Tuesday, 28 July 2020

Market inefficiency, liquidity flywheels, asset class arbitrage, and Hong Kong Land

Conventional economic theory holds that the marketplace in financial assets ought to be 'efficient'. Large numbers of intelligent and diligent investors have access to largely the same pool of information, and are highly motivated to root out and exploit any underpricings that exist. It is believed this competitive process will inevitably drive assets to their fair value - i.e. those that accurately reflect their risk and reward characteristics, and also price assets correctly relative to one another.

If only the world were so simple. While this theory is seductive in its simplicity, it is also wrong in its simplicity. While much has been written about the role fear, greed, and various cognitive biases play in mispricings (also important), often overlooked or underestimated is the role structural institutional market factors play, which encapsulate traditional economic ideas of agency conflicts and information asymmetry. What is little understood - and I hope to argue in this article - is that market inefficiency is structural and behavioural, rather than informational, which is why I believe it will always exist, and provide ample opportunity for the well-heeled.

The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) misses one very important point - the majority of security/asset-level investment decisions are not made by the ultimate owners of capital, but instead via their appointed intermediaries - whether they be traditional active asset managers, or passive vehicles (which mechanically buy stocks in proportion to their index representation). The EMH implicitly assumes end investors are making direct purchases of individual securities; are fully informed about the idiosyncratic risk and reward characteristics of those individual securities; and are investing with time horizons that accord with the underlying duration of the cash flows of the assets they purchase.

However, in reality, most ultimate owners of capital are not making direct purchases of securities; are less than perfectly informed about the risk and reward characteristics of the underlying assets in the portfolio (only the realised returns and volatility outcomes from month-to-month); and are often investing with time horizons considerably shorter than the duration of the underlying assets - particularly for stocks (where durations average 50 years, compared to the typical time horizon of most investors, which is perhaps 3-5 years at most).

Ultimate owners of capital, or their direct appointed representatives (advisors or asset allocators), are at least one-step removed from grass roots individual security selection. Instead, they are more concerned with higher-level asset allocation decisions, which are influenced by perceptions of risk, reward, growth potential, and volatility associated with aggregated asset classes, which may be radically disconnected from the actual risk/reward characteristics of the individual securities comprising these larger clusters. They also often react procyclically to realised return and volatility outcomes, exiting assets classes that have exhibited poor returns and/or high volatility, and increasing allocations to assets that have performed well - particularly with limited downside volatility.

This has significant consequences for the way assets are priced, and at a system level, can result in truly massive levels of market inefficiency,* and this inefficiency can also be highly persistent, because the arbitrage forces that are supposed to correct mispricings are not only relatively ineffective in the short term, but frequently overwhelmed by structural flows-based feedback loops that have a tendency to amplify rather than moderate these inefficiencies.

More pointedly, markets have a structural tendency towards the emergence of what I describe as 'liquidity flywheels', which in my view is the largest and most under-appreciated contributor to market inefficiency ('liquidity' here is defined as 'liquid capital' that is available to be invested into various financial or real assets). Liquidity flywheels are discussed in the section immediately below. Later, I discuss how the distortionary impact of institutional asset allocation practices can lead to the same underlying assets being valued at very different levels with very different costs of capital, and use Hong Kong Land as an example.


Liquidity flywheels

What is a liquidity flywheel? A liquidity flywheel is a situation where inflows into an asset class lead to buying pressure that pushes up prices, leading to favourable apparent return and volatility characteristics in the said asset class. This favourable outcome then attracts yet more inflows, leading to yet more buying, etc. Conversely, poorly performing asset classes with significant downside volatility can lead to investor redemptions, leading to forced selling that contributes to yet further price declines, yielding even worse returns and even greater redemptions, and so on. This process can go on for years, and sometimes even for decades, and is a fundamental contributor - perhaps the most important contributor - to both major asset-class bubbles, as well as asset price busts and secular lows that lead to fire sales prices (which are 'anti-bubbles' driven by the same drivers of bubbles in reverse). The disconnect between the ultimate owner of funds and the at-the-coal-face investors actually engaged in individual security analysis is fundamental to this process, because end investors have little to go on other than realised investment returns and volatility, and it introduces both information asymmetries and agency conflicts that can drive radical market inefficiency.

An 'asset class' here can relate to a broad category such as 'venture capital' or 'equities', or (more commonly for equities), various classes of equities divided by geography, market cap range, style, sector, or factor. Industries or countries enjoying and/or expected to enjoy rapid growth, which are perceived as offering significant opportunities, are the frequent locus of inward liquidity flywheels, as people crowd into a theme to get 'exposure' to growth opportunities, and the price increases such flows engender have a tendency to be seen as validating the narrative, which acts to trigger yet more inflows.

A perfect example of a liquidity flywheel is what happened with WeWork, which saw its valuation get bid up to an astonishing height of US$47bn, even though the company was ultimately worthless, with little to show for years of operating losses other than the accumulation of billions of dollars of long term lease liabilities. It occurred because a seductive growth and new-economy disruption narrative, spearheaded by Masayoshi Son, resulted in the Vision Fund and other Venture Capital funds attracting large inflows, and the rush to put those funds to work drove the valuations of companies like WeWork sharply higher. That resulted in higher mark-to-market returns in the said VC funds, which lead to greater investor demand to pour money into VC funds to cash in on the boom. This lead to yet more money pushing valuations even higher.

The process also works in reverse for asset classes that get cheaper and cheaper over time. In theoretical EMH academic models, investors have access to unlimited capital, and if they spot a mispricing, they will buy undervalued assets, borrowing capital when needed frictionlessly at the 'risk free rate' to facilitate this process. However, in the real world, investors' buying and selling behaviour is constrained by the amount of capital they have at their disposal - both with respect to having too little cash, and too much - and their capacity to borrow is also constrained. Indeed, investors that borrow in size to buy cheap stocks are apt to be margined out and forced to liquidate their holdings - particularly because margin requirements are often increased by brokers as prices fall.

A fund manager might have a huge number of very cheap stocks they would love to buy, but if they do not have any available cash, they do not get to 'vote' on the market price by buying in the open market, as they lack the liquidity to do so - in the short term at least (longer term, you can reinvest dividends). Furthermore, if the said manager is suffering investor redemptions due to recent returns being poor, then regardless of the underlying managers' views on the long term attractiveness of individual securities, they will be forced to sell. It is therefore not uncommon for those most informed about the opportunities in undervalued securities to be actually selling them rather than buying, in direct contradiction to the EMH.

The opposite is also true for fund managers receiving large inflows - they must buy regardless of their personal views on the valuation appeal of stocks within their purview. It is perfectly possible they believe the stocks to be overvalued and yet still buy them in size, because they have to. Many fund managers are explicitly constrained in how much cash they can hold by their fund charter, but even for those managers that are not so explicitly constrained, if the said manager elects to hold a large amount of cash hoping for a better opportunity to buy, and markets continue to rise, they risk potentially catastrophic levels of underperformance, and so is a luxury they can ill-afford.

If the said manager runs a technology fund, their clients allocated them money because from an asset allocation standpoint, they decided they wanted exposure to the technology sector. If six months later the tech sector is up 50% and this individual fund is only up 10% because they are holding cash waiting for a better opportunity, the end clients are not going to be very happy, and in all likelihood will ask for their money back, so they can give it to a better-performing tech fund manager who is up 60%. As a result, institutions will also tend to buy regardless of price, and at the very least hold large index weight stocks in proportion to their index representation, to avoid the risk of underperforming.

What is notable about this process is how little all this buying and selling, and all the pronounced volatility in asset prices in drives (including major secular bull and bear markets), has anything at all to do with rational 'price discovery' in the traditional EMH sense. It explains why markets can be populated by highly intelligent, informed, and hardworking people, and also be grossly inefficient and absurdly volatile. Liquidity flywheels can go on for many many years, and are a frequent cause of long periods of underperformance for value managers, because it is the effect of liquidity flywheels that cause stocks to become undervalued in the first place, and there is no reason to expect a liquidity flywheel to suddenly reverse just because certain stocks have already become cheap. 

Much has been said about the dreadful performance of value over the past decade, and in particular the last few years, and while there are many causes for this (a topic for another blog post), what is most missing from the dialogue is a recognition of the fact that this is not unusual, and long stretches of value underperformance have happened many times before, and for largely the same reasons. It happened in the 1990s tech bubble, and it also happened in the 1960-early 1970s 'Nifty 50' bubble as well. Including the most recent tech/growth bubble, that is about once every 20 years. The major cause in all these cases was a liquidity flywheel that lead to certain parts of the market becoming extremely overpriced, due to a decade of procyclical inflows that drove multiples to the stratosphere.

The fundamental issue is that the ultimate owners of capital, or their immediate representatives (advisors and asset allocators), often make their asset allocation decisions on the basis of backward-looking return and volatility realisations, as without direct knowledge of the underlying securities, that is all they have to go on. And the important thing is that this process is inherently self-sustaining, not self-correcting, such that inefficiencies tend to get larger over time, not smaller (until an inflection point is reached, following which very dramatic reversals can happen), and the ability of investors to arbitrage these inefficiencies is largely absent.

Liquidity flywheels are one of the most important forces in markets, and one of the most under-appreciated. They are also the fundamental reason why momentum strategies work (until they don't) - something that the EMH also declared to be impossible, and yet which quantitative analysis of past market action clearly refutes. So long as there are liquidity flywheels in markets, momentum will be a strategy that works, provided one has a reliable means by which to determine when momentum has turned, because when momentum reversals happen, they happen big and fast.


Different prices and costs of capital for the same asset

Another important consequence of these institutional forces is that radically different costs of capital (and hence asset valuations) can emerge for the very same assets, depending on how they are packaged, and the differences are often not trivial. If the EMH held, the same assets should be priced in the same way, regardless of how they are packaged (they are, after all, the same assets), but in the real world, we often see very considerable difference emerge, and those differences can often go years, or even decades, without being arbitraged away.

Consider for instance a stock like Hong Kong Land (HKL SP). HKL has a market capitalisation of about US$9bn, and yet holds about US$37bn of real estate at its most recently appraised market value (end of calendar 2019). A meaningful proportion of HKL's real estate is super prime office buildings in Singapore and HK, such as the Marina Bay Financial Center in Singapore, and Exchange Square in Hong Kong. These are amongst the most desirable prime locations in HK and Singapore, and as a result almost always enjoy close to 100% occupancy and favourable ongoing rent revisions. The company has only very modest levels of debt (US$3bn), so high leverage is not the cause of the disconnect, and this modest level of debt is offset by the value of various development projects they hold, which are of a slightly larger magnitude to the company's debt burden. Assuming the latter two net, the stock is therefore trading at about 25c in the dollar of its unleveraged real estate holdings.

Now to be sure, it is possible that recent events - not just covid-19, but recent political developments in HK - have increased the risk of long term value erosion, should HK for e.g. lose its station as a desirable offshore financial center. However, this very large gap between HKL's stock market valuation, and the private market valuation of its assets, has persisted for a long time, and well before these recent developments. The stock is down some 50% from its 2017 highs, but even at its recent peaks, the stock was still trading at 50c in the dollar of the open market value of its prime real estate assets.

So why are the same assets attracting 2-3x fold differences in prices? It has a lot to do simply with the way the assets are packaged from an asset class standpoint, and the different costs of capital that apply to different investor constituencies and asset classes. HKL's super-prime real estate assets are valued on the books (and in the real world) at cap rates as low as 3% (and often closer to 2% net of costs and tax). In a world with zero interest rates, this is not an unrealistically low yield for super-prime assets with favourable trends in rent revisions, A-grade tenants, long lease terms, and an income stream that is inflation protected. Even a modest pace of 2% annual rental growth (below historical averages) would generate all-in after-tax returns of some 4%, which with inflation protection, is very attractive relative to bonds and other high-grade debt.

However, the issue is that active equity managers - who are the natural buyers of HKL stock - are not benchmarked against cash and high-grade bond returns, or even high-grade real estate. HKL, as a listed company, is part of the "listed equities" bucket (and more specifically, the "Asia ex-Japan listed equities" bucket), and the performance of the institutions that purchase HKL are therefore benchmarked against equity market indices, rather than cash or bonds. The average stock in Singapore and HK is currently priced (in my estimation) with an expected return of perhaps 10%, which is another way of saying the cost of (listed) equity in these regions is currently about 10%. If equity managers were to buy HKL and realise only a 4% return (which they likely would if the stock was priced at 1x book), but the index was to generate 10% pa, it would be of little benefit to the fund manager to argue to their clients that the returns are low risk and quite attractive relative to fixed income. The clients would say, we allocated you money to get "equities exposure", and you're only up 4% and the market is up 10%, and that is not satisfactory performance. Because HKL is part of the "listed equities" bucket, it is expected to deliver "listed equities" returns of 10%.

Consequently, listed on public markets, the assets that underlie HKL are priced with a cost of capital reflective of Singaporean and HK equities in general, which is a cost of capital that bears no relation to the cost of capital private buyers of prime A-grade real estate are subject to. Because HKL's underlying assets generate only perhaps 4%, this requires the stock trade at about one third of book value (ignoring recent declines which are covid/HK related). Another way to think about this would be to imagine a company that owned only 30-yr treasuries yielding (say) 3%. If the stock traded at 0.3x book, it would offer a return of 10% instead of 3%. The underlying assets and cash flow stream are the same, but the costs of capital are different (here, 3% for long bonds, 10% for equities).

The cost of capital for listed equities is higher because equities are volatile, and in general, the cash flows of businesses (averaged across all types) are much less dependable than those of real estate. The problem is that from a fundamental/operational perspective, stocks are not "more risky" by definition, because it very much depends on what type of assets the company holds. Individual companies can range from the most speculative, risky biotech startups or resource exploration company, to holders of some of the lowest risk, most dependable cash-generating assets in the world (A-grade real estate, franchised incumbent businesses with huge moats and steady cash flow streams). In this respect, the very idea that "stocks" in general are an "asset class" is deeply flawed - they are an aggregation of individual businesses with hugely variant risk profiles. However, in the world of industrial scale asset allocation, stock-level differences are typically lost in translation when large scale asset allocation decisions are made between 'listed equities', 'fixed income', 'alternatives', 'developed market equity vs. emerging market equity', etc, and then results are assessed against an overall equity benchmark.

The ultimate effect of this is that the cost of capital that is applied to assets can come to reflect less the idiosyncratic nature of the underlying assets, and more simply the asset class packaging. Put long bonds or high-grade real estate into a company and then list that company on the stock market, and suddenly the same underlying bonds or real estate are transformed into a "listed equity", and because a higher "listed equity" cost of capital is then applied to those assets, the entity will trade at a steep discount. Change the packaging, and suddenly you see the same assets trade at radically different prices.

Repackaging listed real estate into a REIT vehicle (Real Estate Investment Trust) can sometimes bridge this gap. There are funds that can invest in REITs and benchmark their returns to the overall performance of REITs, and/or other yield-based strategies/assets ('yield alternatives'). This can lower the cost of capital by changing the benchmark for comparison from stocks in general, to fixed income or a specific class of yield stocks. It is for this reason that companies like HKL will sometimes spin off real estate holdings into REITs to 'unlock value'. In an efficient market, there ought to be no such opportunity to 'unlock value', but in the real world where institutional realities can create large differences in the cost of capital for the same assets, the opportunity is very real.

But let's go further. Let's suppose HKL's yield assets were instead packaged into an unlisted/illiquid "alternatives" asset class manufactured by a private equity sponsor, which marketed the vehicle as a low-risk yield product that aimed to generate a superior yield to those available on bonds/fixed income. The assets could also be leveraged up to juice returns and increase the manufactured yield from 2-4% unlevered to perhaps 4-6% levered. The 4-6% yield could then be marketed to institutional investors and asset allocators looking for replacements for their miserly bond yields. When the basis for comparison becomes long bonds at 1%, rather than equity benchmarks, suddenly 4% looks good. The result? A 4% cost of capital is used instead of 10%, and the same assets are valued at radically different prices, depending on the packaging.

The reason this alchemy can work is that there is an institutionalised aversion to volatility. Volatility is not just uncomfortable, but it is a career/reputation risk to whoever decided to make such an asset allocation decision - i.e. a financial advisor, or asset allocator with fiduciary responsibilities. If somebody puts capital into HKL stock and the stock falls 20%, that looks bad. It looks like a 20% loss, even if the underlying assets are still generating the same cash flows as before, and the dividend yield of the stock has merely risen. This is where the duration mismatch issue rears its head - if one buys and holds HKL for 50 years, temporary share price volatility won't make a shred of long term difference - in fact share price declines will be positive, as dividends can be reinvested at a higher yield. However, in reality, the duration of the career interests of advisors and asset allocators is much shorter than that - they are concerned with how returns fare over the the next few quarters and years, how that looks to clients, and how that is likely to influence their compensation.

Consequently, the minimization of volatility/drawdown risk is highly prized, and by keeping the assets 'private', these "alternative" vehicles can provide investors with the comfortable and expedient illusion of a lack of volatility. HKL's stock price, for instance, has fallen some 50% in the past 3 years, as the market has repriced its assets from an expected return of perhaps 6% to 10%. The company's dividend has remained stable, with the stock's yield increasing from 3% to 6%. By keeping the assets private, however, you can report the underlying cash flow returns of 2-4% (leveraged up to 4-6%), and claim that the value of your assets has not changed. After all, the private market value of the assets has not fallen (it has not for HKL either). The end results is an attractive yield for clients of 4-5%, without having to bear the risk of explicit volatility/drawdowns.

The desire to avoid looking bad by suffering such a drawdown is what is driving a huge wave of money into private equity and other "alternative" vehicles, which are often just a repackaging of assets you can buy on stock markets, with higher leverage and much higher valuations, but with the ability to spare clients of the appearance of volatility/drawdowns. The cost of capital with this newfangled packaging is structurally lower because returns are not benchmarked against listed equities, but instead cash and bond yields, and other low risk yield alternatives. Because interest rates and bond yields are so low, 4% returns appear quite attractive (vs. say 1%). Investors are happy. They allocate more capital, because 4% beats their 1% cost of capital. Again, it is important to emphasise that these are exactly the same assets, just with different packaging, and the packaging can change the cost of capital dramatically. This is a very clear refutation of the EMH.

There are some arbitrage forces in markets that can help correct these differences, but they are highly imperfect. If HKL were smart, for instance, they would take advantage of the large arbitrage opportunity that exists between the private and public market costs of capital by selling some of their real estate assets and using the proceeds to buy back stock. Activist investors and corporate take-outs can play a role, but in HKL's case, it already has a controlling shareholder (Jardine Matheson), which forecloses the opportunity for activism.


Conclusion

It is important to understand that market inefficiency is structural and behavioural, not informational. Many investors attempt to invest on the basis that market inefficiency is informational in nature, and dedicate tremendous amount of time and resource to trying to come up with better information than the next guy. However, in today's markets, the primary source of inefficiency is structural/agency driven, and the way to exploit that is not to acquire better information, but to have a structure that allows one to engage in long term value arbitrage that other investors cannot (often taking the form of buying underlying assets that are actually low risk, but are priced as if they were very high risk because they are part of an asset class that is generally perceived to be high risk). This requires a wide and unconstrained mandate (by geography, asset class, etc), long term capital, a rigorously long term approach, and an extreme tolerance for volatility and benchmark variation, which requires patience and emotional fortitude that is sorely lacking in today's instant gratification world.

Outperforming in the long term is actually not very difficult, but it requires highly lumpy results, often marked by long periods of lackluster returns, punctuated by short periods of spectacular results, which happen alongside liquidity flywheel/momentum reversals, which are inflection points that do not happen very often. Furthermore, usually, the worse value is performing, the closer one is to the end of a liquidity flywheel bubble cycle (value had a woeful time in 1999, for instance), because value is the 'anti-bubble' expression - a Newtonian equal and opposite reaction - of liquidity flywheels driving bubbles elsewhere in markets. It is redemption flywheels that drive value opportunities, and redemption flywheels are often the result of investors pulling money out of unpopular areas of the market in a rush to get exposure to hot areas of markets.

Taking advantage of long term opportunities is extremely difficult for investors with the wrong structure and wrong investors, however, as massive redemptions will likely happen right when opportunities are most ripe, and not all funds will be able to survive the inevitable lean periods. Value funds shut down en mass in 1999, for instance, and the same thing has been happening of late. Lean cost structures and - ideally - large principal FUM participation from the fund managers is a must.

Outperforming in the short term with consistency, by contrast, is extremely hard. The best way to do it is usually a momentum strategy, which works most of the time, but occasionally yields disastrous results on sudden momentum reversals. Momentum is the polar opposite of value - it generates good returns most of the time, and disastrous returns a minority of the time.

The latter strategy is a more remunerative strategy for fund managers, however, even if it often leaves long term investors worse off, which is why it is more popular/common. While the good times roll, large performance fees are banked, and it is investors that are left with the losses when it all turns to custard. This is why value investing remains relatively uncommon, despite its long track record of success, and in my view a combination of agency conflicts, information asymmetry, volatility-phobia, and the desire for quick results, will all but ensure market inefficiencies continue, and considerable opportunities for long term value investors will remain for many generations to come.



LT3000


Disclosure: I do not own shares in HKL


*In my perception, a lot of investors confuse rising prices with increased market efficiency. Prices becoming more expensive, in general, has nothing to do with efficiency, even though it does have the practical effect of making value opportunities harder to come by. People also confuse the fact that value doesn't work in the short term - often for many years - with market efficiency. It is not the efficiency that makes it hard to outperform in the short term, but the inefficiency - prices are driven by flows, not fundamentals, often for many years, and so even very diligent and accurate valuation work can often not be rewarded by markets for years, leading to an erroneous perception of market efficiency.


Postscript: Just as this note was going to press, I noticed that HSKE-listed Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) - a company I blogged about in 2018 here - was trading up as much as 30% as the company announced it was planning an A-share listing on the frothy ChiNext exchange. A broker report noted (in an understated comment to say the least): "ChiNext-listed stocks are trading at high valuations (57x trailing 12-month PE average as of 27 July...), which should boost the valuation of Dongfeng's H-shares (trading at 2.8x FY20E PE)."

I cannot think of a better demonstration of many of the points raised in this article - different costs of capital for the same assets in different markets, and the effect of long term liquidity flywheel cycles. Positive liquidity flywheels have driven A-share valuations to extremes of 50-100x P/Es, and negative liquidity flywheel cycles have driven certain H-shares to as low as 2-3x. Dongfeng and H-shares generally (excepting the tech sector) are now 13 years into a liquidity flywheel downcycle, which started in 2007. Since my blog post, Dongfeng has continued to post strong operational results, earnings growth, and increased dividends. The stock has fallen from HK$9 to HK$5.


669 comments:

  1. Love this deep analysis, with two independent points supporting the thesis of structural EMH violations.

    (1) Liquidity flywheels make the market inefficient from a long-term value perspective, because shorter-term momentum dynamics exist for structural reasons decoupled from underlying asset values

    (2) The cost of capital in various assets is determined by a coarse-grained bucketing into leaky abstractions like “listed equities”, and there aren’t many participants capable of arbitraging when the specifics of an asset defy their category bucket, due to structural forces of short time horizons and fund management principal-agent problems

    I’m not familiar with the investment world. Are these insights known within some subcommunity?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks Liron. Spot on. You said in two paragraphs what it took me a whole post to explain - well done.

      These views derive from my own thinking and observation, but I'm sure there are many other investors out there that have independently reached similar conclusions as well.

      Cheers,
      LT

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      I have been suffering from Herpes for the past 3 years and 8 months, and ever since then i have been taking series of treatment but there was no improvement until i came across testimonies of Dr Sayo on how he has been curing different people from different diseases all over the world, then i contacted him as well. After our conversation he sent me the medicine which i took according to his instructions. When i was done taking the herbal medicine i went for a medical checkup and to my greatest surprise i was cured from Herpes. My heart is so filled with joy. If you are suffering from Herpes or any other disease you can contact Dr Sayo today on this Email address: (sayoherbalhealer@gmail.com) or WhatsApp him on this Number +2349012175679 Visit his FB page: https://www.facebook.com/Sayo-Herbal-Healer-100145798345000/    also visit website: http://sayoherbalhealinghome.com/ or check blogs: https://naturerootandherbscures.blogspot.com/



      Delete
    8. I was cured of CANCER with the used of natural herbs. My name is celina jolly and am from US. I love herbs so much. Most times, injection and drugs are just a waste of time. I was cured 8 months ago, i suffered from CANCER for 3 yrs but with the help of Dr.Sayo herbal medicine, i was cured within few weeks of drinking the herbs he sent to me through courier delivery service. This same doctor also cured my Aunty from FIBROID, as soon as i heard she had FIBROID, i quickly refer her to Dr.Sayo and she was cured too after drinking his herbs.I have referred more than 15 persons to Dr.Sayo and they were all cured from their various illness. Have you taken herbs before?. You have spent so much money on drugs,injections,surgeries etc and yet you have no good result to show for it. Contact Dr. Sayo now, he is a herbalist doctor, i assured you of a cure if you drink his natural herbs. Dr.Sayo have herbs that cures Hiv, Herpes, diabetics, asthma, hepatitis, HBP, STD, cancer, chronic, etc. Contact Dr Sayo through his Email address on: sayoherbalhealer@gmail.com or WHATSAPP/CALL him on+2349012175679 Visit his FB page: https://www.facebook.com/Sayo-Herbal-Healer-100145798345000/    
      also visit website: http://sayoherbalhealinghome.com/ or check blogs: https://naturerootandherbscures.blogspot.com/ Please share the good news to other people once you are cured  

      Delete
    9. hello everyone here i am Martin Lawrence  a Hotel manager in Miami  , i want to share a great testimony of how Dr HARRY  herbal mixture cream saves me from shame and disgrace, my penis size was a big problem to me as the size was really so embarrassing and discouraging, a 39 year old full grown man like me having 4 inches penis and to worsen it i don't last in sex i cant even last two minutes it was really a thing of shame my wife was really tired of me because my sex life was very poor , she never enjoyed sex, i was always thinking and searching for solutions everywhere until last two months when i saw a testimony of how Dr HARRY  herbal mixture cream have been helping people from the globe,i saw one MR PAUL KEWAH  testifying of how Dr HARRY helped him enlarge his penis size so i decided to give him a try ,i visited his website link  https://drharryherbaltempl.wixsite.com/solutiontemple    we talked and he gave me steps to follow which i did and to my greatest surprise in less than two weeks of taking the herbal mixture cream my penis grow to 8 inches i couldn't believe my eyes and as i speak now my penis is now 10.5 inches long and i was amazed when my wife said i satisfy her so well now all thanks to Dr HARRY  herbal mixture cream,i will forever be grateful To him i also learnt that Dr HARRY also have the herbal cure to problems like
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      Delete
    10. TESTIMONY OF HOW I GOT CURED FROM (HERPES SIMPLEX VIRUS) BY THE GREAT HEALER DOCTOR EHBOS
      Hello everyone I am here to testify of the great work Dr Ehbos did in my life with the help of his herbal traditional medicine. I have been suffering from Herpes since 2015 and ever since then I have been looking for solutions on how to cure it. I have being to different hospitals but I discovered none of them was working out for me that I was just wasting money. So I decided to live everything to God, then I was taking my medications to sustain my life and reduce the pains. So on this particular Sunday morning after coming back from service I sat down and begin to ask myself questions, then my phone rang behold it was my sister calling which I answered the call and she started telling me that a friend of hers who has been suffering from same herpes has just been cured by Dr Ehbos the herbal medicine man. Then I was over whelmed, even though I was a little bit confused so she encourage me to also give Dr Ehbos a trial and see for myself then I told her to help me get his contact and forward them to me, So immediately she got the contact of Dr Ehbos and send them to me, immediately I contacted Dr Ehbos and he told me everything I needed to do to enable me get the herbs for my medications and immediately i did that which he instructed me to do without wasting anytime. And here I am today sound and healthy without any symptoms of herpes or any sickness in my body system. And he also told me that there is no sickness on this planet earth that doesn’t have a cure that with the help of herbs he can cure any sickness or disease you can ever think off. So if you are suffering from HERPES or any other sickness or disease and you need a cure you can also contact Dr Ehbos with this Email Address at drehbos@gmail.com or add him on whatsapp +2348133505254 so you can also receive your healing and share your testimony

      Delete
    11. Hello, I am Theresa Williams After being in relationship with Anderson for years, he broke up with me, I did everything possible to bring him back but all was in vain, I wanted him back so much because of the love I have for him, I begged him with everything, I made promises but he refused. I explained my problem to my friend and she suggested that I should rather contact a spell caster that could help me cast a spell to bring him back but I am the type that never believed in spell, I had no choice than to try it, I mailed the spell caster, and he told me there was no problem that everything will be okay before three days, that my ex will return to me before three days, he cast the spell and surprisingly in the second day, it was around 4pm. My ex called me, I was so surprised, I answered the call and all he said was that he was so sorry for everything that happened that he wanted me to return to him, that he loves me so much. I was so happy and went to him. That was how we started living together happily again. Since then, I have made a promise that anybody I know that has a relationship problem, I would be of help to such a person by referring him or her to the only real and powerful spell caster who helped me with my own problem. His email: {drogunduspellcaster@gmail.com} you can email him if you need his assistance in your relationship or any other Case.
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    12. BEST  LOVE SPELL CASTER TO GET YOUR EX LOVER, HUSBAND, WIFE, GIRLFRIEND OR BOYFRIEND BACK. ADD HIM UP ON WHATSAPP:  +2348124644470  

      I am very happy today with my family. My name is Joann Vera from the USA . I am 34 years old. My husband left me for good 1 years now, and i love him so much, i have been looking for a way to get him back since then. i have tried many options but he did not come back, until i met a friend that darted me to PRIEST WISDOM  a powerful spell caster, who helped me to bring back my husband after 2 days. Me and my husband are living happily together today, That man is great, you can contact him via email supernaturalspell1@gmail.com … Now i will advise any serious persons that found themselves in this kind of problem to contact him now for fast solution without stress.. He is always there to help you , now i call him my father.contact him now he is always online or email (supernaturalspell@yahoo.com  ) or contact him on his WhatsApp mobile line +2348124644470 
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      BEST  LOVE SPELL CASTER TO GET YOUR EX LOVER, HUSBAND, WIFE, GIRLFRIEND OR BOYFRIEND BACK. ADD HIM UP ON WHATSAPP:  +2348124644470  

      I am very happy today with my family. My name is Joann Vera from the USA . I am 34 years old. My husband left me for good 1 years now, and i love him so much, i have been looking for a way to get him back since then. i have tried many options but he did not come back, until i met a friend that darted me to PRIEST WISDOM  a powerful spell caster, who helped me to bring back my husband after 2 days. Me and my husband are living happily together today, That man is great, you can contact him via email supernaturalspell1@gmail.com … Now i will advise any serious persons that found themselves in this kind of problem to contact him now for fast solution without stress.. He is always there to help you , now i call him my father.contact him now he is always online or email (supernaturalspell@yahoo.com  ) or contact him on his WhatsApp mobile line +2348124644470 
      MORE INFO @  https://supernaturalspell21.blogspot.com/ 


      ......

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    13. Hello my name is Sally my fiance broke up with me last week i was so sad I changed completely, I wasn't eating and i wasn't talking to anybody, I cried a lot,I was so depressed and stressed out that I was scared I'm going to end up in the hospital because of all the stress and depression until one day i search online on getting love tips because I Love & care about him deeply and I just want us to be together as a couple again and I want us to last forever then i found a powerful spell caster Called Priest Ade that he solved so many relationship problem then Priest Ade told me he will come back to me between 24hrs after he cast spell on him never believe it until my finance called me on the phone and told me he want us to come back and live happily together forever , Am so happy now that Priest Ade help me bring my finance back to me. Thanks so much Priest Ade  he can also help you Email him at 
      ancientspiritspellcast@yahoo.com or ancientspiritspellcast@gmail.com 
      Blog: https://priestade.blogspot.com
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      Hello my name is Sally my fiance broke up with me last week i was so sad I changed completely, I wasn't eating and i wasn't talking to anybody, I cried a lot,I was so depressed and stressed out that I was scared I'm going to end up in the hospital because of all the stress and depression until one day i search online on getting love tips because I Love & care about him deeply and I just want us to be together as a couple again and I want us to last forever then i found a powerful spell caster Called Priest Ade that he solved so many relationship problem then Priest Ade told me he will come back to me between 24hrs after he cast spell on him never believe it until my finance called me on the phone and told me he want us to come back and live happily together forever , Am so happy now that Priest Ade help me bring my finance back to me. Thanks so much Priest Ade  he can also help you Email him at 
      ancientspiritspellcast@yahoo.com or ancientspiritspellcast@gmail.com 
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      Hello my name is Sally my fiance broke up with me last week i was so sad I changed completely, I wasn't eating and i wasn't talking to anybody, I cried a lot,I was so depressed and stressed out that I was scared I'm going to end up in the hospital because of all the stress and depression until one day i search online on getting love tips because I Love & care about him deeply and I just want us to be together as a couple again and I want us to last forever then i found a powerful spell caster Called Priest Ade that he solved so many relationship problem then Priest Ade told me he will come back to me between 24hrs after he cast spell on him never believe it until my finance called me on the phone and told me he want us to come back and live happily together forever , Am so happy now that Priest Ade help me bring my finance back to me. Thanks so much Priest Ade  he can also help you Email him at 
      ancientspiritspellcast@yahoo.com or ancientspiritspellcast@gmail.com 
      Blog: https://priestade.blogspot.com
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      Delete


    14. When I found PRIEST WISDOM I was in desperate need of bringing my ex lover back. He left me for another woman. It happened so fast and I had no say in the situation at all. He just dumped me after 3 years with no explanation. I contacted PRIEST WISDOM  and He told me  what I need to do before he can help me and I did what he told me to, after I provided what he wanted, he cast a love spell to help us get back together. Shortly after he did his spell, my boyfriend started texting me again and felt horrible for what he just put me through. He said that I was the most important person in his life and he knows that now. We moved in together and he was more open to me than before and he started spending more time with me than before. Ever since PRIEST WISDOM helped me, my partner is very stable, faithful and closer to me than before. I highly recommend PRIEST WISDOM to anyone in need of help. Email: Supernaturalspell1@gmail.com . Call him or add him on whatsapp via: +2348124644470 PRIEST WISDOM BLOG PAGE: https://supernaturalspell21.blogspot.com/      










      When I found PRIEST WISDOM I was in desperate need of bringing my ex lover back. He left me for another woman. It happened so fast and I had no say in the situation at all. He just dumped me after 3 years with no explanation. I contacted PRIEST WISDOM  and He told me  what I need to do before he can help me and I did what he told me to, after I provided what he wanted, he cast a love spell to help us get back together. Shortly after he did his spell, my boyfriend started texting me again and felt horrible for what he just put me through. He said that I was the most important person in his life and he knows that now. We moved in together and he was more open to me than before and he started spending more time with me than before. Ever since PRIEST WISDOM helped me, my partner is very stable, faithful and closer to me than before. I highly recommend PRIEST WISDOM to anyone in need of help. Email: Supernaturalspell1@gmail.com . Call him or add him on whatsapp via: +2348124644470 PRIEST WISDOM BLOG PAGE: https://supernaturalspell21.blogspot.com/      











      When I found PRIEST WISDOM I was in desperate need of bringing my ex lover back. He left me for another woman. It happened so fast and I had no say in the situation at all. He just dumped me after 3 years with no explanation. I contacted PRIEST WISDOM  and He told me  what I need to do before he can help me and I did what he told me to, after I provided what he wanted, he cast a love spell to help us get back together. Shortly after he did his spell, my boyfriend started texting me again and felt horrible for what he just put me through. He said that I was the most important person in his life and he knows that now. We moved in together and he was more open to me than before and he started spending more time with me than before. Ever since PRIEST WISDOM helped me, my partner is very stable, faithful and closer to me than before. I highly recommend PRIEST WISDOM to anyone in need of help. Email: Supernaturalspell1@gmail.com . Call him or add him on whatsapp via: +2348124644470 PRIEST WISDOM BLOG PAGE: https://supernaturalspell21.blogspot.com/      

      ........

      Delete
    15. BEST NATURAL TREATMENT FOR HERPES earning that you have HERPES  can be one of the most difficult experiences you go through in life. You may feel scared, sad or even angry – this is OK, and a completely natural part of coping with something that can be life changing.
      It will probably take a while for the news to sink in.

      My name is Bella Panos  and i am from the United States.

      I remember spending so much money buying drugs from hospitals hoping that i will be cured from HERPES INFECTION, but all to no avail. I contacted so many  doctors and they prescribe medicine for me which they indeed tried their best but was unable to provide for me a possible cure, luckily i saw a comment about a herbal doctor, (Dr. Edidia) online.

      I then contacted him (Dr. Edidia) through his email, After much chat and enquiry with the doctor, i decide to take a leap of faith because i have nothing to loose.

      To my greatest surprise, Dr. Edidia prepare a medicine and  send me a Herbal Medicine through FEDEX courier Service, and he gave me guidelines on how am to take it. I followed all procedures as instructed, and after 2 weeks of taking it i was cure from HERPES  his medicine is legit and it is real.

      I just want to encourage all individuals out there living with HERPES , ITCHY SHINGLES , Genital Herpes, HSV1&2, HIV/AIDS/ HPV, COPD, CANCER, Hepatitis b, Lupus, PCOS, Kidney failure, Lung cancer and alot more. That there is still a huge chance that you can get cure only with the help of dr Edidia. kindly contact him via email: dredidiaherbalhome@gmail.com  or whatsapp +2349074505296. you can also visit hs website https://dredidiaherbalhome.simdif.com/
      here is my private email: bellapatos8@gmail.com    

      Delete
    16. Never give up in life they all say no cure to HSV 2 which is a big lie I have pass through many process also i never believe there is really cure to HERPES until I meet Dr Shaibu the doctor that have been helping many people for many years, I came across this doctor online when I was searching for cure online I found out about this man, and to my greatest surprise this man have the herbal medicine which I have been looking for years I explain my problem to him through the email I found on someone who testify about him also, Dr Shaibu write me a reply and explain how the process work so after ordering for the medicine I got it within 4 days and I took it according to the way Dr Shaibu instructed, I was so happy after two week I took the medicine there was very big change in my health when I was done with the process I go for test, I found out I am negative that was the day I have the tears of joy you can also get in contact with my doctor through his email now drshaibuabacha@gmail.com or WhatsApp him +2349051727475. And He also have herbs medicine to cured the following diseases; eczema,urethra wart,chronic problems.Herpes, Cancer, Als,Hepatitis, Diabetes, HPV,Infections,ulcer  ETC

      Delete
  2. Another excellent gem of an article. Love your work and the details and efforts that go into each article.

    ReplyDelete
  3. These insights are known to practitioners. EMH is well known to professors and their students.
    In the real world, it is primarily liquidity that drives asset prices not fundamentals. If there is enough money attracted to an security or a particular asset class (gold/silver/bitcoin recently is a perfect example) for whatever reason, the price will go up due to supply and demand.
    This is also why many astute investors/traders use prices (and price only) to inform their investment decisions. Ultimately, it is the entry/exit price that determines one's P&L, not whether it is right or wrong (although this may be more appealing/rewarding to some)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Without doubt, the view that the market is not efficient, and liquidity has a large impact on pricing, are well subscribed ideas within the investment community. However, my observation is that the focus with respect to market efficiency is often on heuristical biases, emotion and short termism/tracking error, while with respect to liquidity, the focus is mostly on the impact of the Fed & interest rates on asset prices in general.

      The more nuanced application of liquidity flywheel theory to the explanation of long cycles of value underperformance/outperformance; sector, style and asset class preferences, and its contribution to sector-focused booms busts, and anti-bubbles in value, etc, is less common, although as I noted above in an earlier comment, no doubt many investors do think along similar lines.

      Many attribute the strong share price gains we have seen in technology & growth/quality primarily to growth and the desirable nature of 'never sell' high quality businesses, and new economy disruption/growth, for instance, rather than being predominantly driven (at this stage) by liquidity flywheels and multiple expansion. While genuine growth is playing a role, it is overestimated. Similar rationales were used in the late 1990s, and in the Nifty 50 bubble. The leading quality growth stocks of these eras subsequently spent 10-15 years going down/sidewards after the liquidity flywheel reversed and multiple compression prevailed.

      Cheers,
      LT3000

      Delete
  4. Good post. I was quite confused before every time you mentioned liquidity, since I was thinking about the ability to buy and sell without moving the price too much (along the lines of market volume or bid-ask spread). This gives a better explanation.

    Very interesting time to invest right now. As you've said, "value is the 'anti-bubble' expression". I'm noticing that my US portfolio that is overweight banks and insurance firms now seems to be negatively correlated with the S&P 500 instead of being positively correlated with lower volatility. Hoping this negative correlation continues to apply when the tech bubble inevitably bursts. My biggest fear is that value ends up getting hammered alongside the bursting of the tech bubble, a la March 2020.

    ReplyDelete
  5. put aside everything and read your article. Great one (as always). Thx!

    ReplyDelete
  6. One observation is that HKL trades almost identically to Jardine stock, because of their controlling interest. Whether HKL management spins out the assets in the form of a REIT/alternative vehicle is up to Jardine (as you alluded to re: shareholder activism). Hence, for lack of a better word, there is a “control discount” affecting the valuation, in a similar vein to how many LICs trade below NTA. In this case, the control discount may be on the extreme side compared to the underlying value of the assets.

    On HKL itself, the company may face significant headwinds from falling rental yields, especially in light of the Hong Kong/China situation (who knows if Hong Kong will continue to be a financial hub in 50 years). However, falling global bond yields may eventually force asset allocators to place the company in a different bucket, and therefore cause a rerating.

    Great read as always!

    ReplyDelete
  7. You mentioned you don't own HKL. But if HKL has real-estate-level risk with 4x higher returns than real estate, what's stopping you from arbitraging that 4x factor by buying the stock?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Fair question. I considered it, but the simple answer is that I'm spoiled for choice at the moment and I can find many things that are even cheaper. The relevant arbitrage for me is not between their book value returns of 3-4% and their market value returns of 10%, because my alternative cost of capital is not 3-4%, but things where I think I can make 20%+. That said I do have a small indirect exposure through Jardine Strategic, which I bought recently, which is even cheaper. It's a small holding only though because the dividend payout is low (1.5-2.0% yield), and the reinvestment return on retained earnings will likely be low (5-10%).

      Cheers,
      LT

      Delete
    2. This was the key question for me - it sounds like a buy from what you have said? Are there any other alternatives you’d flag to Jardine?

      Delete
    3. In general as opportunities, rather than alternative ways to gain exposure to hk land?

      Delete
    4. A mere couple of years back there was a huge bid for Mandarin Oriental HK which, had Jardine accepted the offer, would have rendered the rest of listed-Mandarin Oriental assets "free" (with some spare change to boot). Jardine did not accept. Therein lies the "Jardine discount".

      Delete
  8. Lyall excellent post with deep insights, as usual.

    I do like your flywheel analogy, but I'm not sure I'd agree that it is under appreciated. Without wanting to sound overly critical (I think you know I very much value your posts), the way I see it, this is just market momentum by another name. Wouldn't you say it is pretty much what has been well understood for many years, as the driver of long cycles in markets. I suggest Templeton's well documented words "Bull markets are born in pessimism, grow on scepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria", are essentially an articulation of this very thing.

    Thinking in terms of control-systems, we could say that momentum occurs because as more market participants focus on price (as they are increasingly doing now), then the feedback error in the control system becomes positive, and therefore a magnitude amplifier. That is, if the measure of success is a price rise, then buying will trigger more buying. On the other hand, if the measure of success is the earnings yield, or the PV of future cash-flows etc, then the feedback error becomes negative. That is, a price rise will eventually trigger selling rather than buying, and so the system will be self correcting, and thus tend to "efficiency".

    I know none of this is new to you, but I'm just illustrating that there are many ways to think about market momentum.

    I suggest another way we can think about momentum is simply in terms of market sentiment. I think markets are not so much efficient at digesting all known information, as they are efficient at reflecting sentiment. In the past, I suspect momentum had shorter cycles and markets spent more time at "informational efficiency" because there was more opinion diversity. Momentum is the antithesis of opinion diversity - as it is essentially a manifestation of rising popularity (ie loss of diversity). Of course, fundamental factors feed into sentiment - but as the focus shifts more to price, and away from the underlying asset, then positive sentiment becomes self reinforcing.

    So then the question, if you accept any of that, is why are we seeing a loss of opinion diversity? This is probably quite a complex question, and I suspect it has much to do with social media. I once thought the internet would lead to greater market efficiency as information became more widely disseminated. Ironically, as information has become a commodity (thanks to its dissemination), sentiment has also become more widely disseminated.

    In short, sentiment has trumped information.

    The other irony of all this, is that whilst once fundamental smarts (IQ) provided outsized returns, I now suspect that “character smarts” (EI) will provide outsized returns. The catch is that you may have to wait a very, very long time to reap the rewards, and you may have lost all your clients before you get there.

    Ah money management, damned if you do, damned if you don’t…

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks Mars,

      I love Templeton's quote "bull markets are born in pessimism, grow on scepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria", but I don't believe it is the same thing that I'm arguing here.

      While he is right about this, it's also symptomatic of most investors ascribing market movements & inefficiency wholly to fluctations in investor emotions (fear & greed), which as I noted early in the piece, are important contributors to market dynamics, but ones that are over-emphasised relative to the structural market forces I discuss in this article.

      What I am arguing here is that bull market & even bubble excesses can be just as much a function of structural market forces and liquidity flywheels as they are explicit euphoria and greed. Witness the bull market we have seen over the past decade in the US, and this year since March. The majority of market participants have actually been bearish/cautious through most of this period. And yet markets have risen strongly, to a large extent due to incessant inflows from passive. This is not a bull market borne of the type of optimism and euphoria Templeton speaks of (outside certain individual names like Tesla etc). It's more borne of the sheer force of liquidity, which has overwhelmed general bearishness.

      So I do believe these distinctions are very important and much under-appreciated.

      Cheers,
      LT3000

      Delete
    2. Maybe. Don't completely disagree. Really just exploring the issue. But ask yourself this, if the market was divided in two, with Market A being that which is currently popular ('tech' + safe + steady + moatish) and Market B being everything else, then we would have two very distinct circumstances and drivers - as you have pretty much articulated.

      Would we then be talking about Market A being euphoric? I suspect so. I'm suggesting (though I my be wrong) that your flywheel cannot exist without corresponding sentiment. That's my sense, but I stress, I'm just exploring the issue - and am not 100% convinced myself.

      I still think Templeton's observation holds - as I suspect short a sufficient extraneous shock (which clearly we have not had yet, in fact quite the opposite in terms of the pre-existing dynamics) that the broad market will not correct until the excesses move beyond just specific segments. I sense.

      Delete
  9. Fascinating post. It begs the question of what prevents value to continue to underperform growth for another 10 years? What is needed for the flywheel to reverse? It seems 2-3yrs ago the argument was 'well value has u/p for such a long time....we should see mean reversion now'.....now it seems the argument could be formed that says 'well value has officially reached its greatest dislocation of all time'.... I am just not sure what that means for the reversal

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Exactly my thoughts on this growth vs value debate. My guess is when the Fed engineered liquidity goes (Fed reverse QEs, v unlikely judging by bond yields) or some sort of unknown unknown take out the moment (like covid19). so, piling!

      Delete
    2. Hi Anonymous,

      I might explore this topic in more detail in another blog posts. However, the basic issue is that while liquidity flywheels can go on for a very long time, it's an unstable equilibrium long term, because if it goes on long enough, cheap/value stocks will eventually get so cheap their dividend + buyback returns can rise as high as 20%+. At some point, this will result in returns rising to above-market levels even with continuing multiple compression.

      When the returns start to beat the market, outflows slow & turn to inflows, then you can add multiple expansion to the 20%+ cash flow returns, and you start to see killers numbers, followed by more inflows, etc. So in the long run, it is not possible for cheap stocks to continue to get cheaper indefinitely. It can, however, go on for a very long time.

      When will it turn? Hard to say. However, you know you are getting closer to the end when the multiple divergences start to increase exponentially. In the growth/bubble areas of markets, prices have been rising faster and faster of late which is characteristic of the late stages of bubbles, and value multiples have been falling faster and faster as well. I think we are not too far away from the reversal point, but that is always difficult to predict.

      Cheers,
      Lyall

      Delete
  10. LT Would you please write about areas of the markets you find interesting, no need to suggest individual names, just beaten down areas.

    All the best.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Awesome post, always a treat to read. You’re probably the only person I’ve read so far that has made a convincing case for active outperformance of the market. Usually it’s endless nebulous suggestions that you can magically avoid downside and take upside, without any convincing reasons why. In particular, as a fairly new investor I find the idea that most just aren’t patient enough, and too willing to abandon the strategy at the worst moments a pretty real reflection of my experience. Once the covid crash was over, the waiting starts...

    I find cases like Dongfeng motor pretty curious.. is it simply a combination of the company failing to pay out profits in dividends or buybacks, alongside a persistently dropping shareprice driving more impatient investors out of the stock? (Of course, you’d probably need a crystal ball to figure out why, I suppose)

    I’m not entirely sure I buy the passive inflow explanation you mention further up - I suppose you include the vast majority of active management in that (hugging the index to avoid underperforming)? Once a passive investor buys a stock they hold onto it, thus largely removing it from the price discovery process.

    What’s your process for finding undervalued stocks? I sometimes just sort a list by PE and trawl through a bunch of financial reports hoping to find something interesting, but it seems a bit slow and inefficient, especially because a lot of those kinds of companies really are just kind of bad. Maybe I’m just being lazy xD.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Very valuable insights. Thank you. A quick question. If you're arguing that the market's valuation for reliable, fixed income assets is - in some ways - irrelevant, what's the downside of REITs. If they're reliably paying 5% it doesn't matter if they're more "accurately" valued by the market, right? Essentially it's an argument for fixed income instead of the thrills of market trades?

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  13. Fantastic as always. Which markets do you find has pushed down valuations in "value" stocks the most? In my opinion HK and Singapore exchange are pretty extreme. Also Italy..

    ReplyDelete
  14. Brilliant post, thanks for sharing!

    I have come to the same observations and conclusions on a theoretical and practical level. On a theoretical level, in addition to the points that you have mentioned, it might also be interesting to look into how momentum/liquidity flywheel moves the ultimate underlying in some cases. This is fascinating to see. In most cases though, it is rather a matter of multiple expansion as you have described due to shorter term capital allocation decisions and market structure.

    On a practical level, I came to the conclusion about a decade ago, that I can use this understanding for an attempt at "outperforming" by avoiding the structural deficits of the market. Value/Growth investment styles both pretty much look backwards instead of looking into the future. My point: undervaluation might not be as easy to spot as in the past as technological disruption was slower. I understand that my words are a bit of a "this time is different" type of argument, but on one hand, technology has created the basis for the liquidity flywheel that you mention and has accelerated the flywheel. Technology also leads to rapid moat destruction and meaningless balance sheets and past P&L accounts. The investors assignment should therefore be the assessment of the future development of cashflows of the underlying. That's arguably a more difficult assignment and in practice often associated (right so) with sloppy practices of short term forecasting at best and marketing parlait at worst. But this is my understanding of Buffetts famous Value and Growth are joined by the hip saying. In my view, trying to assess the outcomes and possibilities of an asset is crucial. In terms of real estate that is often a relatively simple task (compared to say a car manufacturer). In terms of HKLand portfolio, it would be difficult to establish an own, independent valuation of the assets for me (not living in HK), but maybe possible. I saw such a chance in another real estate company, the underlying on their balance sheet was way below the EV looking at the assets individually. Invested in the stock and was able to ride this upwards until the gap now is almost closed (maybe only a 20-30% gap left).

    In the "value investor and contrarian" camp, I still see too much disbelief about the disruption brought by technology. I am a contrarian at heart, but will be very cautious not to jump into sectors that might be in the process of being disrupted (i.e. I wouldn't invest in traditional car manufacturers). My approach is to find "value plays" that are less risky to be disrupted by technology. Residential real estate is one such asset class. Airports could potentially be another asset class. Agricultural land. Maybe telecommunication lines - but in that case I am not yet sure about the threats coming from the various attempts of big Internet companies to disrupt that field. Energy distribution lines is another field that is almost impossible to disrupt in the next years while energy generation could potentially be disrupted to some degree.

    While you rightly point out that the momentum is only partially due to emotions and other part due to structural points, it is still an emotional thing to find "cheap" assets with the prospect that for example British American Tobacco or China Mobile might look cheap now, but might get much cheaper in the future and hence it is very difficult or not advised at all to use leverage even at these potentially low levels to enhance the cashflows of underlyings that are already much higher than borrowed funds yields. I guess that is what you mean when it comes to the missing "liquidity" or potential for leverage for investors to invest in "cheap assets". Leverage cannot used as the momentum might push own longer than you stay liquid. Lots of food for thought. Thanks for the article and if you read it, Philip: Thanks for pointing me to this article.

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  23. Lyall, coming back to the theme that the same asset can have two different prices depending on how it's packaged, I would be interested on your thoughts about the difference between share prices in Hong Kong and Shanghai.

    For many years shares quoted on the Shanghai stock exchange ("A" Shares), have been traded at vastly different prices from the same stock traded in Hong Kong ("H" shares).

    You can see a table of the up-to-the-minute price comparison here: http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/market/ah.aspx?sort=5&order=1&filter=3


    In some cases, the Shanghai price is 4 or 5 time higher than the Hong Kong price. As an example, Petrochina today is trading in Hong Kong at HKD 2.71, while on the mainland, the price is CNY 4.48. (CNY 1 = HKD 1.12). It's the same share, with the same dividend per share, just a different place of quotation.

    Some years ago (about 7 years ago), the Hong Kong - Shanghai connect (SH/SZ-HK Connect) was put in place which should have caused the price differential to vanish, but it didn't.

    I would be interested to know your thoughts on why the price differential still persists and is so large.

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    Replies
    1. Hi

      I am not speaking on Lyall's behalf. But there are trading volume restrictions and quotas for HK/CN Southbound and Northbound stock connect. Stocks denominated in CNY are noticeably less liquid due to this issue, as well as issues with restricted CNY.

      Lyall, If you have anything to add, I will love to hear from you.

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  83. Its a pleasure for me to write this testimony about how i got my Genital Herpes cured a month ago. i have been reading so many comments of some people who were cured from various diseases by Dr .Obor but i never believed them. I was hurt and depressed so I was too curious and wanted to try Dr. Oboite, then i contacted him through his email when i contact him, he assured me 100% that he will heal me, i pleaded with him to help me out. My treatment was a great success, he healed me just as he promised. he sent me his medication and ask me to go for check up after one weeks of taking the medication. i agreed with him i took this medication and went for check up a , to my greatest surprise my result was negative after the treatment, i am really happy that i am cured and healthy again. I have waited for 3 weeks to be very sure i was completely healed before writing this testimony. I did another blood test one week ago and it was still Herpes negative. so i guess its time i recommend anyone going through Herpes HSV-1 or HSV-2, HIV, HPV, Hepatitis B, Diabetes, Cancer reach him through Email hsvcuretemple@gmail.com OR add on whats app +2348105813057 or message him on his page on instagram ,@dr-obor5

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  84. Must read! My names are shelly renae from US taxes, for a year now i have been living with this virus called HEPATITIS B VIRUS and i have been taking some medications from my Doctor and there was no improvement, All thanks to God almighty for using Dr obor for curing my Herpes Virus with the help of his powerful root and herbs...Well i do not have much to say, with all my life i will for ever be grateful to him and God Almighty for using Dr obor to reach me when i thought it is all over, today i am now happy after the medical doctor have confirmed my status Negative, i have never in my life believed that HEPATITIS B could be cure by any herbal medicine. so i want to use this medium to reach other persons who is suffering from any deadly disease or hepatitis b you can contact Dr obor on his email, hsvcuretemple@gmail.com or call/whatsapp +2348105813057 Thanks.

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  96. Hello everyone. Dr. Maggi Herbs is a good remedy for herpes Virus , I was a carrier of herpes virus and I saw a testimony on how Dr. Maggi cure Herpes Virus, I decided to contact him, I contacted him and he guided me. I asked him for solutions and he started the remedies for my health. After he finish he sent me the herbs which i took for 2 weeks before asking me to go for a check up and getting there i could not believe that i was confirm HSV 2 Negative after the test, Today i am so happy because i'm free from herpes disease with the help of Dr. Maggi. Thank God now everything is fine, I'm cured by Dr. Maggi herbal medicine, I'm very thankful to God for making it possible. you can reach him on his email, i strongly recommend him to any one out here looking for a cure.Contact Dr Maggi via email: drmaggiherbalhome@gmail.com call or whatsApp him on+1(917)979-6387.

    ReplyDelete
  97. I’m so excited my broken Marriage has been restored. “We recently made up, even though it was difficult. It’s been more than a month now, and everything feels like it’s returned to normal. He has began to treat me better, and it’s been a healing process for both of us. The nightmare that had lasted for almost 2 years before we broke up is finally over. It’s like we fell in love all over again! We’ve both put the past behind us, and are trying to move forward – and for the first time in a long time, the future looks a lot brighter. I can’t express in words how grateful I am Dr Great! It’s like we’ve finally rediscovered those things about each other that made us fall in love in the first place. All of the worrying and stress has simply vanished. Thank you Dr Great for saving my broken Marriage and brought my husband back to me!”. Me and my husband are living together happily again.. All thanks to Dr Great. If you have any problem contact Dr Great now and i guarantee you that he will help you contact him through

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  98. I’m so excited my broken Marriage has been restored. “We recently made up, even though it was difficult. It’s been more than a month now, and everything feels like it’s returned to normal. He has began to treat me better, and it’s been a healing process for both of us. The nightmare that had lasted for almost 2 years before we broke up is finally over. It’s like we fell in love all over again! We’ve both put the past behind us, and are trying to move forward – and for the first time in a long time, the future looks a lot brighter. I can’t express in words how grateful I am Dr Great! It’s like we’ve finally rediscovered those things about each other that made us fall in love in the first place. All of the worrying and stress has simply vanished. Thank you Dr Great for saving my broken Marriage and brought my husband back to me!”. Me and my husband are living together happily again.. All thanks to Dr Great. If you have any problem contact Dr Great now and i guarantee you that he will help you contact him through

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  99. Hello everyone. Dr. Maggi Herbs is a good remedy for herpes Virus , I was a carrier of herpes virus and I saw a testimony on how Dr. Maggi cure Herpes Virus, I decided to contact him, I contacted him and he guided me. I asked him for solutions and he started the remedies for my health. After he finish he sent me the herbs which i took for 2 weeks before asking me to go for a check up and getting there i could not believe that i was confirm HSV 2 Negative after the test, Today i am so happy because i'm free from herpes disease with the help of Dr. Maggi. Thank God now everything is fine, I'm cured by Dr. Maggi herbal medicine, I'm very thankful to God for making it possible. you can reach him on his email, i strongly recommend him to any one out here looking for a cure.Contact Dr Maggi via email: drmaggiherbalhome@gmail.com call or whatsApp him on+1(917)979-6387.

    ReplyDelete
  100. Hi viewers, I'm posting this Because i found lots of people having marriage problems which I also experienced. I recently found help from a man called Dr. Oselumen he did a great job that made my man fell back in love with me again after ten months of separation. I want you to know there are fake online spell Dr .s if someone out there needs help, can email this great spell caster, droselumen@gmail.com check or connect with him on WhatsApp +2348054265852. He will give you the best result.
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  101. HELLO!!!..  EVERYONE, i don't just know the reason why some people is finding it difficult to believe that there is a cure for HPV, i have been HPV+ since last three years with my boyfriend but today i am happy that i cured the HPV_ with herbal medicine of DR Omola the great healer,i was browsing the internet searching for help when I came across a testimony shared by someone on how DR Omola cured his Asthma i was so in need of getting his treatment but after all DR Omola brought a smile to my face with his herbal medicine. i am so much happy today that we have someone like this great healer out there, so my people out there kindly contact this great healer on his email address: dr.omolaherbalhome@gmail.com call or whatsapp on +2348118116254 he can render to you your help!

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  103. Dr. Kham Miracle Herbal Medicine is The Best, It Helps Me to Eradicate My Herpes Virus Just in Two Weeks.......
    Why go to expensive treatment in hospitals whereby Dr Kham Herbal Medicine is here to clean you from Herpes and many more illnesses …  I had Herpes for 9 months they all tell me there was no cure for me I have go to different hospital I always have same news, I was confused because I feel like ending my life but i thank God I was able to locate herbal doctor Kham who help me I found his email on site how people was writing Good about him I never believe he can really cured me until when I get my test done. I am so happy to tell you this herbal doctor Kham has a herbal cure for Herpes and you can take the medicine according to his instructions. You will find out that you will give testimony like me. I took his herbal medicine for just 2 week. I am so happy today that I am really free from this sickness. Here is herbal doctor Kham email dr.khamcaregiver@gmail.com or Whatsapp: +2348159922297  you can also visit his website to know more about him at  https://drkhamherbalhealingcenter.wordpress.com/  or https://drkhamcaregiver.wixsite.com/drkhamcaregiverherba   or Visit his FB PAGE: https://web.facebook.com/Dr-Kham-Herbal-Remedies-101547721440460/    ………………………………. you can reach him out now 

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  106. I just want the whole world to know about this spell caster I met
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  107. I'm 40 years old female I tested genital herpes (HSV1-2) positive in 2002. I was having bad outbreaks. EXTREMELY PAINFUL. I have try different kinds of drugs and treatment by the medical doctors all to know was avail. Six months ago I was desperately online searching for a helpful remedies for genital herpes (HSV1-2) cure, which i come across some helpful remedies on how Dr Ebhodaghe have help so many people in curing genital herpes (HSV1-2) with the help of herbal treatment because I too believe there is someone somewhere in the world who can cure herpes completely. At of the past 2 months, however, I've been following his herpes protocol Via drebhodaghejoseph@gmail.com or +2348075253808 and it stopped all outbreaks completely! To my greatest surprise I was cured completely by following the protocol of his herbal medicine . Don't be discouraged by the medical doctors. There is a cure for HSV with the help of herbs and roots by a herbalist Dr call Dr Ebhodaghe he is so kind and truthful with his herbal treatment, kindly contact him for more information Via drebhodaghejoseph@gmail.com or WhatsApp DR on +2348075253808 you will be lucky as i am today

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  108. Herpes is a serious and recurring disease which can't be cured through drugs or injections by the American doctors but the best way to deal with Herpes is by taking natural herbs medicine for it, I have read about DR IKHELOA the great herbalist doctor who cure me from herpes with his powerful herbal medicine. i contacted him to know how he can help me and he told me never to worry that he will help me with the natural herbs from God!after 2 days of contacting him, he told me that the cure has been ready and he sent it to me via UPS SPEED POST and it got to me after 3 days!i used the medicine as he instructed me (MORNING and EVENING) and i was cured!its really like a dream but i am so happy! for the people suffering from the following diseases, Cancer, hypothyroidism, Herpes, COPD, HIV, Arthritis, Hpv, Infections,Liver Disease, Autoimmune Diseases, Parkinson's disease,Lupus Canker sore and more should contact him for his herbal medicine because i am a living testimony and i was cured of herpes and his medicine is legit. i sent him what he requested and he sent me his medicine which i took for 3 good weeks and today am out here with negative result. when i went for test i was so happy after going through his medication. you can reach him through his email drikheloaherbalremedyhome@gmail.com or call whatsapp number:+2348025330528 he will help you out. https://www.facebook.com/dr.ikheloa.herbal.remedy.home/

    ReplyDelete
  109. Battling with any health related issues or infection is not the end of your life, why not contact a herbal practitioner for cure dr Maggi has herbal remedies and permanent solution for all your health related problems.I recommend him to you today only because i have also used his herbal medicine and it worked perfectly on my health problem, you can actually save yourself from giving your hard earned money to Scammers if only you can contact dr Maggi today for genuine and Permanent cure herbal products . Pls help share this post to save yourself and your love ones.Dr Maggi is specialize in these areas,Permanent herbal supplements for anxiety and depression,HIV/AIDS, Diabetes, Epilepsy, Blood, Cancer, HPV, ALS, herpes etc. Email: drmaggiherbalhome@gmail.com also call or whatsApp him on +19179796387

    ReplyDelete
  110. Hello! I'm very excited to inform everyone that I'm completely cured from my HSV 1&2 recently. I have used Oregano oil, Coconut oil, Acyclovir, Valacyclovir, Famciclovir, and some other products and it's really help during my outbreaks but I totally got cured! from my HSV with a strong and active herbal medicine ordered from a powerful herbalist and it completely fought the virus from my nervous system and I was tested negative after 14 days of using the herbal medicine. I'm here to let y'all know that herpes virus has a complete cure, I got rid of mine with the help of Dr Balogun and his herbal exploit. Contact him via email: balogun.herbalsolutioncenter@gmail.com call or whatsApp him on  +2349064881054.   

    ReplyDelete
  111. I saw a health promotion on a herbalist from Africa who prepares herbal medicines to cure all sorts of diseases including HIV and many others sickness, I first doubted It was not true but decided to try, when I contacted this herbal physician via his e-mail, dr.chalaherbalhome@gmail.com or drchala2@gmail.com,i was totally cure from the virus
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    ReplyDelete
  112. It’s obvious some patients with herpes are being enslaved to the antiviral and other supplementary Orthodox medicine just to help suppress the virus and not a cure. I have been with the virus since 2015 until I was introduced by a blogger who also narrated her story online on how she was cured of Genital Herpes after using Dr Sikies Herbal Medicine. This is a year and 2 weeks since I was delivered from genital Herpes. All thanks to God for using this Great herbalist to heal me. I have promised to keep telling good things about Dr Sikies. Please feel free to share Your problems with him and don’t forget to tell him I did refer you to Him. Thanks. Write him on mail Drsikies@gmail.com He deals with Alzheimer virus, Cancer, HIV, Herpes, Genital, warts, ALS, BV, UTI, Virginal infection, Genital, Wart, HPV, Hepatitis A/B, Good luck, HSV, Pregnancy, Ex back.  

    here is his website: https://drsikiesherbalcure.weebly.com 

    you can reach me via mail: anitalawson515@gmail.com

    ReplyDelete
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  114. i really appreciate the effort of the great Dr wiskid for restoring my broken relationship. i thought my life has crashed and would not get all i have lost. but the moment i contacted Dr wiskid the best and genuine spell caster everything changed within 48 hours after the reunion spell. if you think the ether can be bent to your favor and you want to contract a genuine spell caster to remove all the hate in your life. contact Dr wiskid and am so sure the result will overwhelm you with tears of joy! contact him on this email address: drwiskid.spellcaster@yahoo.com he is a good man thanks. his whatsapp number too is +2348078467513 You can also visit his website: www.herbalhome247.wixsite.com/mysite

    ReplyDelete
  115. I am really happy that i have been cured from (HERPES SIMPLEX VIRUS) with the herbal medicine of Dr OGBENI , i have been suffering from this disease for the past 3 years and 4 mouth without solution until i came across the email of this doctor who have cure so many people with his herbal medicine, i also choose to give him a chance to help me and my husband, he told me what to do and i kindly did it, and he gave us his herbal medicine and direct me on how to use it, i also follow his instructions for use and he ask us to go for a check up after 1 week and 5days which i did, to my greatest surprise our result came out as negative, we are really happy that there is someone like this doctor who is ready to help anytime any day. To all the readers and viewers that is doubting this testimony stop doubting it and contact this doctor if you really have one and see if he will not actually help you. i am not a stupid woman that i will come out to the public and start saying what someone have not done for me and i know that there are some people out there who are really suffering and hurting their family just because of these diseases so you can Email him on dr.ogbeniherbalhome@gmail.com OR
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    ReplyDelete
  116. HOW I GOT MY LOVER BACK BY POWERFUL SPELL CASTER CALLED DR PADMAN

    I want to let the world know about Doctor PADMAN the Great spell caster that brought back my husband to me when i thought all hope was lost My husband left me for another woman three months ago and ever since then my life have been filled with pains sorrow and heart break because he was my first love whom i have spent my entire life with,A friend of mine told me he saw some testimonies of a spell caster called PADMAN that he can bring back lover within some few days I contacted him, Doctor PADMAN used his powerful spell to put a smile on my face by bringing back my man with his spell, at first i thought i was dreaming when my husband came back to me on his knees begging me to forgive him and accepted, get your divorce wife or husband back, I will advise you to contact him ,he is there to help you and put a smile on your face HIS EMAIL: padmanlovespell@yahoo.com or info@padmanspell.com Webesit: http://padmanspell.com/ or WhatsApp +19492293867

    ReplyDelete
  117. BEST  LOVE SPELL CASTER TO GET YOUR EX LOVER, HUSBAND, WIFE, GIRLFRIEND OR BOYFRIEND BACK. ADD HIM UP ON WHATSAPP:  +2348124644470  

    I am very happy today with my family. My name is Joann Vera from the USA . I am 34 years old. My husband left me for good 1 years now, and i love him so much, i have been looking for a way to get him back since then. i have tried many options but he did not come back, until i met a friend that darted me to PRIEST WISDOM  a powerful spell caster, who helped me to bring back my husband after 2 days. Me and my husband are living happily together today, That man is great, you can contact him via email supernaturalspell1@gmail.com … Now i will advise any serious persons that found themselves in this kind of problem to contact him now for fast solution without stress.. He is always there to help you , now i call him my father.contact him now he is always online or email (supernaturalspell@yahoo.com  ) or contact him on his WhatsApp mobile line +2348124644470 
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    ReplyDelete
  118. BEST  LOVE SPELL CASTER TO GET YOUR EX LOVER, HUSBAND, WIFE, GIRLFRIEND OR BOYFRIEND BACK. ADD HIM UP ON WHATSAPP:  +2348124644470  

    I am very happy today with my family. My name is Joann Vera from the USA . I am 34 years old. My husband left me for good 1 years now, and i love him so much, i have been looking for a way to get him back since then. i have tried many options but he did not come back, until i met a friend that darted me to PRIEST WISDOM  a powerful spell caster, who helped me to bring back my husband after 2 days. Me and my husband are living happily together today, That man is great, you can contact him via email supernaturalspell1@gmail.com … Now i will advise any serious persons that found themselves in this kind of problem to contact him now for fast solution without stress.. He is always there to help you , now i call him my father.contact him now he is always online or email (supernaturalspell@yahoo.com  ) or contact him on his WhatsApp mobile line +2348124644470 
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  120. Can't still believe that i got cured from Genital Herpes through herbal treatment from Dr maggi who I met through the internet, I actually couldn't believe it at first because it sounded impossible to me knowing how far I have gone just to get rid of it. Dr maggi send me his medicine which I took as instructed and here I am living a happy life once again, a big thanks to Dr maggi, I am sure there are many herbal doctors out there but Dr maggi did it for me, contact him drmaggiherbalhome@gmail.com , also call or whatsApp him on +1(917) 979-6387.

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  126. Hello my name is Sally my fiance broke up with me last week i was so sad I changed completely, I wasn't eating and i wasn't talking to anybody, I cried a lot,I was so depressed and stressed out that I was scared I'm going to end up in the hospital because of all the stress and depression until one day i search online on getting love tips because I Love & care about him deeply and I just want us to be together as a couple again and I want us to last forever then i found a powerful spell caster Called Priest Ade that he solved so many relationship problem then Priest Ade told me he will come back to me between 24hrs after he cast spell on him never believe it until my finance called me on the phone and told me he want us to come back and live happily together forever , Am so happy now that Priest Ade help me bring my finance back to me. Thanks so much Priest Ade  he can also help you Email him at 
    ancientspiritspellcast@yahoo.com or ancientspiritspellcast@gmail.com 
    Blog: https://priestade.blogspot.com
    WhatsApp +2347059715465

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  127. Hello my name is Sally my fiance broke up with me last week i was so sad I changed completely, I wasn't eating and i wasn't talking to anybody, I cried a lot,I was so depressed and stressed out that I was scared I'm going to end up in the hospital because of all the stress and depression until one day i search online on getting love tips because I Love & care about him deeply and I just want us to be together as a couple again and I want us to last forever then i found a powerful spell caster Called Priest Ade that he solved so many relationship problem then Priest Ade told me he will come back to me between 24hrs after he cast spell on him never believe it until my finance called me on the phone and told me he want us to come back and live happily together forever , Am so happy now that Priest Ade help me bring my finance back to me. Thanks so much Priest Ade  he can also help you Email him at 
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    Blog: https://priestade.blogspot.com
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  128. Hello my name is Sally my fiance broke up with me last week i was so sad I changed completely, I wasn't eating and i wasn't talking to anybody, I cried a lot,I was so depressed and stressed out that I was scared I'm going to end up in the hospital because of all the stress and depression until one day i search online on getting love tips because I Love & care about him deeply and I just want us to be together as a couple again and I want us to last forever then i found a powerful spell caster Called Priest Ade that he solved so many relationship problem then Priest Ade told me he will come back to me between 24hrs after he cast spell on him never believe it until my finance called me on the phone and told me he want us to come back and live happily together forever , Am so happy now that Priest Ade help me bring my finance back to me. Thanks so much Priest Ade  he can also help you Email him at 
    ancientspiritspellcast@yahoo.com or ancientspiritspellcast@gmail.com 
    Blog: https://priestade.blogspot.com
    WhatsApp +2347059715465

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  130. Good day to all viewer online am so happy sharing this great testimony on how i was checking for solution in the internet then miraculously i came Across Dr.Oba the powerful herbalist that Cure Numerous individuals Herpes Simplex Virus,so I contacted him base on the testimonies I?m seeing about him on the internet, I was cured too by him, kindly contact him actoday through his email he can help you email ; drobaspellhome902@gmail.com OR WHATSAPP +2348088337602 and so he can cure types of diseases like,HEPATITIS B,DIABETICS,CANCER,HPV,LOW SPERM CAM HIV/STDS FIBROSIS LOST OF WEIGHT .. all thank to you Dr Oba for your kindly help in my life
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  131. I am really happy that i have been cured from (HERPES SIMPLEX VIRUS) with the herbal medicine of Dr OGBENI , i have been suffering from this disease for the past 3 years and 4 mouth without solution until i came across the email of this doctor who have cure so many people with his herbal medicine, i also choose to give him a chance to help me and my husband, he told me what to do and i kindly did it, and he gave us his herbal medicine and direct me on how to use it, i also follow his instructions for use and he ask us to go for a check up after 1 week and 5days which i did, to my greatest surprise our result came out as negative, we are really happy that there is someone like this doctor who is ready to help anytime any day. To all the readers and viewers that is doubting this testimony stop doubting it and contact this doctor if you really have one and see if he will not actually help you. i am not a stupid woman that i will come out to the public and start saying what someone have not done for me and i know that there are some people out there who are really suffering and hurting their family just because of these diseases so you can Email him on dr.ogbeniherbalhome@gmail.com OR
    WHATSAPP him on +2348103170329

    Thank you for your time and be happy again

    https://www.facebook.com/Dr-Ogbeni-100937351577518/

    ReplyDelete
  132. It’s obvious some patients with herpes are being enslaved to the antiviral and other supplementary Orthodox medicine just to help suppress the virus and not a cure. I have been with the virus since 2015 until I was introduced by a blogger who also narrated her story online on how she was cured of Genital Herpes after using Dr Sikies Herbal Medicine. This is a year and 2 weeks since I was delivered from genital Herpes. All thanks to God for using this Great herbalist to heal me. I have promised to keep telling good things about Dr Sikies. Please feel free to share Your problems with him and don’t forget to tell him I did refer you to Him. Thanks. Write him on mail Drsikies@gmail.com He deals with Alzheimer virus, Cancer, HIV, Herpes, Genital, warts, ALS, BV, UTI, Virginal infection, Genital, Wart, HPV, Hepatitis A/B, Good luck, HSV, Pregnancy, Ex back.

    here is his website: https://drsikiesherbalcure.weebly.com

    you can reach me via mail: anitalawson515@gmail.com

    ReplyDelete
  133. I am here to share testimony on how Dr Ojamo herbal remedy cured me from herpes I have been suffering from herpes for more than 2 year until I met a friend who directed me to Dr Ojamo i had doubts at first but now I am a living testimony, after taken the herbs he gave to me l started having some changes within my body and now I am totally cured from herpes He also have cure for any kind of diseases and infection contact him today and save your self, God bless you Dr Ojamo, you can reach him on whatsapp +2349077406037 or email him at dr.ojamoherbalhome@gmail.com

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  135. Hello Every one,

    My name is Mrs Harrison Francesca I live in UK London Liverpool am from Germany and i am a happy woman today? and i told my self that any lender that can rescue my family from our poor situation, i will refer any person that is looking for loan to the lender all thanks go to Mr Alexander Grant he gave me happiness to me and my family, I was in need of a loan of 450,000.00 euro to start my life all over, as i am a single mother with 2kids I met this honest and GOD fearing man loan lender that help me with a loan of450,000.00 euro, he is a GOD fearing man, if you are in need of loan and you will pay back the loan please contact him via email... (info.acg3@gmail.com) COMPANY NAME: Loan Situation Center NAME: Alexander Grant

    Mrs Harrison Francesca

    ReplyDelete
  136. i almost gave up on ever getting cured of HSV2 because i have try many treatment none of them work out for me i have go to different hospital they always tell me same thing there is no cure for herpes when i came across a post about DR Okoh the net from a lady called Angela i contacted him and he reassured me with him herbal medicine which i took according to the way he instructed, that how i was cured. I doubted at first because i have been to a whole lot of reputable doctors, tried a lot of medicines but none was able to cure me. so i decided to listen to him and he commenced treatment, and under two weeks i was totally fee from #Herpes . i want to say a very big thank you to DR Okoh for what he has done in my life. feel free to leave him a message on email drokohsolutionhome@gmail.com and also WhatsApp him +2349070857827
    He can still be able to help you with this herbs medicine:
    1...ALS CURE/DIABETES CURE/EPILESY/HPV CURE/LUPUS/HEPATITIS/CANCER/GOUT

    ReplyDelete
  137. Hello everyone. Dr. Maggi Herbs is a good remedy for herpes Virus , I was a carrier of herpes virus and I saw a testimony on how Dr. Maggi cure Herpes Virus, I decided to contact him, I contacted him and he guided me. I asked him for solutions and he started the remedies for my health. After he finish he sent me the herbs which i took for 2 weeks before asking me to go for a check up and getting there i could not believe that i was confirm HSV 2 Negative after the test, Today i am so happy because i'm free from herpes disease with the help of Dr. Maggi. Thank God now everything is fine, I'm cured by Dr. Maggi herbal medicine, I'm very thankful to God for making it possible. you can reach him on his email, i strongly recommend him to any one out here looking for a cure.Contact Dr Maggi via email: drmaggiherbalhome@gmail.com call or whatsApp him on+1(917)979-6387.

    ReplyDelete
  138. Searching for Replica Furniture for your home online? Visit our shop for the largest range of replica Sofa, replica chairs and tables and specialize in replica furniture, Light online and ship express

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  139. I'm Blessing by name, i was diagnosed with Herpes virus for 3 years, i lived in pain with the knowledge that i wasn't going to ever be well again i contacted so many herbal doctors on this issue and wasted a large sum of money but my condition never got better i was determined to get my life back so one day i saw Mr Brown post on how Dr Akuza saved him from the VIRUS with herbal medicine i contacted Dr Akuza. on his email address  (drakuzasolutioncenter@gmail.com)  we spoke on the issue i told him all that i went through and he told me not to worry that everything will be fine again so he prepared the medicine and send it to me through courier service and told me how to use it, after 14 days of usage I went to see the doctor for test, then the result was negative, am the happiest woman on earth now. This testimony is real. thanks to Dr Akuza. God bless you. you can also reach him on his whatsApp number +2348072437003...

    ReplyDelete
  140. Thank you so much for sharing this information. Valtrex is used to treat infections caused by certain types of viruses. In children, it is used to treat cold sores around the mouth (caused by herpes simplex) and chickenpox. In adults, it is used to treat shingles and cold sores around the mouth. Click here to read more about this medicine.

    ReplyDelete
  141. MY TESTIMONY OF HOW I GOT CURED FROM GENITAL HERPES VIRUS

    It's a pleasure for me to write this testimony about how I got my Genital Herpes cured a month ago. I have been reading so many comments of some people who were cured from various diseases by Dr .Hazim, but I never believed them. I was hurt and depressed so I was too curious and wanted to try Dr. Hazim , then I contacted him through his email. When I contacted him, he assured me 100% that he will heal me, I pleaded with him to help me out. My treatment was a great success, he healed me just as he promised. He sent me his medication and asked me to go for check up after 21 days of taking the medication. I agreed with him. I took this medication and went for a check up after 21 days of the treatment, To my greatest surprise my result came out  negative after the treatment, I'm very happy that I was cured and healthy again. I waited for 3 weeks to be very sure if I was completely healed before writing this testimony. I did another blood test one week ago and it was still Herpes negative. so i guess it's time i recommend anyone going through Herpes, HSV-1 or HSV-2, HIV, HPV, Hepatitis B, Diabetes, Cancer, ALS  to contact this great man through his Email (usmandrhazim@gmail.com) OR add him up on whatsApp  +2349058026857
    Thanks Doctor Hazim Usman 

    ReplyDelete
  142. I Want To Appreciate Dr.OYAGU for his great deeds, I Was Diagnosed With type 2 Herpes Virus Last year,And i Was Looking For Solution To Be Cured Luckily I Saw Testimonies On How Dr.OYAGU Cure Herpes Virus I Decided To Contact Dr.OYAGU I Contacted Him He Prepared A Herbal Medicine Portion And Sent It To Me,I Started The Herbal Medicine For My Health.He Gave Me Step By Step Instructions On How To Apply It, When I Applied It As Instructed, I Was Cured Of This Deadly Herpes Within 2 weeks, I Am Now Herpes Negative.My Brother And Sister I No That There Are So Many People That Have The Same Herpes Virus Please contact Dr OYAGU To Help You Too,And Help Me To Thank Dr.OYAGU For Cure Me, I’m Cured By Dr. OYAGU Herbal Medicine,His Contact Email:oyaguherbalhome@gmail.com
    Or Cell Whatsapp Number +2348101755322 thank you

    ReplyDelete
  143. “I jumped on an opportunity to purchase a rental property over the 4th of  weekend. Mr Lee was quick to respond and since this was my first time getting a loan to buy a rental property , he was able to help me walk through the loan process. It was a great experience working with a good and kind loan lender Mr Lee. I hopefully know very well if you are outta looking for loan to purchase a property or funding business purpose then Mr Lee will be able to help you with such process here his details WhatsApp +1-989-394-3740.   /  247officedept@gmail.com  !”  

    ReplyDelete
  144. *Herpes is a serious and recurring disease which can't be cured through drugs or injections by the American doctors but the best way to deal with Herpes is by taking natural herbs medicine for it and is only few American doctors that know about this herbal medicine from Dr odion.. I have read about Dr odion the great herbalist doctor from African who can cure Herpeewith his powerful herbal medicine. for the people suffering from the following diseases Hiv, Herpes, Cancer, Als,Herpatitis, Diabetes, Hpv,Infections ETC should contact him for his herbal medicine because i am a living testimony and i was cured of Herpes. Although, i sent him what he requested and he sent me his medicine which i took for two weeks and today when i went for test i was tested Herpes negative and he can also cure herpes etc you can reach him through his WhatsApp number:+2349019421176 he will help you out or email drodionherbalhome12@gmial.com*

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  145. I have been herpes positive for 7 years now and it has been a big problem to me. One day i came across a woman testimony on forum saying she get cured of her herpes with the help of Dr. Alabi herbal medicine at first i did not believe i was doubting because my doctor told me they is no cure for this disease,so i contacted him with the email the lady drop and write to him about my problems the he told me not to worry that am in the right place he told me what to do to get cured so i really did it few month later i went to the doctor and do a test and discover that am totally cured of my herpes then i wrote to him and thank him for curing me please are you out there I advice you to contact the great doctor know as Dr. Alabi i promise to always share what you did for me contact him via email (Dr.Alabiherbalhome@yahoo.com) You can also call Or whatsAPP him on +2347086180996.

    ReplyDelete
  146. When I found PRIEST WISDOM I was in desperate need of bringing my ex lover back. He left me for another woman. It happened so fast and I had no say in the situation at all. He just dumped me after 3 years with no explanation. I contacted PRIEST WISDOM  and He told me  what I need to do before he can help me and I did what he told me to, after I provided what he wanted, he cast a love spell to help us get back together. Shortly after he did his spell, my boyfriend started texting me again and felt horrible for what he just put me through. He said that I was the most important person in his life and he knows that now. We moved in together and he was more open to me than before and he started spending more time with me than before. Ever since PRIEST WISDOM helped me, my partner is very stable, faithful and closer to me than before. I highly recommend PRIEST WISDOM to anyone in need of help. Email: Supernaturalspell1@gmail.com . Call him or add him on whatsapp via: +2348124644470 PRIEST WISDOM BLOG PAGE: https://supernaturalspell21.blogspot.com/      



    When I found PRIEST WISDOM I was in desperate need of bringing my ex lover back. He left me for another woman. It happened so fast and I had no say in the situation at all. He just dumped me after 3 years with no explanation. I contacted PRIEST WISDOM  and He told me  what I need to do before he can help me and I did what he told me to, after I provided what he wanted, he cast a love spell to help us get back together. Shortly after he did his spell, my boyfriend started texting me again and felt horrible for what he just put me through. He said that I was the most important person in his life and he knows that now. We moved in together and he was more open to me than before and he started spending more time with me than before. Ever since PRIEST WISDOM helped me, my partner is very stable, faithful and closer to me than before. I highly recommend PRIEST WISDOM to anyone in need of help. Email: Supernaturalspell1@gmail.com . Call him or add him on whatsapp via: +2348124644470 PRIEST WISDOM BLOG PAGE: https://supernaturalspell21.blogspot.com/      

    .....

    ReplyDelete
  147. BEST NATURAL TREATMENT FOR HERPES earning that you have HERPES  can be one of the most difficult experiences you go through in life. You may feel scared, sad or even angry – this is OK, and a completely natural part of coping with something that can be life changing.
    It will probably take a while for the news to sink in.

    My name is Bella Panos  and i am from the United States.

    I remember spending so much money buying drugs from hospitals hoping that i will be cured from HERPES INFECTION, but all to no avail. I contacted so many  doctors and they prescribe medicine for me which they indeed tried their best but was unable to provide for me a possible cure, luckily i saw a comment about a herbal doctor, (Dr. Edidia) online.

    I then contacted him (Dr. Edidia) through his email, After much chat and enquiry with the doctor, i decide to take a leap of faith because i have nothing to loose.

    To my greatest surprise, Dr. Edidia prepare a medicine and  send me a Herbal Medicine through FEDEX courier Service, and he gave me guidelines on how am to take it. I followed all procedures as instructed, and after 2 weeks of taking it i was cure from HERPES  his medicine is legit and it is real.

    I just want to encourage all individuals out there living with HERPES , ITCHY SHINGLES , Genital Herpes, HSV1&2, HIV/AIDS/ HPV, COPD, CANCER, Hepatitis b, Lupus, PCOS, Kidney failure, Lung cancer and alot more. That there is still a huge chance that you can get cure only with the help of dr Edidia. kindly contact him via email: dredidiaherbalhome@gmail.com  or whatsapp +2349074505296. you can also visit hs website https://dredidiaherbalhome.simdif.com/
    here is my private email: bellapatos8@gmail.com    

    ReplyDelete
  148. I Want To Appreciate Dr OYAGU for his great deeds, I Was Diagnosed With type 2 Herpes Virus Last year,And i Was Looking For Solution To Be Cured Luckily I Saw Testimonies On How Dr OYAGU Cure Herpes Virus I Decided To Contact Dr OYAGU I Contacted Him He Prepared A Herbal Medicine Portion And Sent It To Me,I Started The Herbal Medicine For My Health.He Gave Me Step By Step Instructions On How To Apply It, When I Applied It As Instructed, I Was Cured Of This Deadly Herpes Within 2 weeks, I Am Now Herpes Negative.My Brother And Sister I No That There Are So Many People That Have The Same Herpes Virus Please contact Dr OYAGU To Help You Too,And Help Me To Thank Dr OYAGU For Cure Me, I’m Cured By Dr. OYAGU Herbal Medicine,His Contact Email:oyaguherbalhome@gmail.com
    Or Cell Whatsapp Number +2348101755322 thank you

    ReplyDelete
  149. Being heart broken isn't a thing of joy you know. My wife got me divorced after she caught me cheating on her with my ex lover. Was so ashamed and felt so disappointed in myself. I couldn't bear the fact that I no longer have a life partner so I decided to try to get my wife back with everything I could possibly do but nothing worked out. Not till I was referred to Dr. Ken who made what I thought was impossible to be possible by bringing back my wife within 48 hours after I made contact with him. I can boldly and joyfully say that my marriage is working just fine and more beautiful than before and I'm so happy to have gotten in contact with Dr. Ken for he's really a genius, Thanks to May Albert too for connecting me to Dr. Ken, If you have any issues regardless of how big it is, Dr. Ken will sort it out for you. His Email address; drkenlovespell@gmail.com Or call his whatsapp number on; +1(201) 992 1012 for urgent response.

    ReplyDelete
  150. I can't stop thanking iweagune who is a herbal Dr to cure my wife from hepatitis virus through herbal medicine contact him on his email:- driweagune@gmail.com or you can call/WhatsApp him :- +2348116955999 for hepatitis and other illnesses

    ReplyDelete
  151. Thanks to Dr iweagune just for helping me to cure my herpes disease, if you what to be free for your disease please contact him of his email:- driweagune@gmail.com or call/WhatsApp him :+2348116955999

    ReplyDelete
  152. I want to give a testimony on how I got cured from Herpes Virus. Few months back I was having some symptoms . I went to see a doctor and many blood tests was done on me, later on I was told I had Herpes. My doctor told me that there’s no cure for Herpes I felt bad, I went online searching for a possible cure for Herpes Virus, I saw a post of Dr.Ojamo a herbal doctor that’s helping people get cured from Herpes. I contacted him and told him how I’m feeling he said his herbal medicine can cure me. He sent me the medicine via UPS delivery service and I received the medicine in 8days after he sent it, i took the medicine as prescribed by him. Before the completion of the medication the symptoms stopped. I went to the doctor and carried out another blood test, surprisingly I was Negative. I haven’t had any symptoms anymore. Dr. Ojamo is great and you can contact him via dr.ojamoherbalhome@gmail.com or message him on via whatsApp at +2349077406037

    ReplyDelete
  153. Very usefull information about Architecture in Islamabad, Thanks for sharing. keep going on
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    Cheap structural engineering services

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  154. I'm Blessing by name, i was diagnosed with Herpes virus for 3 years, i lived in pain with the knowledge that i wasn't going to ever be well again i contacted so many herbal doctors on this issue and wasted a large sum of money but my condition never got better i was determined to get my life back so one day i saw Mr Brown post on how Dr Akuza saved him from the VIRUS with herbal medicine i contacted Dr Akuza. on his email address  (drakuzasolutioncenter@gmail.com)  we spoke on the issue i told him all that i went through and he told me not to worry that everything will be fine again so he prepared the medicine and send it to me through courier service and told me how to use it, after 14 days of usage I went to see the doctor for test, then the result was negative, am the happiest woman on earth now. This testimony is real. thanks to Dr Akuza. God bless you. you can also reach him on his whatsApp number +2348072437003...

    ReplyDelete
  155. Battling with any health related issues or infection is not the end of your life, why not contact a herbal practitioner for cure dr Maggi has herbal remedies and permanent solution for all your health related problems.I recommend him to you today only because i have also used his herbal medicine and it worked perfectly on my health problem, you can actually save yourself from giving your hard earned money to Scammers if only you can contact dr Maggi today for genuine and Permanent cure herbal products . Pls help share this post to save yourself and your love ones.Dr Maggi is specialize in these areas,Permanent herbal supplements for anxiety and depression,HIV/AIDS, Diabetes, Epilepsy, Blood, Cancer, HPV, ALS, herpes etc. Email: drmaggiherbalhome@gmail.com also call or whatsApp him on +19179796387

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  156. Never give up in life they all say no cure to HSV 2 which is a big lie I have pass through many process also i never believe there is really cure to HERPES until I meet Dr Shaibu the doctor that have been helping many people for many years, I came across this doctor online when I was searching for cure online I found out about this man, and to my greatest surprise this man have the herbal medicine which I have been looking for years I explain my problem to him through the email I found on someone who testify about him also, Dr Shaibu write me a reply and explain how the process work so after ordering for the medicine I got it within 4 days and I took it according to the way Dr Shaibu instructed, I was so happy after two week I took the medicine there was very big change in my health when I was done with the process I go for test, I found out I am negative that was the day I have the tears of joy you can also get in contact with my doctor through his email now drshaibuabacha@gmail.com or WhatsApp him +2349051727475. And He also have herbs medicine to cured the following diseases; eczema,urethra wart,chronic problems.Herpes, Cancer, Als,Hepatitis, Diabetes, HPV,Infections,ulcer  ETC

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