website https://drsalatosolutionte0.wixsite.com/drsalato ,  you can call/whatsapp him via +2348103629945 THANKS   

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  33. My Name is Dr AZIBA, Herbal Remedy Product is 100% guarantee for Penis Enlargement growth and Thickness you can Contact Me via Email Priestazibasolutioncenter@gmail.com For Best natural male enhancement Product with 100% guaranteed results. I prepare top Herbal selling male enhancement product with herbal formula and no side-effects And also for other Disease or virus such as HPV,HSV,HERPES,HEPATITIS, DIABETES,CANCER and lots More, Contact Me Via Email: Priestazibasolutioncenter@gmail.com and WhatsApp +2348100368288 Or website https://naturalherbsmedicine.webs.com/

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  35. A recent report that 93 per cent of invasive cervical cancers worldwide contain human papillomavirus (HPV) may be an underestimate, due to sample usabio inadequacy or integration events affecting the HPV L1 gene, which is the target of the polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based test which was used. The formerly HPV-negative cases from this study have therefore been reanalyzed for usabio HPV serum antibodies and HPV DNA. Serology for HPV 16 VLPs, E6, and E7 antibodies was performed on 49 of the 66 cases which were HPV-negative and a sample of 48 of the 866 cases which were HPV-positive in the original study. Moreover, 55 of the 66 formerly HPV-negative biopsies were also reanalyzed by a sandwich procedure in which the outer sections in a series of sections are used for histological review, while the inner sections are assayed by three different HPV PCR assays targeting different open reading frames (ORFs). No significant difference usabio was found in serology for HPV 16 proteins between the cases that were usabio originally HPV PCR-negative and -positive. Type-specific E7 PCR for 14 high-risk HPV types detected HPV DNA in 38 (69 per cent) of the 55 originally HPV-negative and amplifiable specimens. The HPV types detected were 16, 18, 31, 33, 39, 45, 52, and 58. Two (4 per cent) additional cases were only HPV DNA-positive by E1 and/or L1 consensus PCR. Histological analysis of the 55 specimens revealed that 21 were qualitatively inadequate. Only two of the 34 adequate samples were HPV-negative on all PCR tests, as against 13 of the 21 that usabio were usabio inadequate ( p< 0.001). Combining the data from this and the previous study and excluding inadequate specimens, the worldwide HPV prevalence in cervical carcinomas is 99.7 per cent. The presence of HPV in virtually all cervical usabio cancers implies the highest worldwide attributable fraction so far reported for a specific cause of any major human cancer. The extreme rarity of HPV-negative cancers reinforces the rationale for HPV testing in addition to, or even instead of, cervical cytology in routine cervical screening.








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  37. Hello everyone i am Benard Miller from the united states of america   i want to tell the whole world of great  Dr Harry herbal mixture i was unhappy ever since my girlfriend back then in college mocked me of having a small penis and weak in bed ,ever since then i have been trying to improve my sex life but all effort failed ..but it got worse when i got married ,my wife is so angry with me and Threatened to leave me if i do not find a way and i love my wife so much so one faithful day i was reading some comments on a blog then i saw a comment of one Mr Tom Sullivan new Orleans testifying of how Dr Harry helped him enlarge his penis and Fertilise his sperm count so i quickly contacted him by his website link https://drharryherbaltempl.wixsite.com/solutiontemple      and he got back to me and i did as he said ..to my greatest surprise i got 10 inches within two weeks of using his herbal medicine and now its just 3 weeks i am having 10.5 inches i am so happy now..my wife told me am so good in bed that i almost killed her last night all thanks to him note he also cure sicknesses and diseases like 
    PENIS ENLARGEMENT ERECTILE DYSFUNCTION DIABETES type 1 and type 2  HERPES GENITAL WART
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    BREAST ENLARGEMENT
    PROSTRATE CANCER
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    so if you need his help contact him on his email drharrysolution@gmail.com   website link https://drharryherbaltempl.wixsite.com/solutiontemple    or whatsapp him on +2349036417079  thanks          

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  38. Never give up in life they all say no cure to HSV 2 which is a big lie I have pass through many process also i never believe there is really cure to HERPES until I meet Dr Shaibu the doctor that have been helping many people for many years, I came across this doctor online when I was searching for cure online I found out about this man, and to my greatest surprise this man have the herbal medicine which I have been looking for years I explain my problem to him through the email I found on someone who testify about him also, Dr Shaibu write me a reply and explain how the process work so after ordering for the medicine I got it within 4 days and I took it according to the way Dr Shaibu instructed, I was so happy after two week I took the medicine there was very big change in my health when I was done with the process I go for test, I found out I am negative that was the day I have the tears of joy you can also get in contact with my doctor through his email now drshaibuabacha@gmail.com or WhatsApp him +2349051727475. And He also have herbs medicine to cured the following diseases; eczema,urethra wart,chronic problems.Herpes, Cancer, Als,Hepatitis, Diabetes, HPV,Infections,ulcer  ETC

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  40. I'm very happy to share this little awesome testimony about Dr AZIBA a great Herbal Doctor who helped me Enlarge my Penis size from .3.2 inch to 8.3 inch longer with his African Herbal Product mixture. my wife is so amazed with the autonomous size of my penis. if you are in need of help to enlarge your Penis to Bigger and Thicker size, I advice you to contact Dr Aziba on his Personal Email Address ( PRIESTAZIBASOLUTIONCENTER@GMAIL COM ) or contact him on whatsapp Chat +2348100368288 his one of the best African Herbal doctor recommended to help you with the best and effective Herbal Product to enlarge your penis from as smaller as 2.2 inch to 9.2 inch within two weeks of use, Dr AZIBA is also specialized on the solution to LOW SPERM COUNT. i advise you to contact him for help. DR AZIBA whatsapp number +2348100368288...

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  42. I recently end natural treatment from herbalist healer which i used to got rid of my hpv i only applied the treatment for two week. it so amazing i eliminated this disease out from my body. i also recommend everyone suffering from this horrible disease should also be cure you can reach Doc Onokun via email; Dronokunherbalcure@gmail.com or his website www.Dronokunherbalcure.wordpress.com or https://www.facebook.com/naturaltreatmentcenter1    

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  43. HAVING A BIG PENIS MAKES YOU FEEL COMFORTABLE DURING SEX BECAUSE YOU NO THAT YOUR WOMAN IS SATISFIED WITH YOUR BANANA AND SHE IS HAPPY EVERY TIME YOU HAVE SEX WITH HER, waste no time any more make your penis big enough for your woman and make her happy like every other woman out there, Doctor Aziba product are 100 %guarantee with no side effects Doctor Aziba or what's app@+2348100368288 or Email PRIESTAZIBASOLUTIONCENTER@GMAIL.COM

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  44. I recently end natural treatment from herbalist healer which i used to got rid of my hpv i only applied the treatment for two week. it so amazing i eliminated this disease out from my body. i also recommend everyone suffering from this horrible disease should also be cure you can reach Doc Onokun via email; Dronokunherbalcure@gmail.com or his website www.Dronokunherbalcure.wordpress.com or https://www.facebook.com/naturaltreatmentcenter1    

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  46. I was cured of CANCER with the used of natural herbs. My name is celina jolly and am from US. I love herbs so much. Most times, injection and drugs are just a waste of time. I was cured 8 months ago, i suffered from CANCER for 3 yrs but with the help of Dr.Sayo herbal medicine, i was cured within few weeks of drinking the herbs he sent to me through courier delivery service. This same doctor also cured my Aunty from FIBROID, as soon as i heard she had FIBROID, i quickly refer her to Dr.Sayo and she was cured too after drinking his herbs.I have referred more than 15 persons to Dr.Sayo and they were all cured from their various illness. Have you taken herbs before?. You have spent so much money on drugs,injections,surgeries etc and yet you have no good result to show for it. Contact Dr. Sayo now, he is a herbalist doctor, i assured you of a cure if you drink his natural herbs. Dr.Sayo have herbs that cures Hiv, Herpes, diabetics, asthma, hepatitis, HBP, STD, cancer, chronic, etc. Contact Dr Sayo through his Email address on: sayoherbalhealer@gmail.com or WHATSAPP/CALL him on+2349012175679 Visit his FB page: https://www.facebook.com/Sayo-Herbal-Healer-100145798345000/    
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  47. I actually was told otherwise, that the herpes can not be treated and that there is no way to make it go away once you have it. But I decided to do my own research and found out it is possible to fight it.. I got a lot of information about it here in forums and online,I got Dr Oje Abacha contact on a group were a man from Cordova was sharing his testimony of how he cured him of herpes so I decided to give him a try I emailed him through oje.herbalsolutioncentre@gmail.com . he called me to know if I actually wanted the cured after which the cure was sent to me few days later I was surprised when the same doctor who told me that I was diagnosed of herpes told me that I was completely free from herpes you can reach him through his email oje.herbalsolutioncentre@gmail.com . or through his WhatsApp +2348159734766 if you are diagnosed and also wanna be free from this deadly virus because he is really gonna be of help to you  

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  48. HAVING A BIG PENIS MAKES YOU FEEL COMFORTABLE DURING SEX BECAUSE YOU NO THAT YOUR WOMAN IS SATISFIED WITH YOUR BANANA AND SHE IS HAPPY EVERY TIME YOU HAVE SEX WITH HER, waste no time any more make your penis big enough for your woman and make her happy like every other woman out there, Doctor Aziba product are 100 %guarantee with no side effects Doctor Aziba or what'sapp// +2348100368288 or Email// PRIESTAZIBASOLUTIONCENTER@GMAIL.COM



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  49. HAVING A BIG PENIS MAKES YOU FEEL COMFORTABLE DURING SEX BECAUSE YOU NO THAT YOUR WOMAN IS SATISFIED WITH YOUR BANANA AND SHE IS HAPPY EVERY TIME YOU HAVE SEX WITH HER, waste no time any more make your penis big enough for your woman and make her happy like every other woman out there, Doctor Aziba product are 100 %guarantee with no side effects Doctor Aziba or what'sapp// +2348100368288 or Email// PRIESTAZIBASOLUTIONCENTER@GMAIL.COM



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  50. EFFECTIVE LOVE SPELL TO GET EX HUSBAND/BOYFRIEND OR EX WIFE/GIRLFRIEND AND CURE HERPES AND INFERTILITY THAT WORKS WITHIN 24 HOURS.

     Contact Dr. Odunga at odungaspelltemple@gmail.com OR Whats App/CALL +2348167159012

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  51. HERBAL MEDICINE THAT CAN HELP YOU GET RID OF HERPES DISEASE/VIRUS........  
    Do you need a herbal products to cure your Herpes Disease contact Dr. Kham to help and he will surely help you to cure your Herpes Virus in two weeks time ..i has suffered from Herpes Virus for 4 years that almost took my life, but one day I was searching for the possible cure on internet, so luckily i found so many Reviews about Dr. Kham on how he Help people in curing their deadly diseases, and i contact Dr. Kham asked him for solutions and he started the remedies for my health..he prepared a powerful Herbal medicine for me and i received The herbal medicine and after using it for 2 weeks my condition has greatly improved, all my symptoms/outbreak was stop, so i went to my doc and was confirmed negative.I am Herpes Virus free! contact this Herbal doctor via his email dr.khamcaregiver@gmail.com or Whatsapp: +2348159922297 butyou can also visit his website to know more about him at  https://drkhamherbalhealingcenter.wordpress.com/  or https://drkhamcaregiver.wixsite.com/drkhamcaregiverherba   or Visit his FB PAGE: https://web.facebook.com/Dr-Kham-Herbal-Remedies-101547721440460/    

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  52. hello everyone here i am Martin Lawrence  a Hotel manager in Miami  , i want to share a great testimony of how Dr HARRY  herbal mixture cream saves me from shame and disgrace, my penis size was a big problem to me as the size was really so embarrassing and discouraging, a 39 year old full grown man like me having 4 inches penis and to worsen it i don't last in sex i cant even last two minutes it was really a thing of shame my wife was really tired of me because my sex life was very poor , she never enjoyed sex, i was always thinking and searching for solutions everywhere until last two months when i saw a testimony of how Dr HARRY  herbal mixture cream have been helping people from the globe,i saw one MR PAUL KEWAH  testifying of how Dr HARRY helped him enlarge his penis size so i decided to give him a try ,i visited his website link  https://drharryherbaltempl.wixsite.com/solutiontemple    we talked and he gave me steps to follow which i did and to my greatest surprise in less than two weeks of taking the herbal mixture cream my penis grow to 8 inches i couldn't believe my eyes and as i speak now my penis is now 10.5 inches long and i was amazed when my wife said i satisfy her so well now all thanks to Dr HARRY  herbal mixture cream,i will forever be grateful To him i also learnt that Dr HARRY also have the herbal cure to problems like
    PENIS ENLARGEMENT
    ERECTILE DYSFUNCTION
    DIABETES type 1 and type 2
    HERPES GENITAL WART
    LOW SPERM COUNT
    WEAK ERECTION
    BREAST ENLARGEMENT
    PROSTRATE CANCER
    HIV/AIDS
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    ALS
    HPV 123
    PILE
    ASTHMA
    HEART FAILURE
    PREMATURE EJACULATION
    HEPATITIS A,B,C AND MANY MORE
    so if you you are suffering from any of this problems please do not hesitate to contact him now email drharrysolution@gmail.com website  https://drharryherbaltempl.wixsite.com/solutiontemple    you can call him or Whatsapp Dr Harry via whatsapp +2349036417079 thanks      

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  55. HAVING A Long and Thicker PENIS gives you a 100% guarantee when meeting your girlfriend or wife and as well makes her respect you more as the real man for being able to satisfy her sexual needs. waste no more time, get in contact with Doctor Aziba for his herbal product to help you get the actual size deserved for your woman and make her happy like every other women out there, Doctor Aziba product is 100% Vegans and guarantee with no side effects Contact Doctor Aziba via whatsApp: +2348100368288 or mail him: PRIESTAZIBASOLUTIONCENTER@GMAIL.COM

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  56. HAVING A Long and Thicker PENIS gives you a 100% guarantee when meeting your girlfriend or wife and as well makes her respect you more as the real man for being able to satisfy her sexual needs. waste no more time, get in contact with Doctor Aziba for his herbal product to help you get the actual size deserved for your woman and make her happy like every other women out there, Doctor Aziba product is 100% Vegans and guarantee with no side effects Contact Doctor Aziba via whatsApp: +2348100368288 or mail him: PRIESTAZIBASOLUTIONCENTER@GMAIL.COM

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  58. I'm very happy to share this little awesome testimony about Dr AZIBA a great Herbal Doctor who helped me Enlarge my Penis size from .3.2 inch to 8.3 inch longer with his African Herbal Product mixture. my wife is so amazed with the autonomous size of my penis. if you are in need of help to enlarge your Penis to Bigger and Thicker size, I advice you to contact Dr Aziba on his Personal Email Address ( PRIESTAZIBASOLUTIONCENTER@GMAIL COM ) or contact him on whatsapp Chat +2348100368288 his one of the best African Herbal doctor recommended to help you with the best and effective Herbal Product to enlarge your penis from as smaller as 2.2 inch to 9.2 inch within two weeks of use, Dr AZIBA is also specialized on the solution to LOW SPERM COUNT. i advise you to contact him for help. DR AZIBA whatsapp number +2348100368288.

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  59. Dr. Kham Miracle Herbal Medicine is The Best, It Helps Me to Eradicate My Herpes Virus Just in Two Weeks.......
    Why go to expensive treatment in hospitals whereby Dr Kham Herbal Medicine is here to clean you from Herpes and many more illnesses …  I had Herpes for 9 months they all tell me there was no cure for me I have go to different hospital I always have same news, I was confused because I feel like ending my life but i thank God I was able to locate herbal doctor Kham who help me I found his email on site how people was writing Good about him I never believe he can really cured me until when I get my test done. I am so happy to tell you this herbal doctor Kham has a herbal cure for Herpes and you can take the medicine according to his instructions. You will find out that you will give testimony like me. I took his herbal medicine for just 2 week. I am so happy today that I am really free from this sickness. Here is herbal doctor Kham email dr.khamcaregiver@gmail.com or Whatsapp: +2348159922297  you can also visit his website to know more about him at  https://drkhamherbalhealingcenter.wordpress.com/  or https://drkhamcaregiver.wixsite.com/drkhamcaregiverherba   or Visit his FB PAGE: https://web.facebook.com/Dr-Kham-Herbal-Remedies-101547721440460/    ………………………………. you can reach him out now 

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  60. Dr. Kham Miracle Herbal Medicine is The Best, It Helps Me to Eradicate My Herpes Virus Just in Two Weeks.......
    Why go to expensive treatment in hospitals whereby Dr Kham Herbal Medicine is here to clean you from Herpes and many more illnesses …  I had Herpes for 9 months they all tell me there was no cure for me I have go to different hospital I always have same news, I was confused because I feel like ending my life but i thank God I was able to locate herbal doctor Kham who help me I found his email on site how people was writing Good about him I never believe he can really cured me until when I get my test done. I am so happy to tell you this herbal doctor Kham has a herbal cure for Herpes and you can take the medicine according to his instructions. You will find out that you will give testimony like me. I took his herbal medicine for just 2 week. I am so happy today that I am really free from this sickness. Here is herbal doctor Kham email dr.khamcaregiver@gmail.com or Whatsapp: +2348159922297  you can also visit his website to know more about him at  https://drkhamherbalhealingcenter.wordpress.com/  or https://drkhamcaregiver.wixsite.com/drkhamcaregiverherba   or Visit his FB PAGE: https://web.facebook.com/Dr-Kham-Herbal-Remedies-101547721440460/    ………………………………. you can reach him out now 

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  61. I am really happy that i have been cured from (HERPES SIMPLEX VIRUS) with the herbal medicine of Dr OGBENI , i have been suffering from this disease for the past 3 years and 4 mouth without solution until i came across the email of this doctor who have cure so many people with his herbal medicine, i also choose to give him a chance to help me and my husband, he told me what to do and i kindly did it, and he gave us his herbal medicine and direct me on how to use it, i also follow his instructions for use and he ask us to go for a check up after 1 week and 5days which i did, to my greatest surprise our result came out as negative, we are really happy that there is someone like this doctor who is ready to help anytime any day. To all the readers and viewers that is doubting this testimony stop doubting it and contact this doctor if you really have one and see if he will not actually help you. i am not a stupid woman that i will come out to the public and start saying what someone have not done for me and i know that there are some people out there who are really suffering and hurting their family just because of these diseases so you can Email him on dr.ogbeniherbalhome@gmail.com OR
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  65. HOW I GOT MY LOVER BACK BY POWERFUL SPELL CASTER CALLED DR PADMAN

    I want to let the world know about Doctor PADMAN the Great spell caster that brought back my husband to me when i thought all hope was lost My husband left me for another woman three months ago and ever since then my life have been filled with pains sorrow and heart break because he was my first love whom i have spent my entire life with,A friend of mine told me he saw some testimonies of a spell caster called PADMAN that he can bring back lover within some few days I contacted him, Doctor PADMAN used his powerful spell to put a smile on my face by bringing back my man with his spell, at first i thought i was dreaming when my husband came back to me on his knees begging me to forgive him and accepted, get your divorce wife or husband back, I will advise you to contact him ,he is there to help you and put a smile on your face HIS EMAIL: padmanlovespell@yahoo.com or info@padmanspell.com Webesit: http://padmanspell.com/ or WhatsApp +19492293867

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  67. I Want To Appreciate Dr OYAGU for his great deeds, I Was Diagnosed With type 2 Herpes Virus Last year,And i Was Looking For Solution To Be Cured Luckily I Saw Testimonies On How Dr OYAGU Cure Herpes Virus I Decided To Contact Dr OYAGU I Contacted Him He Prepared A Herbal Medicine Portion And Sent It To Me,I Started The Herbal Medicine For My Health.He Gave Me Step By Step Instructions On How To Apply It, When I Applied It As Instructed, I Was Cured Of This Deadly Herpes Within 2 weeks, I Am Now Herpes Negative.My Brother And Sister I No That There Are So Many People That Have The Same Herpes Virus Please contact Dr OYAGU To Help You Too,And Help Me To Thank Dr OYAGU For Cure Me, I’m Cured By Dr. OYAGU Herbal Medicine,His Contact Email:oyaguherbalhome@gmail.com
    Or Cell Whatsapp Number +2348101755322 thank you

    ReplyDelete
  68. I Want To Appreciate Dr OYAGU for his great deeds, I Was Diagnosed With type 2 Herpes Virus Last year,And i Was Looking For Solution To Be Cured Luckily I Saw Testimonies On How Dr OYAGU Cure Herpes Virus I Decided To Contact Dr OYAGU I Contacted Him He Prepared A Herbal Medicine Portion And Sent It To Me,I Started The Herbal Medicine For My Health.He Gave Me Step By Step Instructions On How To Apply It, When I Applied It As Instructed, I Was Cured Of This Deadly Herpes Within 2 weeks, I Am Now Herpes Negative.My Brother And Sister I No That There Are So Many People That Have The Same Herpes Virus Please contact Dr OYAGU To Help You Too,And Help Me To Thank Dr OYAGU For Cure Me, I’m Cured By Dr. OYAGU Herbal Medicine,His Contact Email:oyaguherbalhome@gmail.com
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    ReplyDelete
  69. Hello everyone, Are you into trading or just wish to give it a try, please becareful on the platform you choose to invest on and the manager you choose to manage your account because that’s where failure starts from be wise. After reading so much comment i had to give trading tips a try, I have to come to the conclusion that binary options pays massively but the masses has refused to show us the right way to earn That’s why I have to give trading tips the accolades because they have been so helpful to traders . For a free masterclass strategy kindly contact (paytondyian699@gmail.com) for a free masterclass strategy. He'll give you a free tutors on how you can earn and recover your losses in trading for free..or Whatsapp +1 562 384 7738

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  70. I am so happy to share this fantastic testimony of mine. My life has changed completely in 48hours. I can see myself in the mirror and smile. I have confidence in myself and my abilities for the first time in ages. I have my husband back in my life with the help of Dr Oniha. He said sorry after 24hours, after the spell was created. He said he realized that he never really wanted to break up; he could not handle the emotional baggage I was carrying around all the time. He said that he thought he was the negative influence in my life and thought it best to leave. He said it was hard that I kept talking about the past all the time. We have both forgiven each other. I have money in my pocket that is my own at last. (My compensation cheque came through and I was told it was months away. I am living proof of what Dr Oniha can do. I thank you so much Dr Oniha for the wonderful thing you did in my marriage. I am so happy now. With your help we were both able to see and speak the truth to each other. I never thought a spell could help a couple before I am very pleased to contact you and initiate all this to happen. Anyone who has a relationship problem can contact Dr Oniha.
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  71. Hello everyone, Are you into trading or just wish to give it a try, please becareful on the platform you choose to invest on and the manager you choose to manage your account because that’s where failure starts from be wise. After reading so much comment i had to give trading tips a try, I have to come to the conclusion that binary options pays massively but the masses has refused to show us the right way to earn That’s why I have to give trading tips the accolades because they have been so helpful to traders . For a free masterclass strategy kindly contact (paytondyian699@gmail.com) for a free masterclass strategy. He'll give you a free tutors on how you can earn and recover your losses in trading for free..or Whatsapp +1 562 384 7738

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  72. I'm very happy to share this little awesome testimony about Dr AZIBA a great Herbal Doctor who helped me Enlarge my Penis size from .3.2 inch to 8.3 inch longer with his African Herbal Product mixture. my wife is so amazed with the autonomous size of my penis. if you are in need of help to enlarge your Penis to Bigger and Thicker size, I advice you to contact Dr Aziba on his Personal Email Address ( PRIESTAZIBASOLUTIONCENTER@GMAIL COM ) or contact him on whatsapp Chat +2348100368288 his one of the best African Herbal doctor recommended to help you with the best and effective Herbal Product to enlarge your penis from as smaller as 2.2 inch to 9.2 inch within two weeks of use, Dr AZIBA is also specialized on the solution to LOW SPERM COUNT. i advise you to contact him for help. DR AZIBA whatsapp number +2348100368288...........

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  73. I'm very happy to share this little awesome testimony about Dr AZIBA a great Herbal Doctor who helped me Enlarge my Penis size from .3.2 inch to 8.3 inch longer with his African Herbal Product mixture. my wife is so amazed with the autonomous size of my penis. if you are in need of help to enlarge your Penis to Bigger and Thicker size, I advice you to contact Dr Aziba on his Personal Email Address ( PRIESTAZIBASOLUTIONCENTER@GMAIL COM ) or contact him on whatsapp Chat +2348100368288 his one of the best African Herbal doctor recommended to help you with the best and effective Herbal Product to enlarge your penis from as smaller as 2.2 inch to 9.2 inch within two weeks of use, Dr AZIBA is also specialized on the solution to LOW SPERM COUNT. i advise you to contact him for help. DR AZIBA whatsapp number +2348100368288...........

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  74. I'm very happy to share this little awesome testimony about Dr AZIBA a great Herbal Doctor who helped me Enlarge my Penis size from .3.2 inch to 8.3 inch longer with his African Herbal Product mixture. my wife is so amazed with the autonomous size of my penis. if you are in need of help to enlarge your Penis to Bigger and Thicker size, I advice you to contact Dr Aziba on his Personal Email Address ( PRIESTAZIBASOLUTIONCENTER@GMAIL COM ) or contact him on whatsapp Chat +2348100368288 his one of the best African Herbal doctor recommended to help you with the best and effective Herbal Product to enlarge your penis from as smaller as 2.2 inch to 9.2 inch within two weeks of use, Dr AZIBA is also specialized on the solution to LOW SPERM COUNT. i advise you to contact him for help. DR AZIBA whatsapp number +2348100368288....

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  75. effective and powerfull love spell to return ex lover contact dr jumba Call/WhatsApp him:  +19085174108   
    my fiance broke up with me last week i was so sad I changed completely, I wasn't eating and i wasn't talking to anybody, I cried a lot,I was so depressed and stressed out that I was scared I'm going to end up in the hospital because of all the stress and depression until one day i search online on getting love tips because I Love & care about him deeply and I just want us to be together as a couple again and I want us to last forever then i found a powerful spell caster Called dr jumba that he solved so many relationship problem then dr jumba told me he will come back to me between 24hrs after he cast spell on him never believe it until my finance called me on the phone and told me he want us to come back and live happily together forever , Am so happy now that dr jumba help me bring my finance back to me. Thanks so much dr jumba  he can also help you Email him via:  wiccalovespelltools@gmail.com  or Call/WhatsApp him:  +19085174108   : blog : https://wiccaspelltools.blogspot.com/  
    WEBSITE:  drjumbaspellhome.wordpress.com   

    ReplyDelete
  76. Good day everybody, This is my testimony on how I won 53,193,914 million pounds on Mega millions lottery. I want to use this opportunity to thank Dr clement,for casting winning spell for me to win the lottery of 53,193,194 million pounds,lottery ticket.I have been playing lotteries for the past 5 years now and i have never won any. Ever since then i have not been able to win any lotto and i was so upset and i needed help to win this mega million lottery. so i decided to go online and search for help, there i saw so many good testimony about this man called Dr Iyaryi,of how he has cast lucky spell lotto for people to win the lottery. I contacted him also and tell him i want to win the Mega millions lottery, he cast a spell for me which i use to play and won 53.193,914 million pounds in mega millions lottery. I am so grateful to this man, just in-case you also need him to help you win, you can contact him through his Email: allmightbazulartemple@gmail.com, and he will surely help you just the way he has helped me. i will forever be grateful to him and always testify the good work of him to the hole world. contact him via Email: allmightbazulartemple@gmail.com, or you can also contact him through his email and he will surely help you to win any kind of lottery And also Reach him on WhatsApp Number +2347051758952 Thanks Dr. clement can also cure all others of infection disease with herbal medicine list of my work
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    10 IMPOTENC

    ReplyDelete
  77. NATURAL HERPES CURE.Herpes simplex virus is said to have no cure, just as i was told by my family doctor that herpes can not be cured but can be controlled, Although i was a very stubborn person i never believed in what my doctor told me about herpes having no cure. Am a very honest person who believe in nature and i also believed that there could be cure somewhere in the world, I kept my faith so strong and kept on doing my research till i saw an article shared by a testifier on How a herbal Doctor Razor from west Africa, i Decided to use his herbal medicine, so i Reached out to him and explained my situation to him, he promised to guide me, after 4 days of reaching out to him i received my medication sent to me by Doctor Razor and he instructed me to use it for 18 days, After Completion of his herbal medicine dosage, i went for a medical checkup as i was told by Doctor Razor. I am so happy and extremely excited that I got cured of this Virus. Massive gratitude to doctor Razor. Reach out to him via his clinic email : drrazorherbalhome@gmail.com  On whatsapp/call his cell phone +2349065420442. Together we stand a chance to fight herpes. Let's continue to share this till The whole world Gets to know that there is a herbal cure for herpes.God bless you all.

    ReplyDelete
  78. Hello Am From The UK , I want to write a little testimony about the good work of doctor Oyagu who cured me from Hsv 1 and 2 for just 2 weeks with his herbal medicine, I never believe I can be normal again and have a good life like others I always regretted the day I got diagnose with the virus, I was lost of hope when my doctor told me there is no cure for it but I keep thinking and thinking about my future, if I can have kids of my own well I am so grateful for my helper who get me cured with his herbal medicine, I go online in search of anything that can help me because I can’t deal with it forever so I found this doc Oyagu email on a blog of someone who was cured by him I quickly contact him for help and explain all my pain to him, he told me not to worry about it there is cure for real, I never believe until he send me the herbal medicine when I order for it and I have it within 4 days that is how I took the medicine for 2 week and the following week I go for test just to confirm I was 100% cured from this sickness what a miracle in my life I am so happy right now, you can also get in contact with him if you have such sickness through email address oyaguherbalhome@gmail.com or text him on what's app, phone number +2348101755322 or vist his website https://oyaguspellcaster.wixsite.com/oyaguherbalhome Dr Oyagu also has remedy to others disease like COLD SORES,HIV/AIDS,DIABETES.CANCER,HIGH BLOOD PRESSURE AND MANY MORE. I oblige everyone to contact this powerful herbalist Dr Oyagu and be free from suffering.

    ReplyDelete
  79. God bless Dr Uromi for his marvelous work in my life, I have been suffering from herpes virus since 2015 and I was taking my medications, and I wasn't really satisfied i needed to get this disease out of my system, I searched about some possible cure for herpes and hsv infections online when i saw some wonderful comments about Dr Uromi, how he cured hsv infections with his herbal medicine, I was relieve a little so I contacted him through the emaiL i got from the testifier, and i told him my problem and asked for solutions, he told he can help cure me completely if only i can trust him to work for me and i said yes i can and immediately he started the remedy for my health, and after which he sent me the medicine through UPS SPEED POST. I took the herbal remedy as directed by him and 14 days later i was cured from my herpes infection, thank you so much sir, so my dear viewers online if you have or know anyone out there suffering from Hsv, Herpes, Cold Sore, Fibroids, Anemia, Hiv etc i urged you to recommend them to Dr Uromi and i assure you he will be of great help. you can reach Dr Uromi on Email:: Druromiherbalhome@gmail.com . You can also add him on WhatsApp +2349021374574 .

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  80. *Herpes is a serious and recurring disease which can't be cured through drugs or injections by the American doctors but the best way to deal with Herpes is by taking natural herbs medicine for it and is only few American doctors that know about this herbal medicine from Dr oliha.. I have read about Dr oliha the great herbalist doctor from African who can cure Herpeewith his powerful herbal medicine. for the people suffering from the following diseases Hiv, Herpes, Cancer, Als,Herpatitis, Diabetes, Hpv,Infections ETC should contact him for his herbal medicine because i am a living testimony and i was cured of Herpes. Although, i sent him what he requested and he sent me his medicine which i took for two weeks and today when i went for test i was tested Herpes negative and he can also cure herpes etc you can reach him through his WhatsApp number:+2349038382931 he will help you out or email oliha.miraclemedicine@gmail.com or https://olihamiraclemedicine.webs.com/ *

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  84. Do You Need A Powerful Africa Native Doctor? I Mean A Spiritual Herbalist
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  86. I want to testify how Dr. BALBOSA cured me of my cronic Herpes that i have been suffering from over the past 4 years. Never give up in life they all say no cure to HSV 2 which is a big lie, I have pass through many processes and i never believe there is really cure to HERPES until I meet Dr BALBOSA the doctor that have been helping many people for many years, I came across this doctor online when I was searching for cure and to my greatest surprise this man have the herbal medicine which I have been looking for. I explained my problem to him through the email I found on someone who testify about him also, Dr.BALBOSA write me a reply and explain how the process work so after ordering for the medicine I got it within 4 days and I took it according to the way Dr.BALBOSA instructed, I was so happy after two week I took the medicine there was very big change in my health, when I was done with the process I went for a test and I found outthat i was negative... that was the day I have the tears of joy, you can also get in contact with my doctor through his email now on balbosaherbalhome@gmail.com or WhatsApp him +2347048047728...God bless you all




    I want to testify how Dr. BALBOSA cured me of my cronic Herpes that i have been suffering from over the past 4 years. Never give up in life they all say no cure to HSV 2 which is a big lie, I have pass through many processes and i never believe there is really cure to HERPES until I meet Dr BALBOSA the doctor that have been helping many people for many years, I came across this doctor online when I was searching for cure and to my greatest surprise this man have the herbal medicine which I have been looking for. I explained my problem to him through the email I found on someone who testify about him also, Dr.BALBOSA write me a reply and explain how the process work so after ordering for the medicine I got it within 4 days and I took it according to the way Dr.BALBOSA instructed, I was so happy after two week I took the medicine there was very big change in my health, when I was done with the process I went for a test and I found outthat i was negative... that was the day I have the tears of joy, you can also get in contact with my doctor through his email now on balbosaherbalhome@gmail.com or WhatsApp him +2347048047728...God bless you all

    ReplyDelete
  87. Am testifying of the miraculous work of a great traditional doctor called Dr Oje Abacha . I have been suffering from herpes since last 2 years with my Husband but today I am happy that am cure from it with the herbal medicine  made by Dr Oje Abacha the great healer, I was browsing the Internet searching for help when I came across a testimony shared by someone on how Dr Oje Abacha cure her from Herpes Disease. I quickly contacted him to get the cure and today i am now free from the Virus, Email him now for help at oje.herbalsolutioncentre@gmail.com you can also call him on +2348159734766  

    ReplyDelete
  88. DON'T BELIEVE THERE IS A CURE FOR HERPES? Well here is my testimony about a doctor who helped me when I was infected with HERPES on September 22, 2014, I went to many hospitals for cure but there was no solution, so I was thinking how can I get a solution so that my body can be okay. One day I was online and i saw the testimony of Mrs Amy Kendral speaking on how a man called Dr Razor helped her Eradicate the Herpes Simplex Infection that was eating her up every day, I Immediately emailed the Herbal Doctor Razor with the Details provided by This Woman on how to reach Him and I explained everything to him. Dr Razor told me all the things I needed to do and also gave me instructions to take a wish I followed properly. Before I knew what was happening after 18 days of taking the medication I started having changes in my body, so i told the herbalist of the development in my health and he asked me to go for a medical check up, the Doctors There were Amazed that Herpes have a Permanent and complete cured. Doctor Razor's website :  https://herbalistrazorherb.wixsite.com/drrazorherbalhome. You can Reach him on his Email via drrazorherbalhome@gmail.com . WhatsApp/Call him on +2349065420442. I made sure the Virus wasn't laying dormant in my nerve cells because I have heard of a situation like that. Before deciding to write this testimony so that many who are Battling with different kinds of Challenges Can also get cured

    ReplyDelete
  89. Thank you Dr. AGBOMIA for restoring back my health, I have been suffering from Herpes virus for over 2 years with many medication and there is no good results out of it, I want to give thanks to Dr. AGBOMIA for curing me with his herbal mixture wish I took for just 14 days and I'm free from herpes virus may God bless you. Contact him at dragbonherbalmedicine@gmail.com or Text him on WhatsApp +2348050495479 for your healing. you can visit his Website at https://dragbonherbalmedic.wixsite.com/welcometodoctoragbon
    ❤️❤️

    ReplyDelete


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  92. God bless Dr. USELU for his marvelous work in my life, I was diagnosed of HERPES SIMPLEX VIRUS since 2018 and I was taking my medications, I wasn’t satisfied i needed to get the HERPES out of my system, I searched about some possible cure for HERPES i saw a comment about Dr. USELU , how he cured HERPES with his herbal medicine, I contacted him and he guided me. I asked for solutions, he started the remedy for my health, he sent me the medicine within 3 days. I took the medicine as prescribed by him and 2weeks later i was cured from HERPES contact him via email (dr.uselucaregiver@gmail.com) once again thanks to you Dr. USELU cure the flowing virus, contact his email or add him on whatsapp (+2347052898482) cancer cure
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    Hepatitis

    ReplyDelete
  93. Contact DR OKITI to get complete herbal cure for herpes virus and other deadly disease. I used to be positive with herpes virus but i'm completely negative now with the help of DR OKITI  Herbs. I got to know about DR OKITI and he sent me a herbal medicine that i took for 14 days and now i am completely Negative of herpes virus without any side effect or complain. Contact DR OKITI for cure to all disease and i am sure you will find complete solution with him. Email: DROKITIHERBALHOME100@GMAIL.COM or Whatsapp: +2347050670365. He can also cure the following diseases/virus,1) HIV/AIDs Virus 2) Hepatitis B and C 3) Herpes 4) Cancer 5) ZIKA VIRUS 6) COPD 7) STROKE. 8) Erectile Dysfunction 9) Trichomoniasis 10) Chlamydia 11) Gonorrhea 12) HPV 13) Syphilis  

    ReplyDelete
  94. I have been suffering from Herpes for the past 3 years and 8 months, and ever since then i have been taking series of treatment but there was no improvement until i came across testimonies of Dr. Ojamo on how he has been curing different people from different diseases all over the world, then i contacted him as well. After our conversation he sent me the medicine which i took according to his instructions. When i was done taking the herbal medicine i went for a medical checkup and to my greatest surprise i was cured from Herpes. My heart is so filled with joy. If you are suffering from Herpes or any other disease you can contact Dr Ojamo today on his email via dr.ojamoherbalhome@gmail.com or you can reach him on WhatsApp via this Tell Number +2349077406037

    ReplyDelete
  95. HELLO PEACE  BE ON TO EVERYONE ON THIS PLATFORM! I,m here to explore blogs and forums about the wonderful and most safe cure for HERPES SIMPLEX VIRUS (HSV). I was positive to the deadly virus called HERPES and I lost hope because I was outcast and rejected even by my closet friends. I searched on-line to know an enquirer cure for HERPES and i read someone testimony on how he was cured from HSV-2 by Herbalist Razor,  After visiting his website :  https://herbalistrazorherb.wixsite.com/drrazorherbalhome so I decided to contact the same herbalist because i know that nature has the power to heal everything. i contacted him to know how he can help me and he told me never to worry that he will help me with the natural herbs from God! After 2 days of contacting him, he told me that the cure has been ready and he sent it to me via DHL and it got to me a few days later! I used the herbal med as he instructed me to do for 18 days, which I strictly did. And I was cured! It's really like a dream but I am so happy! That's the reason I decided to also add more comments on Him so that more can be saved just like me! and if you need his help, you can email him on drrazorherbalhome@gmail.com or whatsapp +2349065420442 I,m Janice and you can get in touch with me via janiceanthony147@gmail.com 

    ReplyDelete
  96. It’s obvious some patients with herpes are being enslaved to the antiviral and other supplementary Orthodox medicine just to help suppress the virus and not a cure. I have been with the virus since 2015 until I was introduced by a blogger who also narrated her story online on how she was cured of Genital Herpes after using Dr Sikies Herbal Medicine. This is a year and 2 weeks since I was delivered from genital Herpes. All thanks to God for using this Great herbalist to heal me. I have promised to keep telling good things about Dr Sikies. Please feel free to share Your problems with him and don’t forget to tell him I did refer you to Him. Thanks. Write him on mail Drsikies@gmail.com He deals with Alzheimer virus, Cancer, HIV, Herpes, Genital, warts, ALS, BV, UTI, Virginal infection, Genital, Wart, HPV, Hepatitis A/B, Good luck, HSV, Pregnancy, Ex back.

    here is his website: https://drsikiesherbalcure.weebly.com

    you can reach me via mail: anitalawson515@gmail.com

    ReplyDelete
  97. Hello Everyone,

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    Have you been looking for financing options for your new business plans, Are you seeking a loan to expand your existing business, Do you find yourself in a bit of trouble with unpaid bills and you don't know which way to go or where to turn to? Have you been turned down by your banks? Dr. Bradley Louis. says YES when your banks say NO. Contact us as we offer financial services at a low and affordable interest rate of 3% for long and short term loans. Interested applicants should contact us for further loan acquisition procedures.

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    ReplyDelete
  98. I Want To Appreciate Dr OYAGU for his great deeds, I Was Diagnosed With type 2 Herpes Virus Last year,And i Was Looking For Solution To Be Cured Luckily I Saw Testimonies On How Dr OYAGU Cure Herpes Virus I Decided To Contact Dr OYAGU I Contacted Him He Prepared A Herbal Medicine Portion And Sent It To Me,I Started The Herbal Medicine For My Health.He Gave Me Step By Step Instructions On How To Apply It, When I Applied It As Instructed, I Was Cured Of This Deadly Herpes Within 2 weeks, I Am Now Herpes Negative.My Brother And Sister I No That There Are So Many People That Have The Same Herpes Virus Please contact Dr OYAGU To Help You Too,And Help Me To Thank Dr OYAGU For Cure Me, I’m Cured By Dr. OYAGU Herbal Medicine,His Contact Email:oyaguherbalhome@gmail.com or viste his website https://oyaguspellcaster.wixsite.com/oyaguherbalhome
    Or Cell Whatsapp Number +2348101755322 thank you

    ReplyDelete

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  100. I am extremely pleased with the service LANX CREDIT SOLUTION provided. It was Awesome!!! They are a top-notch credit repair company. My score was boosted to 784, the fact that all negative items, including late payments, evictions, Judgements and traffic citations were expunged still baffles me, they also cleared my credit card debts. All this was done in 14 days. Contact them today and you’ll be glad you did. .reach them via LANXCREDITSOLUTION@GMAIL.COM and or +1 (310) 879 2541. TELL THEM YOU READ MY REVIEW

    ReplyDelete
  101. Almost every human disease has been associated with a virus or other pathogen, usually several. Borna, herpes, and hepatitis for bipolar disorder; protoplasmic, herpes, and borrelia for schizophrenia; enterovirus for diabetes, I am glad that i finally got cured through doctor razor's herbal medicine, I was infected with this awful virus on 17th of February 2016, I have been searching for a permanent cure for this virus until i came across testimonies regarding how doctor razor has been helpful in helping them eradicate the US labelled incurable HERPES VIRUS. I got to Visit his website : https://herbalistrazorherb.wixsite.com/drrazorherbalhome . After Visiting the website i decided to contact him and he promised to help me and after some days of contacting him i received my herbal package from the UPS Sent by doctor Razor From NIGERIA and he instructed me to take the medication for 18 days , few days into the medication i started experiencing health changes, when i finally completed the dosage i went to the hospital and my result came out negative. God bless you endlessly Doctor Razor, I pray God almighty grant you a long life. Contact him on email : drrazorherbalhome@gmail.com Whatsapp/Call him on +2349065420442

    ReplyDelete
  102. I am Forever indebted to Herbalist Razor, I write this article today to tell how Herbalist Razor cured my Herpes virus which i have been battling for several years , ever since i found out that i was HSV positive my life has been in complete jeopardy, i have used so many drugs that was prescribed to me by several medical doctors,but it didn't cure my HSV VIRUS neither did it reduce the pain, i was checking for solution on the internet then miraculously came across Herbalist Razor the powerful herbalist that cure HSV Infection, then i contacted his email, i explained everything to him and he prepared a herbal cure and sent it to me. After using the medication for 18 days i was told to go for a medical checkup by this herbalist and i did, The doctors were astonished as to how on earth i was able to get cured of this virus.. you can Reach him via Email: drrazorherbalhome@gmail.com Or call and add him on whatsapp +2349065420442. Doctor Razor's Website : https://herbalistrazorherb.wixsite.com/drrazorherbalhome

    ReplyDelete
  103. Hello everyone i am FINN WALLACE  from SCOTLAND  but live in the united states of america   i want to tell the whole world of great  Dr Harry herbal mixture i was unhappy ever since my girlfriend back then in college mocked me of having a small penis and weak in bed ,ever since then i have been trying to improve my sex life but all effort failed ..but it got worse when i got married ,my wife is so angry with me and Threatened to leave me if i do not find a way and i love my wife so much so one faithful day i was reading some comments on a blog then i saw a comment of one Mr Tom Sullivan new Orleans testifying of how Dr Harry helped him enlarge his penis and Fertilise his sperm count so i quickly contacted him by his website link https://drharryherbaltempl.wixsite.com/solutiontemple     and he got back to me and i did as he said ..to my greatest surprise i got 10 inches within two weeks of using his herbal medicine and now its just 3 weeks i am having 10.5 inches i am so happy now..my wife told me am so good in bed that i almost killed her last night all thanks to him note he also cure sicknesses and diseases like 
    PENIS ENLARGEMENT
    ERECTILE DYSFUNCTION
    DIABETES type 1 and type 2
    HERPES GENITAL WART
    LOW SPERM COUNT
    WEAK ERECTION
    BREAST ENLARGEMENT
    PROSTRATE CANCER
    HIV/AIDS
    PREMATURE EJACULATION 
    so if you need his help contact him on his email drharrysolution@gmail.com   website link https://drharryherbaltempl.wixsite.com/solutiontemple    or whatsapp him on +2349036417079  thanks            

    ReplyDelete
  104. I just want the whole world to know about this spell caster I met
    two weeks ago, wisdomspiritualtemple@gmail.com I cannot say everything he has done for me my wife
    left me 3 years ago left with my kids I was going through online
    when I meant this wonderful man's testimony online I decided to
    give it a try and my wife is back to me now and we ar1e happily
    married again cause is too much to put in writing all I can say is
    thank you very much am very happy .and does alot of spell
    including Love Spell
    Death Spell
    Money Spell
    Power Spell
    Success Spell
    Sickness Spell
    Pregnancy Spell
    Marriage Spell
    Job Spell
    Protection Spell
    Lottery Spell
    Court Case Spell
    Luck Spell etc. In case you need his help contact him on this email
    address wisdomspiritualtemple@gmail.com he is a good man
    thanks.whatsapp number +234813 648 2342

    ReplyDelete
  105. Email Dr Sambo for real love spell: divinespellhome@gmail.com 
    contact him on his  whatsapp mobile line +2348145810121 You can also visit his website http://drsambo443.website2.me/
    Hello viewers, I living in South Africa , I am very happy to share this amazing testimony, i was hurt and heart broken when my husband left me with our two children, i was confused and didn't know what to do, i loved him so much, i tried all i could to bring him back but to no avail, on one faithfully day as i was coming from work i met a friend of mine whom i explain my problem to, and she told me of a spell caster called "Dr Sambo" whom also make her pregnant when she was looking for a child, i contacted the spell caster through the email she gave to me, and the spell caster told me what to do and i did exactly as i was told,  to my grates surprise, my husband who has not called me for a very long time, called me and start apologizing for all the wrongs he did to me, and now  he loved me more than ever before, brothers and sisters if you are passing through any kind problem contact him and i give you 100% guarantee that he will solve your problems. this is his contacts divinespellhome@gmail.com whatsapp mobile line +2348145810121

    ReplyDelete
  106. Herpes can be cured because it truly has a complete cure. I’m a living witness of it because I recently got rid of my HSV VIRUS within just two weeks. And as i speak right now! I’m perfectly cured from the herpes disease.  There is a cure and it's called herbal medicine. I'm so glad to have come in contact with Herbal doctor Kham who is also known as the two weeks healer of herpes virus. Doctor Kham got me cured completely from my long term genital herpes (HSV VIRUS) with the help of his powerful and effective herbal medication which I took for only two weeks, and I got a good result being cured from the herpes disease. If you are out there diagnosed or suffering from the herpes virus you can reach out to Herbal doctor Kham for help in getting rid of your herpes virus forever just the way he helped me got rid of mine; His email address is dr.khamcaregiver@gmail.com or for his quick response to you, you can reach him on WhatsApp with +2348159922297. The medical industry/Big Pharmacies make huge profits off treatments and modern drugs/medicines that can't even get the herpes virus cured. That's why they don't want you to know the cure. Aaron Traywick had a cure for HIV and herpes and he turned up dead like a week later, even Nipsey Hussell was murdered along with Lisa Left Eye Lopez by the US Government simply because these people were doing a research on how Dr Sebi makes herb for the cure to herpes virus and HIV. The Doctor Sebi in question was also killed by the US Government just because he was having the cure to herpes and HIV. Don't you find that fishy? You can Also Visit his website to know more about him at > https://drkhamherbalhealingcenter.wordpress.com/ or https://drkhamcaregiver.wixsite.com/drkhamcaregiverherba         

    ReplyDelete
  107. The doctors keep saying no cure for herpes and making people believe that there is no cure. I'm herecured to inform everybody that there is a cure. There is a cure for Genital Herpes and I was  from Genital Herpes by Dr Omongbe with his herbal medications. I tested positive for 2019 and ever since then I have been looking for a cure. I was reading about herpes on Youtube and i saw a comment on how Dr Omongbe cure HERPES and HIV with herbs on the comment section, i was surprise and i contact him on the email they provided on the comment and i explain my problem to him and he also prepare the herbs and send it to me which i use for two weeks as i was instructed by Dr Omongbe and after 2weeks i went to the hospital for a blood test and the result was Negative and my doctor confirm with me that am fully cured from genital herpes. I'm so grateful to Dr Omongbe.You can also reach Dr Omongbe on his email: dromongbenaturalremedies@gmail.com or you can text and whatsapp him on +2348050407265  His website https://dromongbenaturalre.wixsite.com/dromongbenaturalreme

    ReplyDelete
  108. DR SALATO HERBAL MEDICINE FOR PENIS ENLARGEMENT drsalatosolutiontemple@gmail.com or visit His website http://drsalatosolutionte0.wixsite.com/drsalato , you can call/whatsapp him via +2348103629945 
    hello everyone here i  am medical doctor from UK but currently in NEW YORK i want to share a great testimony of how Dr SALATO herbal mixture cream saves me from shame and disgrace, my penis was a big problem to me as the size was really so embarrassing and discouraging, a 35 year old grown man like me having 3.5 inches penis and to worsen it i don't last more than 10 minute in bed it was really a thing of shame my wife was really tired of me because my sex life was very very poor , she never enjoyed sex with me, i was always thinking and searching for a solutions everywhere until last one months ago when i saw a testimony of how Dr SALATO herbal mixture cream have been helping people around the globe,i saw one MR TIMOTHY testifying of how Dr SALATO helped him enlarge his penis size from 4 to 8 inches so i decided to give him a try ,i visited his website link https://drsalatosolutionte0.wixsite.com/drsalato we talked and he gave me steps to follow which i did and to my greatest surprise in less than two weeks of taking the herbal mixture cream my penis grow to 7 inches i couldn't believe my eyes and as i speak now my penis is now 9 inches long and i was amazed when my wife said i satisfy her so well in bed now all thanks to Dr SALATO herbal mixture cream,i will forever be grateful To him i also learnt that Dr SALATO also have the herbal cure to problems likePENIS ENLARGEMENTERECTILE DYSFUNCTIONDIABETES type 1 and type 2HERPES GENITAL WARTLOW SPERM COUNTWEAK ERECTIONBREAST ENLARGEMENTPROSTATE CANCERHIV/AIDSSPELL OF ALL KINDS LIKE EX BACK,CANCEL DIVORCE,BREAK UP SPELL ,PREGNANCY SPELL,PROMOTION SPELL,JOB SPELLALSHPV 123PILEASTHMAHEART FAILUREPREMATURE EJACULATIONHEPATITIS A,B,C AND MANY MORE so if you are suffering from any of these problems please do not hesitate to contact him now email drsalatosolutiontemple@gmail.com or visit His website https://drsalatosolutionte0.wixsite.com/drsalato , you can call/whatsapp him via +2348103629945 THANKS

    ReplyDelete
  109. I was cured of HIV with the use of natural herbs. I love herbs so much. Most times, injection and drugs are just a waste of time. I was cured 8 months ago, i suffered from HIV for 5years but with the help of Doctor OKITI medicine, i was cured within few weeks of drinking the herbs he sent to me through courier delivery service. This same doctor also cured my Aunt from herpes, as soon as i heard she had herpes, i quickly introduce her to DR OKITI and she was cured too after drinking his herbs.I have referred more than 11 persons to DR OKITI and they were all cured from their various illness. Have you taken herbs before?. You have spent so much money on drugs, injections, surgeries etc and yet you have no good result to show for it. Contact DR OKITI now, he is a herbal doctor, i assure you of a cure if you drink his natural herbs. DR OKITI has herbs that cures Hiv, Herpes, diabetes, asthma, hepatitis, HBP, STD, cancer etc. Contact @drokiti7 now via Email @drokitiherbalhome100@gmail.comTel/Whatsapp:+2347043240787

    ReplyDelete
  110. (RESTORED MARRIAGE) I PROMISE TO TELL THE WORLD MY TESTIMONY...

    Hello everyone, I am happy to share this Wonderful Testimony to the world... I'm  Victoria Matins and i am from Scotland. My husband and I have been married for 9 years with 3 kids, my husband and I had a little fight because of the way he has been going to nightclubs and keeping late nights and he has been cheating on me with another lady called bella, so because of this he wanted to divorce me and move in with her, i was so afraid to lose him because of our kids and i love him very much so i search online for help and i saw a lot of people's testimonies on how Dr BALBOSA help them and came out with positive results like Divorces, Cancers, lotteries, fertilities and others. So I emailed him and told him my problem and he responded and he told me what to do and I did it as he instructed, 24 hours later he told me he is done with the spell and my husband will no longer divorce me and he will always love me like never before. The next day my husband called me and apologized for all he had done to me and I was so happy to welcome him back to my life..so i decided to share this testimony to the world...I thank Dr BALBOSA for his help... If you are having a similar issue please contact him today for help...his email is: balbosasolutionhome@gmail.com and you can also add him on call and WhatsApp +2347048047728...stay safe from Victoria Martins..

    ReplyDelete
  111. I just want the whole world to know about this spell caster I met
    two weeks ago, wisdomspiritualtemple@gmail.com I cannot say everything he has done for me my wife
    left me 3 years ago left with my kids I was going through online
    when I meant this wonderful man's testimony online I decided to
    give it a try and my wife is back to me now and we ar1e happily
    married again cause is too much to put in writing all I can say is
    thank you very much am very happy .and does alot of spell
    including Love Spell
    Death Spell
    Money Spell
    Power Spell
    Success Spell
    Sickness Spell
    Pregnancy Spell
    Marriage Spell
    Job Spell
    Protection Spell
    Lottery Spell
    Court Case Spell
    Luck Spell etc. In case you need his help contact him on this email
    address wisdomspiritualtemple@gmail.com he is a good man
    thanks.whatsapp number +234813 648 2342

    ReplyDelete