I thought it would be worth penning a few further thoughts on the current Russo-Ukrainian situation, as my thoughts have evolved somewhat in recent days, coincident with recent events which are changing rapidly. While the situation in the Donbass has now been (somewhat) resolved - though the potential for disputes about the resultant borders remain a potential source of near term conflict - the longer term issues have not yet been resolved, and indeed there is a growing risk of an escalation into an all out Russo-NATO hot war. These issues may or may not lead to a major short term escalation extending up to the point of a nationwide Ukrainian invasion, but irrespective of that, they will continue to linger and lead to potentially longer term escalation and conflict. Given the graveness of the situation, it believe it is important the issues are properly understood. (please read footnote)*
Sunday, 30 January 2022
This will not be a long blog article, as I only wish to make one simple point, and doing so does not require a long exposition. However, I believe the point to be of absolutely vital importance, and is too frequently overlooked in today's tortured political discourse and latest skirmish de jour. And its import extends well beyond the proximate instantiation at hand.
Friday, 28 January 2022
In recent months, Russia has once again been in the headlines for all the wrong reasons, with the US and Western media loudly proclaiming (since November) that Russia is planning an imminent invasion of the Ukraine, though Russia has repeatedly denied that fact and it's not exactly clear what Russia is waiting for, or what advantage it could expect to derive from lying about its intentions at this point (the whole Western world expects an invasion and the US has pulled embassy staff from Kiev).
Thursday, 20 January 2022
In this post, I thought I'd kick off the new year with some minor sacrilege, by taking slight issue with some of Ben Graham's most-quoted ideas. Ben Graham very famously asserted that "in the short run, the stock market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine". However, when subsequently asked what the specific mechanism was by which stocks were, in time, pushed towards their fair, weighted value, Graham was unable to specify one (though a quick Google for the specific quote did not yield a source I can supply here).1 He also advocated for the disposition of positions after a specified holding period, should the said appropriate re-weighting fail to transpire (2-3 years from memory).2 As I will discuss, this is not a policy/framework I agree with.