Michael Kors +21.5%, and why value investing is so hard

Overnight (I reside in Asia), Michael Kors (KORS US) announced an above-expectation fiscal 1Q18 result, which sent the stock up 21.5% to US$45.25. Comp sales still declined by about 5-6% YoY, but this was better than the c10% decline the market was expecting. Earnings declined by about 20% YoY as operating margins fell from about 18% to 15%, but EPS declines were only in the mid single digits, because the company has bought back so many shares over the past 12 months at such low prices (the stock has been trading at 5x EBITDA and a mid-teen FCF yield for most the past 12mths).

BMW & bargains in plain sight

If the bears are to be believed, we are living in a world of overvalued global markets inflated by excessive central bank stimulus, that offer investors the torturous combination of scant opportunity and substantial systemic risk. I do not see this narrative in my portfolio. Sure, there are parts of global markets that are expensive - notably yield-proxies, and parts of the tech industry. However, there are still plenty of bargains in other parts of the market hiding in plain sight.

The 'ick factor', and Ambac as an interesting long

I have found that a fruitful place to look for good investment ideas is amongst stocks that suffer from what might best be described as the 'ick factor' - i.e. it feels too icky to touch. And I have found that the more immediate and visceral the revulsion to the very idea of looking at a particular stock/industry/country, the better. The ideal reaction you want when you float an idea to most people is immediate disgust/dismissal. If you get that you're quite often on to something.

This is so for many reasons. For a start, it goes without saying that growth & fashion-chasing investors are unlikely to be interested in picking over dead carcasses, but the ick factor also means that a lot of otherwise intelligent and contrarian value investors, who generally act as the buyers of last resort in out of favor industries/stocks/countries, are also unlikely to even bother looking at it. This can result in larger-than-average degrees of undervaluation.

Time to take a punt on Nagacorp?

Nagacorp (3918 HK) is a company I have followed for a while. The company owns a first-class asset - an exclusive monopoly license to operate a hotel-casino in Cambodia's capital city Phnom Phen out until 2035 (which is built out and operational). The company has been growing like a weed, benefitting from growing tourism flows into Cambodia, and rising regional and (in particular) Chinese wealth (a key source of inbound tourism and gaming dollars).

The company took the significant downturn in Chinese VIP gambling activity in 2015-16 in its stride (which followed a Chinese corruption crack-down which hit Macau pretty hard), with the downturn barely registering in Nagacorp's financials. This reflected the property's mass-market appeal (about 50% of gross profit), coupled with its VIP positioning as something of a 'poor man's Macau' (although it has also been speculated that company has benefitted from Cambodia's somewhat more 'off the radar' location and lax oversight). The casino also benefits from gambling tourism from Vietnam, where until recently gambling was outlawed (a modest relaxation of these restrictions is currently being discussed/trialled).

Giving Money3 a wide berth

I recently took a quick look at ASX-listed Money3 (MNY AU). A well-known NZ-based small-cap outfit own it and have labelled it one of their top picks, and Ray Malone, of AMA Ltd fame (AMA AU), is also the (non-executive) Chairman. I have followed AMA for a long time and admire the company and what Malone has achieved with it, and made good money on the stock in the past (although I am long out of the stock now - I bought at 5c but sold way way too soon, at about 15c). MNY has also been growing quickly and the stock has done well over the past five years, and trades at superficially modest earnings multiples (a low teen forward earnings multiple, although closer to 2x book).

What I found horrified me, and it suffices to say that I won't be investing.

Fortress Investment Group; buying breakouts; position sizing; and perpetual self-loathing

I woke up to a pleasant but also slightly bittersweet surprise today over my morning coffee – overnight (I reside in Asia) Softbank had announced a bid to buy out Fortress Investment Group (FIG US) Class A shareholders @ US$8.08 a share. This was an approximate 40% premium to the stock’s previous price, and 66% above the levels prevailing at the commencement of 2017. 

FIG was a 1% position in the primary portfolio I manage (larger in some others), and was acquired in stages over the past six months at a US$5.21 average. I bought my base position (about half) at approximately US$5.00, and I then bought the break-out in January, doubling my position in the US$5.30-5.50 range. A 50-60% gain in less than six months is nice. But it's much nicer on a 5-10% position than a 1% position. I didn't know whether to celebrate or beat myself up for not buying more. More on that later.

Crisis investing, prejudice, 'blink' investing, and Ferrexpo as a compelling long

I like to go hunting for bargains in off-the-beaten-path places, and particularly in areas of distress. When a figurative financial bomb goes off, I like to run towards it.

This is not an exercise in financial masochism. There is a logic to this eccentric proclivity. If you take a look at a long term chart of the S&P 500, it is fairly obvious when the best times to buy were – they were during recessions and/or financial crises (e.g. 2000-03; 2008-09). That was when the best bargains were to be found. One option is to sit around and wait for a once-in-a-decade market downturn. Another is to actively seek out parts of the world where downturns are already in motion.

KORS 3Q result no kors for concern

The LT3000 Blog got off to a seemingly inauspicious start by posting a long thesis on KORS a day before the company’s 3Q result came in short expectations, sending the stock down as much as 15% intra-day (10% by the close). I increased my position by 50% at close to the daily lows of $35, reducing my average in to US$39, and increasing the position size to 25bp of the fund. The stock is trading up today early in the session at US$38, against a weak broader market, so my position is only marginally underwater at present.

The 3Q result itself was actually broadly in line with expectations. While headline sales and operating margins were down YoY, this was already baked into guidance/estimates. Comp sales declined slightly faster than expected (6-7%, vs. 5-6% expectations), but quarterly earnings actually beat street estimates by a penny. The real issue was weaker 4Q outlook commentary, where the company guided for an accelerated low-teen decline in comp sales in 4Q, and reduced its 2017 fiscal EPS guidance from about US$4.40 to about US$4.20.

Beijing Capital International Airport: Ready for take-off

Over the past few months, I have accumulated a 70bp position in Beijing Capital International Airport (694 HK) at an average price of HK$7.50, and continue to nibble at the position on weakness. Given the right opportunities to add, I can see this growing into a core portfolio holding in time. I believe the stock to be attractive, trading at a FCF yield of 8-9% and a forward FY17E PE multiple (on conservative assumptions) of 15x. Here is why.

BCIA operates the world’s second busiest airport, with annual passenger throughput of some 90m people. Airports are generally great tollgate-type businesses that have delivered outstanding risk-adjusted returns for long-term shareholders. One need look no further than the long term share price charts of the likes of Sydney Airport, Auckland International Airport, or Airports of Thailand or Malaysia for evidence of that. Multiples of 30-40x are not uncommon, as investors have come to appreciate the high value of these assets.

Michael Kors is out of fashion

I recently initiated a 20bp position in Michael Kors (KORS US @ $41.09) – the global luxury goods company run (Chief Creative Director) by its eponymous founder. My entire research process took less than an hour, and illustrates nicely one of the investment philosophies I have developed over the years – that more information does not necessarily lead to better decisions or better investment outcomes. One doesn’t have to know everything or even a lot to make money in markets in my view – only what is important. Indeed, it is arguable that being able to block out irrelevant noise is equally essential.

First things first – KORS screens very well using Joel Greenblatt’s ‘magic formula’ – the stock is trading on a 9x trailing PE ratio, and generates an extremely high ROE of approximately 40-50%. Indeed, the stock screens in the top 5% of companies in the S&P500 on this measure. Greenblatt has argued that a mechanical quantitative approach to buying stocks that screen well on these two combined metrics – using earnings yield as a proxy for ‘cheapness’, and ROE as a proxy for ‘quality’ – has historically trounced the market. It is always comforting to know, when selecting your preferred bottom up picks, that you are selecting from a pool of potential opportunities where the odds are likely skewed in your favour. That certainly does not guarantee a good outcome, but it does increase the probability of one materially.